DAILY E-LETTERS

APRIL 2000

04/28/00

          Since it is Friday, range bound markets and bad time to buy options, I will address one of my favorite trading tools-the STOP. Just the word often sends a trader into shock and nobody wants to get stopped out but the fact remains that if you are analyzing the market properly and move the stop according to your levels of support/resistance then you WILL find that being "stopped out" is not always the worst case scenario. By placing a STOP when entering a trade you are planning on taking a "predetermine" loss if you are WRONG in your play. No STOP is ever TOO close since five minutes later the market may be twice as much against you. Also do not be shy in QUICKLY move the stop as your trade becomes profitable since reducing the risk is often as important as targeting a profit. A goo example is my Soy Bean trade from yesterday. I was buying on a pullback at 549 1/4 with a stop at 546 1/4. Market filled me with a low of 549 and bounced to 551. I Immediately move my stop to 5493/4 sensing that if the went back to test the lows they would drop farther. Story ends with beans hitting 543 and a SCRATCH trade is better than any LOSER.

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CRUDE OIL-rebounded yesterday and I am RE-mentioning it today because the CALLS seem very UNDER PRICED in the JUNE contract. Though they (2700 and 2750 strikes) seem WAY out-of-the-money since OIL is at approx $25 a barrel then a $2.50 move is just 10% which in three weeks time is not too far for this market to move $180 and $110 should get you one of each.

04/27/00

           My staff is pressuring me to "beat the Drums" and recap this week's prognostications. Monday was short and sweet, on a 1.00 point dip BUY May Pork bellies at 96.50 with a target of 100.00 ($1.00 per pound 100 points =$400). Well Wed. high was???? 100.05!!! Tuesday (sent Mon Night) we touted Buy Copper on the open (76.60) with an objective of 79.10. High that day was 79.00 but hit 79.20 (and then SOLD OFF) Yesterday That was a $500 + move. We stayed HOT Wed. writing that the Yen would be a good BUY if if dropped (60 points) to 9452. The LOW was 9450 and it settled 50 points ($625) higher. Even in the US Bonds (which I usually use as an Indicator) our Bounce/retrace numbers were 9701 and 9719, they traded 9630 to9717back to 9626, our original stop reverse point. UNDERSTAND that no account I advise received ALL these price fills and My ACCURATE predictions in the past few days (Weeks?) do not necessarily imply that my futures forecasts will be as "Top Dead-Center Correct" That is for you to decide by following the "GLASS".
On to the Trades. GDP and employment figures will be released at 8:30 so I can not give accurate rec's on financials and stock indexes.

SOY BEANS-dropped to take out some weak longs before possible assault on the recent highs at 554 (may) . Will be trading the JULY contract here on in as the First Notice day for May futures is this Friday. (I still use the MAY as my charting indicator) On a DAYTRADE BUY JULY at 549 1/4 with a standard 3 cent stop. Optionwise still too much "juice" in the June CALLS and would wait until next Monday to get back in.

CRUDE OIL-got heavy Bearish news from both the API on tues night and the DOE (Dept of Energy) yesterday which helped trash the market well below $25.00 per barrel (24.66) Three weeks in the JUNE options and I always like the counter-trend trade when I can get CALLS. BUY the JUNE 2600 CALL for 22 points ($220).

04/26/00

      There are many new visitors so clients please excuse a quick commercial. I, Michel (like in the Beatles tune) Saponara am a Commodities trader with International Futures in NYC. These E-letters allow me to communicate my views of 23 markets to both clients and subscribers. Are they Informative? Educational? Humorous? Most times. The BIG question is do they make $$$??? That is what you are here to see. I present 2-5 market trades a day as well as insight to upcoming reports and Fundamental and Technical analysis. Not all my trades become "activated" every day and since I trade accounts of ALL SIZES I indicate Sell option strategies for large clients, Daytrading for active traders and mostly Buying short-term options properly priced and timed before Key reports or during "cleanouts" or "retracements". The majority of these strategies involve RISK of $250 or LESS. On to the TRADES

US BONDS-have dropped 1 1/4 % points in past two weeks and a Bounce could be expected at 97.00. If BUYING at 97.01 use a tight stop at 96.26 with a modest target of 97.19. Caution should be exercised as this market seems to be head back to the 95.16 level barring any "unforeseen" rate announcements.

NASDAQ-left a seldom seen ISLAND BOTTOM (GAP down then GAP up) with a bullish
HAMMER on Monday. True breakout point is 3785 which could mean a return to the 4300 area. Would want to be DAYTRADING from the long side but expect 3750 as a short term resistance point.

JYEN-has faint triple bottom except that each LOWs are HIGHER than the previous which is slightly bullish. BUY the dip down to 9452 with a tight (for the YEN) stop REVERSE at 9411. Look to pick up 80 points and SELL at 9532.

04/25/00

         Too many investors are pleased that they were not "wiped out" after April 14ths "BIG " selloff yet they do not seem to realize that NO ONE was happy about several down days prior to this DROP and the market is BELOW that level today. The charts are pointing toward some large ranges and a possible retest of recent LOWS. Though expensive Index PUTS may be some good "insurance" against the balance of your portfolio's. Just a reminder.
Quick Note about daytrading and the levels I provide. First Do NOT use round numbers to enter the limit orders. In the Pork Bellies Monday I stated the 9650 was the "Bounce" area (low for day). Regular followers know we place the orders at 9652-57 to insure getting filled. Likewise our STOPS are placed on the OTHER side of these significant numbers. Second when DAYTRADIING with specific parameters if the play is not Activated by a certain time (usually after NOON) we CANCEL and wait for another day. Such was the situation in the SOY BEAN on Monday when we were selling at 539 3/4. This price was hit but not until LATE in the afternoon (after it should have been voided). Sometimes it is the little things that help make trades winning ones or help us avoid losers. On to the TRADES.

ORANGE JUICE-posted three down days and appears headed toward forming a Double Bottom at 8140. June 8500 CALLS,at this level, should go for 75 points ($1.50 per) and have ample time to come in the money. If position trading at the DB use a STOP-REVERSE at 8040 with a target of 7850.

COPPER-left a Bull "hammer" formation (open and close at high of range) which is similar to a "cleanout". Long term down trendline and recently left "gap" meet at about the same place,79.10, and may see momentum then take out 80.00 BUYING MAY at the settlement, 76.60 with a stop at 75.85 is a solid move. Optionwise, MAY expires Tuesday 4/25 and I do not like the copper serial June because of its THINNESS.

CRUDE OIL-was almost silent with its 36 cent range. API report comes out Tuesday night (as always) and the market is waiting for MORE bullish news. I think they will get it. JUNE options are expensive due to the large (for me) amount of time remaining (3 weeks and two days) but if the market "softens" to 2560 the JUNE 2750 CALLS for $210 are a bargain.

04/24/00

     Dow "ZIGGED" and Nasdaq "ZAGGED" on Thursday (seems like a long time ago) but both are "soft" in the overnight trading with the S&P down 10 points. Europe is enjoying a holiday today which may attribute to light currency trading after the opening bell. Tuesday holds the first economic numbers for this week when the Consumer Confidence Index is released and is expected to be off just .2 while existing Home Sales dropped to 4.67 mill from last month's 4.75 mill. Durable Goods orders (WED) are projected UP 1.5% compared with NEG 2.3% previously and on Thurs. GDP (advance) for the first quarter may come in at 6.0% verses a 7.3% last time. Personal Income and Personal Production (+0.6% and +0.5%) on Friday are mixed.
On to the TRADES.

PORK BELLIES-and the rest of the MEAT complex have enjoyed a nice BULL run the past few weeks and though the prices seem high technicals point toward a continuation of this trend. While daytrading the PB insures a wild and stressful day a pullback to 96.50 in the MAY contract (settled at 97.65) with a stop at 95.85 is a good start to take advantage of the "quest for $1.00" which may be touched this week. Still like the JUNE LIVE CATTLE to break 70 cents (72 CALLS for 30 points)

GRAINS-test the cash market later this week as Friday is First Notice Day in the May
contracts. With adequate planting conditions throughout the country one could expect a sharp drop (10 cents in beans?) in prices over the next two days which could lower the prices of some of the JUNE options that I am targeting. For today SHORT the MAY SOY BEAN at 539 3/4 with a 542 1/4 stop. Stick with LONG CORN/SHORT WHEAT for the rest of the week.

COCOA-has almost no Open Interest in the expiring MAY contract and coupled with the
continued downward pressure that has been prevalent for months can't see this market rallying TOO MUCH. SELL JULY COCOA at 852 with an 861 stop and seek to BUY JUNE 800 PUTS for 10 points ($100)

SILVER-was listed as a "Quick Note" on WED last week, mentioning that Mexico, the world's largest producer, would be increasing SUPPLY 5-10% and to BUY PUTS. Thursday had a significant dip in price and 492 seems like an apparent target bounce area. June 500 PUTS still not TOO expensive and could be a good "set-up" play (buy options now and use futures later).

UPTREND MARKETS
LIVE CATTLE, LEAN HOGS, CANADIAN DOLLAR,SOY BEANS, CRUDE OIL, SUGAR
DOWN TREND MARKETS
COTTON, COCOA,SILVER,NASDAQ, COPPER.

4/20/00

       It hardly seems possible that the Stock Market could get any more dangerous but today holds a fine mixed bag of events. Not enough that it will be a three day weekend or that today is OPTION EXPIRATION in the Stock indexes and US BONDS but it is also the three year anniversary of a BIG sell off in the Market. Back when the S&P traded in the 800 range it experienced a 10% drop on this date. I would use extreme caution in DAYTRADING the index's today as often many large institutional traders OFFSET their options positions with Futures contracts and cause large fluctuations.
        Usually do NOT like to BUY options on a Friday (loss of time value over weekend) and with shortened market hours, option expirations (grains, stocks,bonds) and a THREE day weekend our advice will be limited today.On to the trades.

COFFEE-sits below $1.00 and is approaching a seasonal play with winter just around the corner in the Southern Hemisphere. With hints of a slow down in Sugar exports the same may result for CAFE'. July, in the past, has seen this market explode ('97) and while I am NOT looking for $3.00 coffee if feel that the 115 and 120 CALLS for JULY have good value at 100 and 50 points each (100 points equals $375). Stash them for an icy day.

04/19/00

      My strategy of trading "very"(to most) Short-term options (1-3 weeks avg.) is often a
"HARD SELL" to most investors. The concept of timing a market so as to pick a spot where a "big" move will occur is not easy but does occur quite often. Investors who speak with me need to be convinced that it is not only possible but many times probable that markets that show high volatility and a large range recently will follow that trend, even in the opposite direction. This week highlights a "perfect" example of this type of trading. On Monday (as well as on Friday's CLOSE) I recommended BUYING the APRIL (expires on Thursday) CALLS for the Stock Index's based on several factors (check web site). Early Mon Morning the DOW Jones was sitting at 10,370 and the 10,800 Calls (over 400 points OUT-OF-THE-MONEY) traded for $300. Yesterday (24 hours later) the settled at $1385. This type of trade (weather it is in the Stock Indexes or Soy Beans) can be played each and every month (serial options) and while it is not always a winning play (nothing ever is) the risk/return allows for conservative money management while maximizing profit potential. Still opportunity to "replay" this type of trade for the rest of the week.
GRAIN STOCK INDEXES AND NY MARKETS have regular closings on THURSDAY. Meats and Currencies close at NOON CHICAGO TIME and CME and CBOT financial at 12:10.On to the TRADES.

STOCK INDEXES-may "soften" a bit after two( THREE?) record days in a row and while the upside remains the main play a STRANGLE (one put one call at separate strikes) seems to be the trade of the day. By "legging in" (placing low prices for each option and waiting for each side to be "filled") we may get the 11,000 APRIL DOW CALL and the 10,600 PUT for $200 each. With only 34 hours left till expiration if either of our strike reach in-the-money status by 35 points we will offset with a future contract.

GRAINS-seem to be range bound as the MAY option nears expiration (tomorrow). Still like the L-CORN/S-WHEAT spread from monday and am looking to BUY the JUNE serial options in the SOY BEANS which trade off of the JULY contract. 550 calls for 5 cents ($250) is more than a fair price as the "planting season" often bring fast and erratic movements with slight weather changes.

SUGAR-has set off numerous buy signals as demand seems to be picking up in India and the Far East. If Russia ever gets back in the ball game we could see 7 1/2 cents in the July contract. Look for a retracement down to 622 and BUY the JUNE 650 CALLS for 18 points and the JULY 700 CALLS for the same premium.

QUICK NOTES
LIVE CATTLE-took out contract highs (april) and should continue strong JUNE 72 CALLS 30 points ($120)
COCOA-under delivery pressure becomes a SELL at 872 (MAY). BUY JUNE 850 PUTS 12 points ($120)
SILVER-supply by Mexico increased 12% BUY JUNE PUTS 500 3 cents ($150)
CAN$-open interest surged on dip signals strength BUY MAY 6800 calls $140 14 points.

04/17/00

         One out of every two "investors" have said that they see "great buying opportunities" in the wake of Friday's stock market debacle. That would be true if you have NO investments that have been pounded this week, otherwise it becomes a simple case of "doubling up" on a losing trade (a BIG no-no in my rule book). It seems that with Europe in a slight state of panic overnight we will have another drop early this morning and many are "hoping" (another word we hate) for a strong rebound after that. If that is the scenario that you feel will occur then the best way to take advantage of it (especially in the short term) would be in the INDEX OPTIONS (April) which expire on Thursday. CALLS will be inexpensive (due to lack of time and trend) and could provide a quick windfall recovery. While it may be too late for many, the Index PUTS have always been used by Fund managers to "hedge" their portfolios and if a market retracement occurs look at the MAY options for this type of "insurance".  Relatively "slow" week for economic data (beside earnings reports). Housing starts and Building Permits are out on Tuesday (HS down .07 mill and BP up .02 mill) and International Trade on Wed may be down .9 BILL. FRIDAY is a HOLIDAY and there will be early closings on Thursday which I will provide later in the week. On to the TRADES.

STOCK INDEXES- specifically the DOW JONES and S&P should at least continue to have a very LARGE trading range (HIGH VOLATILITY) which always makes the options plays more lucrative. It is impossible to gauge a price on any strike at this time but as a guideline if the market(dow) drops 100 points look for CALLS within 200 points for about $150-$300 and see what tomorrow brings (S&P would translate into a strike about 40 points away.

GRAINS-are see-sawing with the erratic weather patterns that are key to the planting season. While I still feel that UP is the direction the Beans and Corn will take the short term Double-top left by the May Bean signals a retest of the lows this week. Options on the MAY contracts expire on Thursday and 530 PUTS for 4 1/2 cents have good value. LONG CORN/SHORT WHEAT should prove profitable for the next three days.

04/14/00

     Tax deadline is Monday but first the country has to survive the Stock market slide. Nasdaq is off 27% from its highs and "BIG AL" must not have much cash in the equities as his comments did no help (unless you are a BEAR) CPI will be released today as well as Business Inventories and Industrial Production. Now Week to go on the APRIL S&P and DOW JONES OPTIONS. On to the TRADES.

S&P has had a small "bounce" in the over night (up 4 points) but the next support level is not until 1435 (at 1460 now) if that area is reached today SELLING PUTS for the APRIL options will garner some "juicy" premium. Note MOST (not all) times the market tends to trade UPWARD as expiration of the options near. BUYING calls at the CLOSE today may prove quite beneficial. S&P 1470 call should be moderately priced if 1435 trades).

QUICK NOTES
BEANS-up in the overnight signal retest of 554 DT-BUY 539 1/2 STOP 536.
COCOA-first notice day breakout if 822 trades again.
SUGAR-SELL opening ABOVE 628 with stop at 641.
JYEN-looking at triple top next week distant 9900 call not outlandish.
CRUDE-options expire today look for 2500 settlement DT sell 2559 STOP 2572

EXPIRING OPTIONS
SILVER, GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COTTON, Lean HOG, all FRIDAY
DOW JONES and S&P next Thursday (friday is a holiday)

04/13/00

Of all the technical formations-Double Tops, Flags, Pennants, Inverted Head and
Shoulders-My "Best Bet" tends to be the TRIPLE BOTTOM. A support point is established in a downtrend and after a retracement (usually 30%) support is Retested (double-Bottom). It is the Third time this price is reached that triggers a Big selloff (every STOP "in the world" is below this support). Yesterday the S&P was a perfect example of this set-up. Tuesday's LOW was 1498.00 and Wed. early in the morning tested and hit 1497.50 (double bottom in place) Later in the afternoon the market hit a third time at 1497.00 and the next stop was 1479. 20 points (even in a mini s&p AIN"T BAD)  PPI is released at 8:30 am est and Retail Sales later this morning On to the trades.

SOY BEANS-now have tuesday's bears on my "bandwagon" (see weds GLASS on WEB) and I hope you loyal followers picked up the "cheap" CALLS as I am looking to see the 554 recent highs tested (may see a double top soon). May get a chance to DAYTRADE on a slight retest of 535. BUY at 535 1/4 the MAY BEAN with a stop at 532 3/4 and an objective of 10 cents.

CRUDE OIL-has been a mover and now that it broke the $25.00 level again (see TUES-GLASS) we will AGAIN play the TWO DAY OPTION and BUY the 2500 MAY PUT for $140 which may be filled if 2550 trades early this morning. LONG GASOLINE and SHORT HEATING OIL is a standard seasonal play at this time of the year but is OVERBOUGHT so DO THE OPPOSITE in the MAY CONTRACT.

COFFEE-has dropped significantly below the $1.00 level and with weather uncertainties on the horizon and the "normal" volatility of this South American Bean it is an IDEAL time to get into a LONG TERM OPTION position. Though it seems like an impossible area I like the JULY CALL strike 120 for less than 1 penny $375.

EXPIRING OPTIONS
COFFEE- Wed
SILVER, GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COTTON, Lean HOG, all FRIDAY
DOW JONES and S&P next Thursday (friday is a holiday)

04/12/00

     Three main things to consider when selecting a specific market to DAYTRADE. First the expected RANGE that can potentially trade. This gives us an idea of the amount of profit that may be taken and the total risk that is comfortable. BIG difference between risking $150 in COCOA (which may be half the days average range) and the same amount in the NASDAQ (which could last 3 min). Second is What is the short and mid-term trends and are they the same. Often a market will "retrace" the previous days moves and then continue in the opposite direction allowing for a "gap" trade. A third factor, which comes into play after the market has open and traded for a while, is Where are all the STOPS. This is a major factor in my system since the "floor" tends to "hunt" for these stop, especially on slow days. Keep in mind that proper use of Risk and Stops is key to
successful daytrading. Never let a good winner become a Loser. If you do not take Quick profits at least bring up your stop to a breakeven level a "scratch" is better than ANY loser. On to the TRADES.

SOY BEANS-received "surprise" news about South American Crop Production (more beans than expected) but did not react till midday and did NOT take out the previous LOWS. Given the "data" released and today's WSJ touting a RECORD PLANTING season one would expect the beans to tumble back to $5.00. Not ONEglass though. Seems to easy and everybody is all of a sudden Bearish. Take advantage of this drop and Speculate on the MAY CALLS 540 @ 4 cents and 550 @ 2 1/4. On a DAYTRADE BUY MAY at 524 1/4 with a tight stop at 522 even.

LIVE CATTLE-did it to me again as the CALLS we owned expire almost worthless on Friday and since the market has traded up almost a penny (75 points) in the APRIL. June Options are still a fine investment as the price of that contract is well below the front month April. BUY 7200 JUNE CALLS for 25 points $100 and sit back till "the steaks hit the barbie".

QUICK NOTES-
CAN $-pull back options low priced BUY MAY 6900 CALLS 15 ($150)
SILVER-with PPI out tomorrow BUY 525 MAY CALLS for 2 cents ($100)
S&P- BUY break-out (enter on STOP) at 1529.75 exit 1541.50 stop at 1526.75
EXPIRING OPTIONS
COFFEE- Wed
SILVER, GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COTTON, Lean HOG, all FRIDAY
DOW JONES and S&P next Thursday (friday is a holiday)

04/11/00

Bears are growling as another Tuesday will begin to unfold after a BIG drop in the Nasdaq
on a Monday. Energy prices tumbling have helped the Dow Industrials hold their heads above water but the pressure is on in all sectors even though many 1st quarter earnings figures are expected to be favorable. Could have a replay of last week when nasdaq rallied 75 points early only to get "trashed" by Noon.  Due to the release of the USDA reports this morning there will be no analysis of markets that it will affect but "go with the TREND" after the opening of Grains and Cotton. On to the TRADES.

CRUDE OIL-is rapidly approaching the "target low" of $22.00 a barrel set by OPEC. API
numbers are released tonight and are expected to show an increase in supply, but is it enough to prevent ANY retracement of this markets $7.00 drop in price over the past few weeks?? OPTIONS expire on Friday (for MAY) and with Crude set to open at 23.80 BUYING the2450 CALLS for $160 each (16 points) could set us up for multiple plays in this volatile market for the rest of the week.

SILVER and GOLD-have been hinting that INFLATION is back in the neighborhood. Both these markets may experience a good amount of activity this week as both the PPI (thurs) and CPI (Fri) are released AND the MAY OPTIONS expire on friday. 285 GOLD CALL is less than $150 as is the 525 SILVER CALL, both of which could quickly be "in-the-money".

S&P-daytrade numbers will be activated by entering positions on a STOP to go long at 1527.50 and short at 1512.75. If filled use a 3 point stop ($150 in the mini) I prefer a couple of mini's verses one BIG one.
EXPIRING OPTIONS
COFFEE WED 4/12
SILVER<GOLD< COTTON< SUGAR<L HOGS ALL EXPIRE ON FRIDAY 4/14

04/10/00

Early part of the week will be dominated by earnings reports and then Thursday and Friday
are packed with economic numbers and "BIG AL's" next speech.. Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected lower at +0.5% from 1.0% last month and Retail Sales decreased to .2% (1.1% prev) Friday the CPI comes out slated at unchanged with Business Inventories and Industrial Production also at UNCH. Tuesday the Monthly USDA CROP production numbers are released and Weds. the World figures and Import/export data will have additional affect on Grains and Foods. On to the TRADES.

COCOA-options for the May contract expired on Friday and now I expect this market to trade down to the 750 area. First notice day is on Friday which historically pushes the cocoa up a little but the move should be done by then. SELL 811 stop 821 MAY.

SOYBEAN-have "bounced" (as forecast friday) and are now poised to launch a run at the recent highs (may) of 554. Crop report due tomorrow (8:30 am est) could cause some fireworks and the least expensive way to take advantage will be the MAY 575 CALLS for 2 cents $100 which have two weeks till expiration.

QUICK NOTES
SUGAR-run may be over SHORT 599 look for 550 to trade.
CRUDE-trend still down API tues look at 2450 MAY PUTS $180.
COFFEE-two days in option 97.50 put for 50 points.
COTTON-AG report may give this market life 5700 CALLS 25 points ($125)

EXPIRING OPTIONS
COFFEE WED 4/12
SILVER<GOLD< COTTON< SUGAR<L HOGS ALL EXPIRE ON FRIDAY 4/14

04/07/00

Today we become a "true" WALL STREET firm. International Futures and "ONEGLASS" will now be located at 82 Wall suite 200, NY NY 10005. The PASSWORD will also be changed at NOON and those who do not receive it but feel they should please contact ME. On to the TRADES.

COPPER-Broke Fractal and triggered stops and program selling and seems headed toward 75 cents per lb. Open Interest did not rise much and fundamentals are bullish. DAYTRADERS can SHORT @ 7695 with a stop at 7755 ($150) LONG TERM I would BUY the JULY 8200 CALLS for 1 cent ($250) which would be filled only when 75.00 trades. Why not the JUNE options??? Unlike most serial options, which convert to the the main trading contract Copper has a LIGHTLY traded JUNE contract so we will avoid it.

SOY BEANS-may or may not have finished their retracement but next week has TWO big report releases, Tues USDA Crop Production and Wed WORLD #'s, and the CALLS (to which I am partial) WILL be a good BUY especially if the BEANS trade down to 525 today. The 550 calls (for MAY) may be had for 3 1/2 cents and the 540 (yes 540) could go for 5 cents (each penny is
worth $50).

EXPIRING OPTIONS
COCOA, CURRENCIES, and LIVE CATTLE on FRIDAY.

04/06/00

         What's the "best" way to approach TRADING??? Depends on your definition. I often feel "safe" trading with LONG "short-term" OPTIONS is an excellent place to start. Limiting risk and preserving capital in this method is not always conservative because given the short life of the option a 2-3 day trend change leaves it worthless or a winner with 3-5 times what we paid. This is why we attempt not to spend "too much" on the initial premium so losses in 2 markets can be offset by 1 winner.
            Initial Jobless claims are expected slightly higher in this mornings data release. Next TUESDAY will be the Monthly USDA Crop production report that should stir things up in the Grains, Cotton, and OJ. Inflationary reports PPI and CPI will be released next Friday and should affect the already volatile METALS markets. On to the TRADES.

SILVER-has hit a weak double top and may retreat again to the sub-$5.00 level. On a
DAYTRADE SELL MAY 518.50 with a stop REVERSE at 521. The $5.00 MAY PUTS CAN BE HAD FOR 2 1/2 CENTS AS MAY THE 525 CALLS, Thus the STRANGLE for $250 is a very good play today.

COFFEE-options have one week till expiration and with a 5 cent range yesterday this market may be poised for an even bigger move. The 105 MAY calls settled "high" at 1.50 (coffee is $375 per 1.00) but place a BUY order at 75 and possibly get filled if the market opens and remains "flat" for a few hours.

QUICK NOTES
LIVE CATTLE-keeps "hanging" at 72.00, 2 day option BUY 7200 calls 20 ($80)
SUGAR-SELL gap up at 618 and pick up 600 PUTS for 8 points ($100)
COCOA-look for double top SELL 824 stop 831 BUY 800 PUTS 7 ($70)
BEANS-4 lower in overnight BUY double bottom at 529 and 550 calls at 5 cents

04/05/00

                     " Last week "experts" were citing the "correction" of 10%
                      on the Nasdaq and while I did not want to argue I use about
                              30% as a retracement level for for technical analysis."
                                                                                                    oneglass 4/4
Just wanted to reprint yesterday's comments and for those who missed it the NASDAQ hit
29.6% down before it launched its rebound. Did YOU go LONG??? The ripple affect was felt throughout the Futures markets as an OPTION player's "best friend", VOLATILITY, was and IS at the forefront (gold $10 range, Soy Beans 20 cents, Crude $1.00) and should continue. On to the trades.

COCOA- has "rumors and fears" circulating about quality of deliverable product and workers revolting (as compared to "revolting workers") this "hype" has been seen before and FAILED so on a small continued rally SELL MAY 821 with a tight stop at 829 (risk $80) or BUY the three day MAY 800 PUT for $60.

SOY BEANS- did way more than just fill the "gap" at 539 and took out weak longs all the way down to 529 giving us the long awaited moment to "get in" to the short and mid-term options before closing back up to the 539 area. Market should now continue its climb and retest the 554 highs by Friday. BUY the 575 MAY CALLS for 3 cents or (on a 5 cents pull back) the more expensive 550 CALLS for 5 1/4 cents.

QUICK NOTES-
CRUDE-may test $25, BUY $26 calls for $200 (MAY)
COTTON- not to lively but with potential 5900 CALLS for 20 points $100.
SWISS FRANC-6150 calls (april) work yesterday 6150 PUTS 15 points today.

04/04/00
Yesterday became the definitive "anything can happen" day as the DOW soared 300
points and the NASDAQ slumped and equal amount. Last week "experts" were citing the
"correction" of 10% on the Nasdaq and while I did not want to argue I use about 30% as a
retracement level for for technical analysis. I am not defiantly saying that the TECH sector still has a 14% drop due but signals point to a continued fall (BOUNCE of 100 points is due today). On to the TRADES.

CURRENCIES-especially the JYEN is in the midst of a wild week. The intervention by the Gov't on behalf of the YEN halted its run toward 100Y=$1 and the Prime Minister in a coma is additional downward pressure (down 70 more points in the overnight) OPTIONS expire on Friday (in ALL currencies) and this is the time to get involved for a minimum risk. CALLS are not "cheap" due to the volatility but they are reasonable. Work an order to BUY 9800 APRIL CALLS for 18 points (settled at 44) $225 and look at the SWISS FRANC 6150 CALLS for 12 points $150.

SUGAR-surged on Friday and "cleaned-out" weak longs on the opening yesterday (dropped to 573 and rallied back to unchanged) and with 2 weeks left in the MAY option BUYING 2 600 CALLS for 11 points ($11.20 per) and looking to SELL one MAY future at 611 would allow you to trade both sides of a market with potential to trade 40 points to either side of 6.00 cents.

WHEAT-has not enjoyed the run-up that sister grains Corn and Beans have which defines it as WEAK. Trading at 257 3/4 the DAYTRADE is SELL MAY WHEAT at 259 3/4 with a tight stop at 262 1/4 (risk approx $125) or BUY the 250 MAY (two weeks and four days till EX) PUTS for 3 cents ($150).

04/03/00

A new Quarter begins and earnings reports will start to be released. Purchasing Managers
Survey will appear today (57.0 up from 56.9) as will construction spending (-0.5% from +2.7%).  Leading Indicators are expected LOWER on Tuesday (-0.3% from +0.3%) and it is not till Friday's Unemployment Numbers (4.0% expected from last month's 4.1%) that additional data is reported. 

The Michigan State SPARTANS take the floor for the NCAA championship tonight. 21 years ago I was a student and watched "MAGIC" and Co. lead the green and white to victory over Larry the legend (MR. BIRD now) I see the same results. A ROMP BY THE SPARTANS. GO GREEN GO WHITE. 'NUFF said.

CRUDE OIL- and it's Cartel ministers have decreed that production quotas and increases will be based on the market price. They have created a "BAND"(and we are not talking Rock n Roll) with which they "intend" to maintain the $ value per barrel. At $28.00 production will be increased and if the price is seen to be dipping below $22 CUTSwill be implemented. Does this mean We (commodity speculators) can SELL 2900 CALLS and 2100 PUTS with NO FEAR??? I doubt it cause it sounds TOO EASY. The API will be released on Tuesday and should give a good trend indication. Meanwhile I like the 2500 MAY PUTS for $170 and two weeks till expiration.

JYEN-has certainly caught peoples eyes jumping UP as much as 300 points on Friday and is NOW down 240 points today. OPTIONS expire on Friday (one week puts last Friday would have paid off GOOD {see BIG short term moves ARE very possible}) ANYTHING may be possible the rest of the week but I like the CALLS that are being abandoned as I write. BUY the 9750 CALL (50 points) and SELL the 9900 CALL (35 points) for a total expense of 15 points with an up side potential of 135 points ($12.50 per).

SOYBEANS-are soaring (up 5 cents in the overnight) and MAY refill the 'GAPS" it left on Friday so as to allow us to BUY more CALLS (575 for 3 cents) or go long futures (MAY) at 539 1/2.

EXPIRING OPTIONS
COCOA, CURRENCIES, and LIVE CATTLE on FRIDAY.