MAY

05/31/00

      Pick up a newspaper today and read about the amazing NASDAQ and its record up move yesterday (254 points 7.94%) but do not believe that the Bears have been "chased into the woods" yet. Technically this market has moved to the upper level of the DOWN TREND and my expectations are for a continued drop to retest LOWS from last week (2905) and then some.  Leading indicators (today), Purchasing Managers Index (THUR), and Unemployment data (FRI) will prove to be pivotal.   Market is slightly off this morning (down 35 points) and MAY experience a "bounce" if it drops another 70 points (at 3310). On to the TRADES.

COCOA- straddles the two week high/low range (803/874) at 830 and with the popular JULY option expiring on Friday expect some action the next few days. I see a Head and Shoulders forming first and then a sell-off which will open up a variety of strategies. Since I anticipate 854 to trade by tomorrow today we will BUY three 850 JULY CALLS for 6 points each ($10 per point). If our target (854) is hit we will SELL one FUTURE and one option (for about 29 points) and thus play with both side of the market for the remainder of the week eventually seeking a test of 800 where we would exit the short future contract.

COPPER-was dragged down by news of an increase of nickel supplies yet the technicals remain strong to the upside. Almost an entire month in the JULY options (SO much time!) which is a "luxury" I am not accustomed to but one we can live with. On a dip towards testing the 80.00 cent level BUY ONE JULY 8200 CALL for 120 points and TWO 8400 CALLS for 70 points each (total $650). Contract highs near 90.00 cents is not unattainable.

QUICK NOTES
COTTON-filled "gap" and now headed for 60.00 LOOK for BOUNCE.
SUGAR-Strong but in need of a "cleanout" to 742 then BUY AGAIN.
CRUDE OIL- indicators point toward $34 a barrel. BUY dip to 2972 JULY
JYEN-SHORT term PUTS the play. EXPIRE on FRIDAY 9250 for 22 points

05/30/00

       The Cyclical trends that constantly dominate the Futures market are never more apparent than during a "weather hype" like the upcoming drought forecasts. As an example the Soy Beans sky rocketed up 30 cents during the planting season and have now tumbled below previous lows (520 in JULY) since the planting is done and the next foreseeable damage will not come until the last week's of JUNE. NATURAL GAS, which was briefly mentioned here two weeks ago when it hit a triple top at the 3.230 level, has catapulted to 4.400 ($100 per .01) due to expected increase in usage (air conditioners) this Summer coupled with stagnant supplies. There should be a number of similar plays over the next few months and we will do our best to spot them.
       Reports due to be released this week are as follows. Consumer Confidence (today) will fall slightly to 136.6 from 136.9 and Leading Indicators (WED) are slated to be UNCHANGED from +0.1% last time. New Home Sales (WED) and Construction Spending (THUR) are both WAY OFF(bearish lumber) and on FRIDAY the UNEMPLOYMENT rate and Non-Farm Payrolls will be the main focus. NFP up 44,000 and the UN rate at unchanged.
ON TO THE TRADES:

BRITISH POUND-hit contract lows (14670) last week and has "bounced" to the 15040 area this morning. Trend has been down for a while as the dollar has been strong and the British gov't had been against any rate increases. With only FOUR days left in the OPTION see a good counter-counter-trend (or TREND) trade. BUY the JUNE 149.00 PUT for 40 points ($250- $6.25 per point). Still like YEN PUTS this week also (JYEN at 9400--- 9250 PUTS at 18 points ($225).

SOY BEANS-have had a "tough" weekend as they will open 14-16 CENTS LOWER today.   Have warned EVERYBODY not to buy into the drought hype yet and those who listened are ready to "pick up the pieces" as the BULLS get Cleanedout today. CROP PRODUCTION report is not due until June 9th and outside of filling the "gap" today will still stay on the sidelines OPTIONWISE. My target is the eventual purchase of AUGUST options to take advantage of various mid-summer factors. Shorter term JULY options can be used for some speculation as they will be offered at "bargain Basement" prices on the opening (Look at the serial STRIKES 530 and 540 CALLS).

05/26/00

SPECIAL moment to those we HONOR on MEMORIAL DAY!!!

        Looked at first as if I had some heavy "ring rust" coating my analysis as the NASDAQ "jumped" up early in the morning-BUT we don't pay on "halftime" scores and by the time the days dust settled DOW was down 200 points, SILVER hit 492, and SUGAR exploded. Not TOO shabby for a first day back. Problem is today is Friday (light volume and bad day to buy options) and the start of a three day weekend so we will NOT have many recommendations. MOST MARKETS are CLOSING EARLY (Stock market is REGULAR HOURS).
           There are many new visitors so clients please excuse a quick commercial. I, Michel Saponara am a Commodities trader with International Futures in NYC. These E-letters allow me to communicate my views of 23 markets to both clients and subscribers. Are they Informative? Educational? Humorous? Most times. The BIG question is do they make $$$??? That is what you are here to see. I present 2-5 market trades a day as well as insight to upcoming reports and Fundamental and Technical analysis. Not all my trades become "activated" every day and since I trade accounts of ALL SIZES I indicate Sell option strategies for large clients, Daytrading for active traders and mostly Buying short-term options properly priced and timed before Key reports or during "cleanouts" or "retracements". The majority of these strategies involve RISK of $250 or LESS (plus commission).
         Futures (especially OPTIONS) are not as clear-cut as betting on football or horses, where all you need do is "pick the winner and place your wader". Although finding an entry point in a market and correctly identifying the direction it is headed are essential points in selecting a "winning trade" the "work" does not end there. Where, OH where, do I EXIT?? How much is enough Profit??  Should I get greedy??? These are questions I have encountered constantly during over a decade of trading and I have developed a solution.. By first buying "multiples" of an option I select, I open up a flexible exit strategy. I use a general rule of 3-5-8, which means if I have 3 options I seek 3 times my purchase price to exit the FIRST position (covering the "cost" of the initial trade) then 5x for the second and we can "get greedy" with the last one. Most of my trades are valued at under $250 so THIS works. Trying to get 5 times the premium price on an option that you paid $600 for is difficult and against most probabilities.
ON to the TRADES.
        JYEN-"spurted" up last week and has maintained 60% of this "minor" gain. BEARISH mode still intact and while I normally do not like to BUY options on a FRIDAY (time erosion 7 days till expiration and market is closed for two of those days) But while the U.S. is on holiday Monday the rest of the world is not. TRIPLE BOTTOM is looming big and a test of 9000 by next week (YEN at 9342) is not unfathomable BUY the 9150 PUTS for 16-18 points ($200-225) the expire next FRIDAY.

05/25/00    

      In our last episode Sally Stockmarket was tied to the railroad tracks as the train rumbled toward her and the dastardly villain laughed in the shadows. Would the Hero make it in time to save the fair maiden??? I did not think so and recommended PUTS. It is five days later and even though there was a "rally" yesterday I do not see much relief in sight. The catalyst for the Bull run of the 90's was the itroduction of "new cash" into the market each time it dipped. Well with the recent pounding that has taken place there seems to be less and less fresh money flowing in and each drop in the market takes more and more investors OUT each week. NASDAQ is up 35 today but a retest of the 3000 level seems likely by the weekend.
     THANK YOU VERY MUCH for the cards and letters of condolence that were sent. They were GREATLY appreciated.
On to the TRADES.
COCOA-has continued its upward quest toward 900 and though we have been constantly looking for areas to sell this overproduced commodity recently we have been Bullish and will remain so until 911 is reached in the JULY contract. OPTIONS expire on 6/2 and the 900 CALL for 10 points $100 is a low risk/high potential play (SHORTING the future down the road and locking in a profit is our target)

SUGAR-has moved HIGHER 9 out of the past TEN days and followers of the "GLASS" should have many JULY and OCTOBER calls that are already up 2 1/2 to 3 times what we suggested paying for them. MINOR pullback could occur after the 779 level is touched but continued higher prices are in the future. A PULLBACK to the 742 area is a signal to GET MORE CALLS.

SILVER-has slowly be approaching the $5.00 mark and with 492 as the bottom support level look for a FAST drop to 488 before buying longterm CALLS as an inflation hedge. Distant SEPTEMBER options would be the play when the crash occurs.

5/19

DUE TO THE
DEATH OF
PHILIP ANTHONY SAPONARA
(02/26/25-05/18/00)
Former President of the CCC (Clearing house
for the New York Cotton Exchange)
and MY FATHER
the will be no "oneglass viewpoint" for
the next few days.
My apologies to subscribers.
MICHEL P. SAPONARA
877-849-4685

05/18/00

        So went with the trend in the DOW(no more than 4 days in a row  up) and can see a continuation until the options expire tomorrow. Many analysts are stating that with lack of new reports or earnings figures that the market could stagnate until after the holiday's next week. GIVE ME A BREAK. If anything with small volumes the potential for fast trending markets increase, at least that is MY experience. "BIG AL" will have some "words for the world" today and coupled with a full moon tonight the 24 HOUR OPTION play in the DOW or S&P is still viable. On to the TRADES.

LIVE CATTLE- will have one more run at the contract highs (JUNE 70.87) before the Memorial day weekend is upon us. The LIVESTOCK slaughter report will be released after the close of the market on Friday (as well as Cold storage and Cattle on feed) and with the JUNE option not expiring until the 2nd BUY ONE 6900 CALL for 30 points and TWO 7000 CALLS for 12 each (total 54 points $216) not a BIG risk with a good return potential.

CRUDE OIL-dipped down to 2907 (we called 2904) and the june options expired. Overnight market activity has the OIL at 2956 (up 24) and the charts say HIGHER. Too much time premium in the JULY options but could take advantage of the options in UNLEADED GAS on a spread BUY the JUNE 100.00 CALL and SELL the 103.00 CALL for a debit (you PAY) of 80 points ($4.20 per point) with a potential profit of 220 points $920.

05/17/00  

      50 basis points rate increase, which was expected for a week, did materialize unfortunately is was accompanied by a cautionary skew toward future hikes (answer B) I can't help but picture "BIG AL" with a balance scale placing little weights on one side to even things out. What always happens (to ME) is the last piece is TOO MUCH and the scale tips the other way. Quick market QUESTION? When was the last time the DOW JONES CASH MARKET was UP FOUR DAYS in a row?? First week of JAN just before ALL TIME HIGHS. Guess you all know that two weeks later the market was 1000 points lower. Just some food for thought. don't forget that there are still THREE trading days left in the INDEX OPTIONS. I LIKE PUTS On to the TRADES.

CRUDE OIL-was a VERY SHORT term play for the"glass" yesterday since we had the 24 hour option (June expires today) and the market (on the heels of a slightly bearish API report) is at 2942 making our recommended 2950 PUT in-the-money To MAXIMIZE the moves (and eventual profit) the TRICK is to either SELL the option on the OPENING when panic could be abundant OR BUY THE FUTURE on a sizable dip depending on how many options you have open.(2904) LONG TERM this is a market that I would NOT WANT TO BE SHORT.

SUGAR-is rolling on the back of heavy predictions of Hurricanes this season as well as a possible slow down in South American exports. Can expect resistance at the 726 level (DAYTRADE SELL) and a possible re-test of the 687 area (DT BUY) use an 11 point stop at either price (1 point =$11.20) ANY drop in the market is a good time to pick up OCTOBER CALLS.

COTTON-had a tough day when a Clearing Member failed to maintain proper cash deposits with the Clearing House and the opening was delayed for over an hour. Still see both the "GAP" and Double Top being formed in this market before fundamentals take over an a big drop occurs. 62.05 BUY with a 61.40 stop and an exit target of 64.13. GO WITH IT.

05/16/00 

   The reading on the INFLATIONOMETER keeps swinging back and forth with each new release of data (CPI is another today). Industrial Output is up signaling a HOT
economy(Inflationary) but much of this growth is in production-enhancing goods (DIS in) Factor in rising gasoline prices and weakness in foreign trade and you end up with a formula only "BIG AL" Greenspan can calculate, which he has. His answer will be one of the following:
A) raise rates 1/4% with UPWARD BIAS
B) " ' 1/2% " " "
C) " " 1/2% no more increases
What is everyone expecting??? C is my answer and I am curious to know what you think. If you have a moment click REPLY with a letter in the subject. Thanks
P.S. While I am SHAMLESS I meant SHAMELESS!!!!
On to the TRADES.

DOW and S&P- MAY OPTIONS (long) are the play if you want to "get some action" the "safe" way before this afternoon's (2:15 edt) announcement. The EXPIRE in FOUR DAYS but are "inexpensive" enough to allow for some mild speculation. $250 could get you a PUT or CALL in the DOW about 200 points out-of-the-money which is just under the daily ranges this market has had in the past few weeks.

SOY BEANS-collapsed to FINALLY filled the GAP (539 1/4)we have been touting and
rebounded fairly well. JUNE options expire on Friday and for those who like to "BUY TIME" the best play is the AUGUST option since it does not expire until AFTER the big JULY contract goes through delivery. By the way I LIKE CALLS.

CRUDE OIL-breaks $30 again in the overnight. This could be a short term Double Top from Friday's high with a bias to the UP side. ONE DAY left in the JUNE options and an API (American Institute of Petroleum) report due tonight. Take a shot with the 2950 PUTS for $170 (17 points).

5/15/00

   The week, and meeting (the FED), that investors have been waiting for has arrived. Almost EVERYONE is calling for a 1/2 % (50 basis points) hike in rates and are already pointing toward the JUNE meeting as the FINAL hike. Has the market already absorbed the increase??? If you believe so then tomorrow at 2:00 (announcement usually comes at 2:15 est) BUY some CALLS in the MAY options in the DOW or S&P, since they EXPIRE on FRIDAY the premium should be reasonable. In addition to "BIG AL's" teaparty tomorrow we have additional economic news being released throughout the week. TODAY Industrial Production is slated to come in at +0.9% (0.3% last month) and Capacity Utilization at 81.9% verses 81.4%. Tuesday is the sister index to the PPI, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) which is supposed to be UNCHANGED.and Housing starts which have risen .05 mill. Finally on Thursday the Trade Deficit is due in at -29.0 BILL, a .2 bill drop.  On to the TRADES.

GRAINS-received the "news" that we expected and has had the drought fears temporarily
"dampened" The overnight markets are adding an additional 8 CENTS DROP in the SOY
BEANS on top of Friday's decline. The "gap" in the Beans is now closer and I will not be buying calls until this area has been filled (533 in JULY contract). We said to get PUTS last week and any SELLING today becomes "tricky" due to the large overnight range. A counter trend play would deal with the JUNE CALLS which expire on FRIDAY. "THEY" will be dumping the like a bad habit so "inexpensive" is the key word.

SILVER-has yet to do ANYTHING but with hints of inflation around (25% of small businesses reported price increases last month) BUYING CALLS after the $5.00 area has been breached may prove to be a very wise investment.

CRUDE OIL- hit $30.00 on Friday and has a "mere" two days left in the JUNE OPTION with a API report (supply) due Tues Night. Market is DOWN 44 cents overnight and a STRANGLE can be had for about $300. BUY the COMBO 3000 CALL and 2850 PUT for 31 points ($310) or "work" the individual strikes throughout the day. DIS

05/12/00

      Multiple reports due this day and since it is also a Friday there will be a limited number of trades. The key to deciphering the data released today (USDA CROP PRODUCTION and PPI) is not so much WHERE the numbers come in but WHAT was EXPECTED. For example the BEAN market has been driven up due to drought forecasts for the summer but today's farm statistics could reveal record plantings and an over abundance of Stocks which could trigger a BIG down day in the GRAINS. We shall see.
           WHY so many OPTIONS plays??? While DAYTRADING is fast (and FUN?) it requires more minute by minute attention and effort. POSITION trading can prove to be very lucrative but exposes one to radical overnight price moves and an "uncontrollable" risk factor. By sticking with LOW PRICED, HIGH VALUE (timed before reports/flat markets/low volatility) LONG OPTIONS not only can we set a specific game plan and alleviate unnecessary risk, but with an average account size (5-15K) we can be in 3-5 different markets simultaneously, investing as little as 10% per commodity. Steady profits can be achieved by merely hitting 1 of 3 plays and if you have a "hot week" (we get them sometimes)and cash in on all three that 30% risk could result in a DOUBLING of the account. Risk is based on the cost (premium paid) for the option plus commission and this is a speculative investment that should only be endeavored with proper risk capital. On to the trades.

COCOA-was given a not often seen Bullish recommendation earlier this week and with the British Pound showing some life today expect this trend to continue with the JULY contract testing the 872 (50 higher) level. At that point I turn BEARISH again.

PORK BELLIES- failed to hit my prediction of LIMIT UP yesterday, but not by much (up 228) and see a continuation resulting in an eventual retest of $1.00. Look for a corresponding rally in LIVE CATTLE as Memorial Day LOOMS. 71 JUNE CALLS 30 points ($120).

SILVER- is hard to gauge until the PPI is released (10 minutes) but I suspect a test of the 495 level in JULY. This will set up a BUYING opportunity that could spring to life after next week's FED meeting.

OPTIONS on the STOCK INDEX's EXPIRE in ONE WEEK. Look at the PUTS
today with an eye on CALLS just before the announcement next tuesday. Remember, the past few expirations have seen a lot of volatility and have resulted in several down days followed by two to three UPS. Historical trends do not imply futures results, but what else do we have to go on???

05/11/00

        FRACTALS, where Chaos meets Order, is one of the most useful charting weapons my arsenal. It is simple yet reveals pivotal points in any market. By understanding where the support/resistance levels are and at what area "most" of the stops rest is essential. Quickly it takes five periods before a fractal can be defined. To use an example look at the S&P chart at my site and notice the 1404.50 low a few days back. This point became a fractal when the two days before and after did not have a lower low. The NEXT fractal. which could then be classified as a "double-bottom") is at 1348. Will we see this price before "BIG AL" speaks next week? Probabilities are GOOD. On to the TRADES.

PORK BELLIES-are back to their old ways with more days in the past week being "limit" (300 points) moves than not. Back to back limit down was the result of a "Rumor" that McDonalds was canceling a large bacon order from Smithfield, the largest pork producer. Since this has been denied we may see a Limit UP move today. Since the calls are always expensive (102 CALL JULY is 100 points $400 and market is at 87.57) SELLING PUTS is the Traders selection. Suggest the 76.00 PUT for 150 points.

COTTON-was a "Quick Note" on Monday and those who picked it up are doing fine. CROP PRODUCTION report due tomorrow morning and could easily see the 65.00 cent area approached to form a double top. One thing to keep in mind as the "weather Hype" in agriculturals persists is that COTTON is one of the most resilient of all crops, Can't "burn it" can't "drown it". What's my point? PUTS maybe the sleeper trade for tomorrow. 58.00 PUTS JULY for 50 points ($250) are the play.

QUICK NOTES
CROP PRODUCTION REPORT will affect Beans, Corn, Wheat, OJ, Cotton with possible spill over to the Meats.
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX has impact on the precious Metals (look at long term SILVER) Both released FRIDAY.

05/10/00

       Just want to clear up a few facts about the Managed Program I described last week and the accounts I handle. Martin Maier is the CTA that operates Action Futures Trading, a S&P Credit Ratio System that has returned over 100% last year  with a minimum investment of $100,000 (exceptions can be made). While these past performances are not indicative of future results and any trading in the futures markets is risky, his system has shown that it can perform Profitably under various market conditions. I am a CTA (Commodities Trading Advisor) that at present has not launched a registered program but am in the process of raising equity to begin. These accounts will have a minimum of $10,000 to start and will trade EXCLUSIVELY LONG OPTIONS. I will not use a hypothetical track record only the same analysis that I delineate in My 'ONEGLASS VIEWPOINT" of which ALL the trade recommendations that I have made this year can be viewed at my WEB SITE under past trades. Hope either of these types of accounts (or BOTH) can fit into your future trading portfolio.
On to the TRADES.

S&P-showing more strength than the NASDAQ but is still weak. Overnight has the market down 4 points at 1415.80 with a low of 1412.70. After taking out a fractal at 1414.00 and creating a low of 1409.50 it seems like this index is headed straight for 1400 with a slight "bounce" at the 1404.50 level. SELL, on a daytrade, a pop" up to 1419.75 with a 1423.25 stop (risking 3 1/2 points in the MINI=$175). The OPTION for MAY expires a WEEK from FRIDAY and with the FED meeting next Tuesday it could be time to start looking "down the road".

JYEN-is enjoying a "rare" up day (68 points) and for DAYTRADING the YEN TREND IS YOUR FRIEND as often time if this currency starts in a strong direction in the A.M. it continues. BUY 9252 with a stop at 9241 (risk 11 points $137.50) SELLERS of OPTIONS (I know you're out there) should look at the CALLS near the close.

05/09/00

            The short term options, which is what I predominantly specialize in, are not the most popular type of trade because they are perceived as "Longshots". While, to a point, this is true one must evaluate the possibility of an predicted move. Take the CRUDE OIL play we recommended last week. Given over Two weeks in time value and several weekly API reports I suggested BUYING some relatively "CHEAP" CALLS. The Futures price was at approx $25.00 and I was getting 2600 to 2750 calls for $260-$110. Even my colleagues chuckled at the thought of crude moving $2.50 in that time. I pointed out that it would merely be a 10% move and that I only needed a $1.00 jump to exit with a small profit. Well as I write this morning the June Crude Oil is at $28.08 and there is STILL a week and a day (and TWO API reports) left. Those who followed the STO (Short Term Option) trading rules should still have 1/3 of their position remaining (for GREED) and now have the choice of trading a Future contract or going for a counter-counter trend trade (see below). Remember when risking a small denomination on the initial premium it only takes a few moves to realize 3-5 times return on your investment. Are YOU ready to try this type of trading???

CRUDE OIL-has touched the "OPEC BAND" upper level of $28.00 a barrel and while you would be hard pressed to find many bears this week (they were in abundance last Tuesday) NOW is the time to REVERSE and look for a significant drop in the next week. BUY JUNE 2650 PUTS for 13 points ($130) or for a little more cash the 2700 for $220. There is One week and One day remaining YET TWO API reports (one tonight and the other next week).

COCOA-should drop to NEW contract lows into the 750 area. I would look to catch a "cleanout" rebound at the 756 level (BUY) with a stop at 744 (risk $120) JULY CALLS could produce a winner as the top of the present channel is 838 800 calls for 17 is a fair price ($170)

QUICK NOTES
COTTON-Triple top near CALLS for JULY the BUY. CROP REPORT FRIDAY.
SILVER-still see drop below $5.00 (July @$5.09) 500 JUNE PUTS till Friday's PPI.
COPPER-sells off to 80 cents then re-runs to new highs June 80 puts 50 points ($125)

05/08/00

Not a lot of economic data scheduled to be released this a week ahead of the next FOMC
(Greenspan) meeting. Retail Sales (Thurs) are expected higher +0.4% compared with 0.2% last month and Initial Jobless claims targeted at 290,000 down from 303,000 last week. Friday the PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to be ANTI-Inflationary at -0.3% from 1.0% excluding food and energy this index is supposed to be UNCHANGED.
        Some headline news that may affect a few markets this week are the RUMOR that the ECB (European Central Bank) will intervene to help support the sagging Euro, and the New Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, is vowing to restore the countries economy.

       May have to consider going into the "Sports Touting" business as the record now stands at 3-0 on the heels of Fusaichi Pegasus' predicted ROMP in the Derby. On to the TRADES.

SUGAR-is still "Cheap" by historic standards and with the appointment of a new PM RUSSIA could find itself back in this market (which they are the largest world IMPORTER). Like the JULY 700 CALL for about 16 points ($11.20 per) or the EXPIRING (Friday) JUNE 650 put for 9 points coupled with a LONG JULY futures contract (we will use the option as a stop. Down the road trade is the 800 OCTOBER CALL for 15 points.

GRAINS-will offer a varied mixed bag this week given FLOODS in Missouri and drought conditions in the South. Overnight BEANS are down a few pennies and there is STILL a big "GAP" in the futures charts that MUST be filled before we go any higher. CROP PRODUCTION report is due on FRIDAY a week before the JUNE options expire and until a bottom is seen we will stay away from the CALLS till wed or thur.

05/05/00

        Finally Friday and that usually means a good time to exit positions and evaluate the upcoming week. It is also the day I try to give a few Trading Tips. In the SHORT TERM OPTION game there are three vital rules to always remember. !0 Get MULTIPLE positions-even if it is a 48 hour option (like the JYEN this week) BUY TWO. Exit at a good profit on one and "USE" the other verses a future contract. 2) Timing is everything-Just before KEY reports or when markets have "corrected" tend to produce most Quick moves. 3) Don't get TOO greedy-these "serial" and short term options do not have a big open interest and are constantly "thinning". Also it it highly recommended that you place your EXIT orders well in advance of the anticipated move. Remember ACT don't REACT!
      The Moon, Our planet EARTH, Mercury, Mars, Venus, Jupiter and Saturn ALL line up today. This bodes well for the Grain market and FUSAICHI PEGASUS who WILL WIN the Kentucky Derby and snap the streak of losing favorites since 1979. We are 2-0 this year (RAMS and SPARTANS). On to the TRADES.  SORRY ABOUT THE BAD PRICE IN THE BELLIES YESTERDAY COTTON-has been our "hot" market this week and a "pop-up" on the opening to the 5800 level. SELL 5795 with a stop at 5835 risking $200.

GOLD and SILVER-have a week remaining on the JUNE options and with the PPI report
(inflation indicator) due on the same day as expiration "both sides of the coin" can be taken by BUYING the GOLD 285 CALL for $150 and the SILVER STRANGLE (500 PUT and 525 CALL for $350 (7 cents).

05/04/00

Down day across the board as Stocks and a variety of Futures markets are giving back
huge chunks of last week's gains. Lowlights include Pork bellies Limit down (300 points) Coffee off 5 cents ($1800)and lets not forget a dip of 200 points in the DOW. "BIG AL" Greenspan will make a "small" speech today and most of the"street" are now anticipating a rate hike of 1/2 %. This has not been done since Feb 1995 which leads ME to believe that it will NOT be done this time but what I think (and a TOKEN) can get you on a N.Y. subway.
SPECIAL REQUEST: Due to changes in My servers my E-mail Address book is in a state of shambles. I ask that ALL clients, subscribers, and others CLICK REPLY and send me back your address so I can compile an up-to-date book. IF YOU DO NOT REPLY I may miss sending you the next installment. THANKS for your time.
ON TO THE TRADES
PORK BELLIES-as mentioned had a limit down day and FYI almost one out of every four times this market makes a LIMIT move in corrects itself with a limit move the next day so BUY july PB at 9520 with a stop at 9440. Bellies are $4.00 a point.

COFFEE-was up 5 cents last week and back down yesterday. JUNE options have one week and two days till expiration and today seems like a fine time to "take a shot" at an relatively inexpensive limited risk option play in a very volatile market. BUY the 105 JUNE CALL for .50 (187.50).

SOY BEANS-are off and running but have still left a rather large "GAP" from Monday. The "drought hype" is firmly entrenched but I do not see this market continuing its run without "taking care of business" and filling the void on my charts. No one seems to want the JUNE PUTS so that is my rec. BUY the 550 PUT for 4 cents ($200) which does not expire till the 19th.

05/03/00

Curve balls and off speed pitches were served up throughout the day and night in the
commodities game. Rumors of a big drop in Gasoline inventories prior to the release of the API report sent prices surging over 4 cents ($1680 in futures terms) only to have the data reveal a SURPLUS. Japan is in the midst of "Golden Week" (no markets for 5 days) and with the ECB (European Central Bank) refusing to intervene in the weakening Euro the Dollar has risen strongly again. Have to say that the "GLASS" nailed a fast ball from the COTTON market (check that trade rec)yesterday as well as "cashing in" the CRUDE CALLS we wrote about TWICE last week. Let's see what we can do today, so ON TO THE TRADES.

CURRENCIES-still are enticing since the chance for large movement with no trading in Tokyo and possible "surprise" moves by the Europeans. I think that spreading out some Calls in the JYEN and BPound can be profitable. The MAY (expires in THREE days)5700 BP CALL for 20 points ($125) and the JYEN 9300 CALLS for 16 points ($200).

SILVER-will eventually make another run to $5.50 but NOT until it drops ONE MORE TIME. The PPI is scheduled to be released a week from Friday (the same day as the OPTION (JUNE) expires) and the $5.00 put for 3 cents ($150) MAY FIND ITSELF IN-THE-MONEY by then.

QUICK NOTES
Reading through the past two weeks of "oneglass" you will find several markets with longer term strategies the I usually present. The CHARTS on MY WEB SITE have updated comments with the dates I wrote them to help you "weed through" the recommendations.
GOLD-moves little but potential to explode CALLS are INEXPENSIVE-get some.
NATURAL GAS-contract highs hit RETRACEMENT due SELL CALLS.
COTTON-did what we expected yesterday-time to REVERSE (GO SHORT)

05 02 00

A fair cross-section of the futures markets are indicating possible hints of Inflation which I am sure "Big Al" has noticed too! Next Fed meeting is two weeks away but after viewing 180 degree moves in Grains, Silver, and Crude coupled with the Dollar's strength it appears that a 1/4 % rate increase AND a bias toward another hike is imminent. Nothing more difficult then Guessing economic policy but the "writing is on the wall" and advantage of it we must take. On to the TRADES.

CURRENCIES-are approaching "that" time (options EXPIRE on Friday) and with several markets in down trend we will be looking at the CALLS. JYEN at 9260 right now makes the 9350 CALL (MAY) a BUY at 19 points ($237.50) CANADIAN DOLLAR 6800 CALLS for 10 points ($100) and the 157.00 BRITISH POUND CALL for 16 points ($100)

COTTON-for three of the last seven days has posted a 2 cents range ($1000) and oversupply is keeping this textile in bearish mode. Appears the right time to "nail" the short stops. Hardly ever like the "double play" in a volatile market such as this But......BUY JULY COTTON a 5695 stop 5640 (risk $275) and Exit REVERSE at 5885 with a BUY-Stop_reverse at 5915. GOT ALL THAT?
OPTION EXPIRATIONS
CURRENCIES,LIVE CATTLE and COCOA on FRIDAY

QUICK NOTES-
COCOA-may jump as high as 840(JULY) with strength in Pound SELL there.
SILVER-PPI due in 11 days ONE more drop below $5.00 due PUTS JUNE.
WHEAT-Nowhere nearly as strong as beans sell JULY at 269 3/4
Just to see if anybody reads this far-it is MY 41st Birthday today-reply dharry357@hotmail.com
THANKS.

05/01/00

        Start of a fresh new month but in NYC the police are all over the Wall Street area. Word has it that today May Day (a.k.a. Communist day) will feature some protests and rumored threats of anarchy proliferating into the heart of Capitalism. Glad to know the "Boys in Blue" will keep the American way rolling.  Decent week report wise starting off with the NAPM listing no change from last month (55.8) Tuesday the Leading indicators are due with a reduction of ..2% to +0.1% forecast and new Home Sales down 19,000 at 900,000. Factory Orders are expected to jump to +1.6% from last month's dismal -0.8%. Thursday features the Productivity (first quarter) at +3.0% which is down from 6.4% previously. Unemployment will be the big story on Friday targeted at 4.0% from 4.1% last month and finally the Consumer Credit off 2 Bill at $10.0 Billion. On to the TRADES.

SOY BEANS were very soft towards the end of the week as Fair weather and First Notice day were contributing factors. I was tempted to get my fill of JUNE CALLS near the close on Friday but do not like to lose the weekend time value on these short term instruments. ALAS, in this "game" timing IS everything and lo and behold even though the Wall Street Journal was touting LOWER PRICES (you all know how much I LOVE to fade the Journal) Beans (and the rest of the grain complex) WILL open sharply HIGHER. Can only say look for a QUICK daytrade on the Short side to take advantage of what may be a 7-9 cent GAP. JUNE 575 calls would have been a good BUY if they could be purchased for less than 3 cents (or try the 560 CALLS for 6 cents $300).

NASDAQ-took out a KEY fractal at 3785 (our BUY number last week) and "technically" could run all the way up to the 4300 level which would make life easier on "the Street". I do not say go "hog wild" and buy every tech insight but the chart says UP.

SUGAR- did not exactly "explode" but 27 points and 3 month highs are a good start. A little early to put much credence in the hurricane warnings (could be one of the worst seasons in a decade) yet we did tell you to start picking up 7.00 CALLS last week. Prices are still fair at 22 points and 11 for the 750 JULY. (sugar is $11.20 a point)