JUNE

06/29/00

       For various reasons delineated in last weeks Glass' the writing (selling) of options in advance of a seasonally slow period can be advantageously used this week. A number of expirations take place in 8 to 15 days that may "suffer" heavy time erosion and have their premiums shrink, thus making the trade profitable. This type of trading offers little to NO PROTECTION from overnight moves. Unlike when you BUY options (and you have the "right" to exercise them) as a seller you have SOLD the RIGHT and would be obligated to assume a position ( a losing one) in the futures market if the price traded through your strike. Still MANY believe that SELLING something "Worthless" (it is NOT IN THE MONEY) today is great and we will see what tomorrow brings. With that we will go on to the TRADES.  NOTE-there will be NO "ONEGLASS" on FRIDAY JUNE 30th, MONDAY JULY 3ird, and TUESDAY JULY 4th. ENJOY THE INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATION!!!
COFFEE-a semi depressed market that occasionally has a "Frost scare" in late July (Winter in the Southern Hemisphere) but is battling oversupply right now. Two Weeks and two days until the AUGUST OPTION (which trades off of the SEPT future price ) expires. With the Sept trading at 90.10 SELL the 100.00 CALL and the 85.00 PUT. Based on settlement prices the floor should fill a "combo" order at 2.00 ($750). Expect heavy resistance (1.00) and support (.85) at these strike levels.

CRUDE OIL-is another market that could stagnate over mixed news and thin holiday trading. In a market such as this one which exhibits daily ranges of over $700 ($10 per penny/point) "Legging in" is the best way to approach a SHORT STRANGLE. With the AUGUST future trading at approx 31.90 and OPTIONS expiring on the 17th look to SELL the 33.50 CALL for 54 ($540) and the 3050 PUT for the same 54 points. Net premium taken in would be $1080 and attempt to BUY each leg back at $150 sometime late next week. This type of trade generates a margin for a SINGLE contract ( can not move in both direction at the same time).

ORANGE JUICE-had it weather hype run-up and is ready to settle down until the next Cold Storage" report which coincidentally is released AFTER the AUGUST OPTION expires. Put premiums got "juiced" yesterday on the heels of a FOUR cent drop and calls still have a solid price. For this market (a relatively quiet one) we will suggest selling a STRADDLE (Same month Same strike). SELL the 8500 PUT and CALL for 400 to 450 points (100 points =$150)

06/28/00

        Everyone is entitled to a little Shameless Self Promotion and I am no exception.
Yesterday's DAYTRADE special touted three plays. In the MINI NASDAQ we
hit a 75 point winner (those who did a BIG one should send me some champagne)
and 30 points in the JYEN ($375 on the 9 point stop). In UNLEADED GAS I
expected a slight dip before a strong rally but got "nailed" when the market opened
down over 100 points and stop me out (NOTE the final settlement for this contract
was UP 1.27). CAN NOT win 'em all but as Meatloaf sings 'TWO out of THREE
ain't bad" and in COMMODITIES it is more than enough. I do primarily trade
OPTION accounts as that is best way to control the risk (only BUYING puts or
calls) but I do recommend to present and future clients that you allow me to handle
TWO accounts for YOU, one with OPTIONS ONLY and the second for
DAYTRADING. This is a form of diversification in itself and a very good way to
track returns. As long as you understand that the past recommendations (whether
winners or losers) are no definite indication of future performance I will be more than
happy to provide you with the necessary information to get started in the
FUTURES WORLD of ONEGLASS. 'NUFF SAID
On to the TRADES
SWISS FRANC-had a FIVE day decline (before our FED meeting) and a
sharp UP day which is reminiscent of last's months pattern, which resulted in a run
UP of over 300 points. HISTORY (not indicative of future results {see above})and other
factors point toward an instant replay. Swiss has weaken in the overnight market
bringing it to 6133 MY BUY ENTRY POINT with a tight stop at 6121 (risk $150
plus "slippage" and commission) with an exit point at the "gap" of 6168.

WHEAT-formed strong mid-term double bottom 2 weeks ago and has retraced
the proper amount to launch a drive to $3.00 per bushel (or double top at 2.93).
Would like to GO LONG at 284, which would be a weekly double-bottom,
and use a tight STOP REVERSE at 281 1/2 in the SEPT contract. KEEP losses
SMALL and the winners will take care of themselves. OPTIONWISE I like the
AUGUST 290 CALL for about 5 cents ($250).
I mentioned last week about the opportunity to SELL options and take advantage of
Time value erosion due to the holiday week. A "NIGHTGLASS" will go out this
afternoon highlighting some markets to use this strategy.

06/27/00
With the FED meeting today (and barring "leakage" the rate announcement
tomorrow) interest sensitive markets will be thin and tight and since the upcoming
weekend will be "short (Friday and Monday) and long at the same time it appears to
be a fine time for DAYTRADING. This is the process of entering and exiting a
particular market by the close and paying or receiving the profit that day. Most
times you should focus on markets that have "gapped" (traded much higher or lower
than the previous days settlement price) in the hopes of having them retrace back to
the original starting point. Also keep in mind your RISK/REWARD ratio (TOO
many traders risk $500 to make $200) and try to keep it at a 1 to 3 or 1 to 4. Final
note NEVER start a daytrade (place your entry price) without having a STOP order
ready to be entered and placed. "Mental stops" (Let's BUY and WATCH it) usually
result in one losing more than originally planned.
ON TO THE TRADES.
JYEN-dipped to 9584 in the overnight where it is now at 9621 (up 16). Since it
touched the bottom of the short term channel on a DAYTRADE BUY SEPT
JYEN at 9611 with a 9602 stop risking $112.50 per trade.

UNLEADED GAS-has broken a dollar a gallon and then some (high 1.0960 in
JULY) and has an expiring option today. With an API report (American Institute of
Petroleum) due tonight you may see some "leakage" by noon. Using the AUG
contract for trading (higher open interest) which settled at 1.0023 look to BUY a
slight dip below $1.00 using a stop at 99.35 (one point equals $4.20) and place
the exit SELL order at 1.0190 looking to take an $840 profit on a $168 risk.

NASDAQ-has a 3844.50 high in the overnight and is off 7 points SELL
3852.00 (in the MINI which is $20 per 1.00) with a stop at 3871 risking $380 and
expect to see this market in the mid 3770's as an exit point. If successful the profit
reaped would be in excess of $1500.

06/26/00

           As we begin the last week of the first half of this year all eyes (and ears) are pointed
towards tomorrow's FED meeting where the future of U.S. interest rates will be decided. If you listen to the "experts" there will be NO RATE INCREASE and expectations that additional hikes will not be forth coming. I rarely side with this group for after all I am a countertrend trader and the way the Bond market reacted last week (DOWN BIG) is seems to me that at least a bias toward a further increase will be the result at 2:15 tomorrow. As for the rest of the Economic data for this week Today Existing Homes Sales will show weakness from last months 4.88 mill to 4.77 mill. Tuesday will also highlight the Consumer Confidence Report which may show a lack of confidence by consumers when it comes in at a weak 140.0 from 144.4 in May. Durable Goods orders (WED) will post a strong increase over the previous numbers (-6.4%) and be a positive 3.0 % . Thurs is the GDP for the First quarter which will remain unchanged at 5.4% and Friday will feature the Personal Income numbers (+0.7% old +0.3% new) and Personal Consumption (+0.4%----+0.2%) . GRAIN stocks and Acreage report for grains will also come on Friday. On to the TRADES.

NATURAL GAS-has been one of the MOST active of all futures markets will daily ranges
between $1000 and $4000. Options expire on TUESDAY (tomorrow) and given the short term "heat relief" that the west and midwest are expecting PUTS for 24 hours seem like a fine speculation. Future settled at 4.448 and the 4.250 strike (JULY) for $250 (.250 points) is the PLAY.

GRAINS-are mixed as the Beans and corn drop the Wheat rises due to the different harvesting and growth periods. July options expired on Friday and while I am a big proponent of AUG BEAN CALLS to take advantage of what may still be a drought situation as the "Bean PODS" I see LONG WHEAT and SHORT BEANS (SEPTEMBER CONTRACT) as being a profitable spread for the next 10 days. Enter with a $1.93 differential.

COCOA-dropped like a rock the day after we recommended going short. What's next?? A rally back to the 872 level (sept) where we will sell again. Daytraders can BUY on the opening at 846 with a 838 stop risking all of $80.

06/23/00

      Let me be honest with you. Fridays in the summer time tend to be virtually "dead" after the openings. The is action as far as overnight news and various reports, but the fact that most options expire on Fridays make for smaller than normal trading ranges which in turn makes it tougher to "squeak out a profit". It is not that I am lazy as the weekend approaches and thus only give out one or two trades in the "GLASS" but most of my concentration is in EXITING some of my previous option positions often seeking to "lock in" a profit on the last day by trading the futures,  Hopefully such will be the case in the US BONDS today as I own the 9700 calls (Wed rec) and need a spurt in the market where I will then go SHORT a futures contract. SO when are you going to OPEN an ACCOUNT with ME???

On to the TRADES.
BRITISH POUND-has been in an up and down cycle with over 100 point ($625) ranges.
After a strong day on Thursday it is down 90 in the overnight (15076) On a DAYTRADE SELL SEPT BP at 15098 with a stop at 15122 risking $137.50. Market will get thin after 12:00 so look for 50 points and GET OUT!

I"M BULLISH
SOY BEANS-OJ--SILVER--COFFEE--WHEAT-NATURAL GAS
I am BEARISH
LIVE CATTLE--PORKBELLIES--NASDAQ--SUGAR--COTTON

06/22/00      

A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY is upcoming for WRITERS of OPTIONS (those who
SELL puts or calls in the expectation that it will expire worthless). The two main components of an out-of-the money option are VOLATILITY and TIME . To be SELLING calls when the market is racing up takes advantage the first element usually resulting in a "juicy" premium for taking are rather large risk. The second seems basic enough-TIME-a luxury to the BUYERS that is expensive. So where is this GREAT PLAY??? With the Forth of July falling on a Tuesday markets will be SHORT on Friday the 30th of june CLOSED Saturday and Sunday and will be SHORT and THIN (fer sure) on Monday the 3rd. That means for almost six days there will NOT be a FULL trading day in many Commodities. This is not to say that OCCURRENCES can not take place to affect prices but TIME is CHEAPENED thus selling IT (time) can result in some FAST price erosion and profits. Keep in mind this form of trading is VERY RISKY just in case you did not KNOW! On to the TRADES

JYEN- may fit perfectly as the first market to speculate in using the trading format (writing option) as described above. JULY option expires in 15 days of which 8 are either closed markets, shortened hours or just thin (most fridays in currencies) Add to that mix that Japan may raise YEN rates (bullish) and WE ($$$) may not and you have the play. With the SEPT YEN at 9626 the 9550 PUT for JULY may be SOLD for 60 points ($750) and held till it expires worthless. Keep in mind that when SELLING options you will have to "put up margin" to hold the position. DAYTRADE will be to BUY the SEPT YEN at 9611 with a 9597 stop risking 14 points ($175) with an exit target of 9649.

COCOA-surged yesterday near the $900 per metric ton level (high 884) and with some strength in the overnight British Pound expect to see 905 trade in the SEPT contract. This area will be a GOOD SHORT or SELL for a DAYTRADE. Using a STOP at 913 should yield a profit by the close.

06/21/00

My technique for trading short term options, while being simple in its concept, requires the
trader to closely monitor a number of factors which include Open Interest, (number of outstanding contracts) spread between BID/OFFER ,(for lightly traded strikes it can be very wide) and VOLATILITY for the underlying futures contract. And this is just to ENTER the trade. I often mention that "getting into a position" is barely half the battle as exit strategies and prices must be planned out in advance, along with back-up just in case we were not 100% right in our initial prognostication. Sometimes, as with the COPPER options yesterday, no matter what action was followed even with the futures dropping like a rock the floor traders would not budge as far as the JULY 8200 calls were concerned. Not to fret because in the Futures World there is ALWAYS another trade around the corner. This is just another reason why you should "stick to your guns" and do not go "chasing " after trades, let THEM come to YOU. On to the TRADES.

US T-BONDS-are NOT expected to move TOO MUCH because the FED meeting on rates isn't until next Tuesday but with JULY OPTIONS expiring on Friday I see potential in an expensive market that I often avoid (multiple reasons). Sept Bonds are at 9705 and the 9700 calls which settled at 33 points ($15.625 per point) may be had for as little as 14 points near today's close IF 9627 trades. BUY TWO and, down the road, look to SELL one SEPT contract verses the call (covered future) at 9715 to "lock in" a worst case scenario of "breakeven".

SILVER-has stagnated for weeks but I still see the hints of inflation throughout the economic data and feel that the probability of seeing silver run back to 1999 highs ($5.80 per OZ) is not outlandish. I like the 550 SEPT calls (yeah I know SEPT options go for SIX more weeks) for 4 cents apiece ($200). Rate increase and PPI numbers may help jump start this metal next week.

QUICK NOTES
SUGAR-lack of Russian participation (tariff) will soften this market back to 777.
COCOA-tends to "run up" during delivery period buy Sept at 856 sell at 889
BEANS-should be BOUGHT and HELD AUGGIE OPTIONS the call.
NASDAQ-down 50 points already. I see a BIG SELLOFF today.

06/20/00

     Missed everybody for a few days, did YOU miss ME?? No sense in just filling space this morning so let me get to this week's report rundown (which NORMALLY comes on Monday). Most eyes are focused on NEXT TUESDAY's FOMC meeting where "BIG AL" will probably raise rates again, this time 1/4%. Today the International Trade figures will show a slight decrease in the deficit from -30.2 Bill to -29.3 and the first quarter Account Deficit will rise to -106.7 Bill from a previous -99.8. COLD STORAGE report (which affects BELLIES and OJ) is issued TODAY after the markets close. THURSDAY Initial Jobless claims for 6/17 come out and are expected to be at 293,000 down 3,000 from last week. FRIDAY features LIVESTOCK slaughter and the expiration of JULY US BOND as well as JULY GRAIN options.

On To The Trades
COPPER-Filled the three week "gap" after posting six UP days. Long term trend line also hit which points towards a few days of retracement. On a DAYTRADE SELL JULY at 8320 with a TIGHT stop at 8365 which would entail a risk of under $125. The target exit point is 81.55 and at that point I would look to BUY the JULY 8400 CALLS (one week to go) for 50 points each ($125)

SOY BEANS-ARE YOU READY TO BUY??? I am almost there. As I have mentioned since the beginning of MAY the summer rally in the Beans (if there is to be one) would not come until the JULY options EXPIRED. Well with Friday as expiration day the beans have dropped almost 70 cents ($3500) and the AUGUST options are almost "ripe for pickin'". I want August 550 calls for 5 cents and 575's for 3 cents. A combo of these two strike should give us plenty of room to play with if the "drought looms BIG". 495 should be tested today in the AUGUST contract. GOOD DAYTRADE BUY.

NATURAL GAS-"burnt down the house" yesterday with a record drop of over 40 points
($4000!!!). This is one of the most DANGEROUS markets in the world so "FARE THEE
WARNED BE THEE SAY I" if following my strategies here. I am looking for another 13-17 point "dip" to form an upside down Head and Shoulders at approx. 3.830 in the JULY contract. At this point a BOLD move is to SELL the 3.70 PUTS for about $1200 or BUY the futures with a 4 point ($400) stop. "ONEGLASS" followers will BUY CALLS for the JULY strike 400 for about the same price. Expiration is next TUESDAY.

06/14/00

    Multiple problems still exist in my E-World that won't be resolved until the weekend.  WEB SITE IS ALSO DOWN. Again please excuse the brevity and design of these "GLASSES" as my "cup is full".

SOY BEANS-are inching closer to the key $5.00 level and I am sure that stop abound below this area. though 4.97 is over 10 cents away I do expect to be picking up AUGUST CALLS when this price is touched. For a DAYTRADE SELL at 509 3/4 with a 512 3/4 stop (risk $150) look to exit at 500 1/4.

JYEN-took out highs and now seems "ready to rumble" as it is up 45 in the overnight. Stick with UP trend for DAYTRADE. BUY slight pull back to 9551 with a 9542 stop risking $112.50.

06/13/00

Having server problems today so JUSt QUICK NOTES. Hopefully the WEB SITE will have everything posted. Things happen.

S&P-options with three whole trading days left still a good play as with Friday's ONE trade recomendation (BUY the 1440 PUT) still like the DOWN side till NEW news comes out.

SUGAR-stick with SHORT POSITION.

SOY BEANS did have a "bounce" but may still test below the $5.00 level. No more CALLS till next week. If you own the 520 JULY CALLS touted yesterday look to SELL a contract covered verse that call at the strike price (519 1/2-521 3/4)

CRUDE OIL-options have 48 hours left and the IS an API report tonight. NOBODY wants PUTS so that is the PLAY. BUY the JULY 3050 PUT for 21 ($210) points.

06/12/00

        Should be a week full surprises as the quarterly TRIPLE WITCHING day approaches. Economic data on Friday (specifically the PPI report) was greeted with mixed response so the Market will target to other event early in the week to decide direction. On Tuesday Mr Alan Greenspan ("BIG AL") will speak to the NY Assoc. for Bus Economics and traders will carefully listen for hints of rate direction at the June 27th FOMC meeting. Retail Sales will also be given tomorrow and are expected to rise 0.3% from the -0.2% rep[orted last month. On Wed "BIG AL" will keep his eye on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) which was unchanged last time and is predicted to come in at +0.2% which is not overly inflationary. Business Inventories may be up 0.1%. Thursday Industrial Production is expected to show a LARGE Decrease from 0.9% to -0.3% and Capacity Utilization also down 0.4%. Friday (besides TW day) will feature Housing starts and Building Permits Both slated to be down again.
ON TO THE TRADES.

SUGAR-has been touted here as a great BULLISH market since Mid-April and has not let our fans down. Now, with July options having expired on Friday(and MANY calls converted to long contracts), the market hitting two years highs, and the WSJ and floor traders calling for 10 cents sugar I will become a short term BEAR. BUY the AUGUST 800 PUTS for 17 points ($200 each) or on a DAYTRADE SELL JULY at 851 with a target at or below 817 and a stop at
863..

BEANS-have got nothing but bad news (for BULLS) in Friday's Crop Production report and the 10 day weather forecast. Expect to see JULY contract breaking recent lows down to the $5.00 area. Still waiting on the side lines before we "pull the trigger" on the AUGUST CALLS. Two weeks left in the JULY OPTIONS and if the drop today is VIOLENT (more than 15 cents) look at the 520 CALLS at 4 1/2 cents for a "BOUNCE".
EXPIRING OPTIONS THIS WEEK
JUNE LEAN HOG---TUES
JULY CRUDE OIL---WED
JUNE S&P and DOW----THURS
JULY OJ ---------------FRIDAY
JULY COTTON--------FRIDAY

06/09/00

       As you know, 2 KEY reports will be released at 8:30 est the PPI and the USDA Crop Production. Our positions were established yesterday in various markets that will be affected(COTTON,OJ,BEANS, SILVER and GOLD). The trick about some of these reports is not only what they "SAY" but what was "EXPECTED" by the industry and speculators. It is the resulting position shifting that often makes for wild moves on the openings. What does one do in these situations??? As usual,having a specific PLAN of profit taking or loss protection is integral. Place optimistic limit orders in the options markets to capitalize on panic and take some quick profits before the overreaction subsides. In the case of SHORT-TERM options (like the cotton or gold) that have little "time value" entering the futures market to lock in a profit also adds to the flexibility of a "FREE"contract in case the market retraces back below your strike price.


ON TO THE TRADES.

S&P-is the one "play for the day"(actully four days) as next week is TRIPLE WITCHING ( stock options and futures expire) market has dropped down for three days then rallied for two in three of the last four expiration. I see a pattern. Pending the morning reports the S&P will be around 1476. BUY the JUNE 1440 PUTS for for 8 points (in the mini contract that is $450 for the "HIGHROLLERS" a big S&P is $2250) This is a little more risk than you are accustomed to receiving from me but TAKE A SHOT.

06/08/00

         ECB (European Central Bank) did raise their rates this morning (as stated on Tuesday) only instead of .25% they went up .50%. Dollar, at this moment, is getting hammered. Still a play in the expiring currency options (30 hours to go) as trend that form till 9:00 am. should follow through. Jobless claims will be released at 8:30 and tomorrow the PPI (Producer Price Index) will be issued and should impact several markets.
ON TO THE TRADES
COTTON-still has a shot to fill "gap" above 60.00 (60.25) before the CROP PRODUCTION report is released Friday morning. Settlement price for JULY was 58.25 and a BUY at this price with a stop at 57.65 (risk $300) could produce a big winner. If 60.25 is achieved I recommend BUYING PUTS (JULY 5800 at 78 points could be had for 40 {$200).

QUICK NOTES
GRAINS-down with heavy rain in 7 day forecast. 511 BEAN SUPPORT.
CRUDE-rebounded from 70 points down may test 31.50 by friday.
COPPER-set to rally 80 and 82 CALLS good combo trade.
GOLD-pivotal report tomorrow as well as option expiration $300 per OZ???

EXPIRING OPTIONS for FRIDAY 6/9
(all JULY) GOLD,SILVER,SUGAR,COFFEE
JUNE CURRENCIES

06/07/00

            Until you have tried something it seems unfounded to believe it CAN'T WORK! My SHORT-TERM, LONG (meaning we only BUY) OPTIONS strategies are often treated in this manner. With statement like "How can gold possibly move $20 in a week, it's DEAD" or "Crude can't go from $25 a barrel to $30 and back to $25 in a month, OPEC won't allow it" it is amazing I continue in this business. Truth is though (on every given Sunday in the NFL...) ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, and by timing your investment plays properly and keeping your LOSSES SMALL, you will find yourself "catching some Big Ones" each month. It is , of course, easier to hire an individual like myself to execute these strategies and there is RISK wherever there is REWARD and no matter how great any of my past recommendations have been this does not imply that I will ever have another winning trade. MY System, and COMMODITIES for thatmatter are defiantly NOT FOR EVERYBODY! Are they for YOU??? Contact us and see.
msap@intlfutures.com
877-849-4685 ext 211

ON to the TRADES:
GOLD-and its huge chart breakout has chatter of $300 per oz. just around the corner, as is the PPI (Producer Price Index) report (FRIDAY) and JULY OPTION EXPIRATION. Will
VOLATILITY continue for 72 hours more? If you feel YES is the answer then join me in
BUYING a STRANGLE. JULY 295 CALL and a 290 PUT with the settlement of 291.00 could be had for $310 to $340 (for both).

SILVER-head and shoulders pattern seems neutral but since this market has been "rangy" and we have gold cover to the upside my preference in this metal is PUTS. JULY $5.00 are going for less than 2 cents $100. A few of these in combination with the above play make for a solid strategy.

COCOA-GAP needs to be filled at 797 before any foreseeable bounce, although strength in the British Pound may spill over. Momentum generated as gap is filled and stops are hit may also trigger program selling. I see contract lows until early JULY delivery pressure rolls in. BUY the AUGUST 800 PUTS for $140. Don't forget multiples of 3.

LIVE CATTLE-has forced me to "give up the ranch" since the heavy summer demand never materialized to take out contract highs last month. 5 consecutive UP days have proceeded Two Weeks of DOWN but the LOWS formed at the recent Double Bottom is BEARISH. Yesterday's "spike" hit previous support level and several trendlines. PUTS are INEXPENSIVE so stash some for the Fall. BUY AUGUST and OCTOBER 6700 PUTS (TWO of EACH) for 40-60 points ($160-$200) each.

06/06/00

              On the anniversary of the D-DAY invasion to ALL those involved, of which MY
late father was one, THANK YOU!
               News of the day was that the stock market held its ground after last week's record performance. 4000 in the NASDAQ seems to be the target area for the short term. Lack of economic data for thenext few days could see a continued sideways movement as the TRIPLE WITCHING is just around the corner (TWO WEEKS AND FOUR DAYS) On to the TRADES.

ORANGE JUICE-chart looks like a cardiograph as fundamentals keep this market near its contract lows (81.90 sett 79.00 CTL) WHAT can occur to brake this pattern on way or another??? WILD FIRES! The OJ market soared 30 cents two years ago when hot dry weather started to result in fires on the West Coast and in Florida. Major damage may not occur but the "hype" that this type of situation can create is more than enough reason to take a chance in a normally quiet market. JULY options expire in TWO weeks and with a crop production report due on Friday there is plenty of time. BUY 3 (three) JULY 85.00 CALLs for 50 points ($75) and one SEPT 90.00 for 130.

CURRENCIES-have quite a number of events this week as the ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to RAISE RATES .25% at their Thursday meeting. The British Gov't said it WON'T change theirs at tomorrow's get-together and the release of Japanese economic data yesterday (weak) could further add to the muddle. With OPTIONS EXPIRING FRIDAY there are multiple plays. BRITISH POUND 150.00 PUTS for 25 points (($156.25) JYEN 9300 PUTS for 16 points ($200) and SWISS FRANC CALLS 6100 strike for 16 points also. If doing all THREE one of each should be sufficient for a 5-10K account.

GRAINS-in a downward channel as the rain continues to fall in the midwest. Rallies seem to die quickly as the CROP PRODUCTION report looms on FRIDAY. The short term plays are to the downside as few new bullish developments are on the horizon. PUTS are the call. 520 for JULY BEANS could be had for 6 cents ($300) but for those who like to be daring and SELL OPTIONs since there are two weeks and three days left in the JULY the 525 STRADDLE (same strike price) is tempting. With the market at 5.29 the SELL will net you 28 cents ($1400) and the bet is that the settlement price on the 23ird of JUNE will be very close to 525. GOOD LUCK!

CRUDE OIL-has eight days left in the JULY OPTION and with two API (American
Petroleum Institute) reports due in that time frame (one tonight) we may see an increase in production as per the OPEC BAND committee (NOT a musical group). With the JULY contract at 29.70 BUY one 2850 PUT for 35 ($350) and TWO 2800 PUTS for 19 points. Remember a $3 move in crude ($3000 per contract) is ONLY 10% of this markets price. NOT ALOT!

QUICK NOTES
COTTON-will fill GAP at 60.25 before descending AGAIN. 58 PUTS for 50 points.
SUGAR-not done yet BUY pull back to 7.88 7.79 stop
COCOA-should touch 800 and then bounce back to 855.

06/05/00

         Due to my involvement in the Stock Index's many of my friends and clients ask my opinion about their portfolios. The consensus among them a few weeks ago was that if they could just get back "some" of their losses the would liquidate. Well those same people, after last week's record climb , are now saying that things look GREAT and they should be "back in the black" any time now. This is the standard thought pattern that most investors go through and in this case I think a lot of caution should be exercised considering that the Double Bottom that the NASDAQ formed was a BEARISH one. Is A TRIPLE BOTTOM in the near future?? That is MY opinion. 

       Not a great deal of economic data due this week. Tomorrow Productivity for the 1st Q are due to be unchanged at 2.4% and Wholesale Trade down from 1.0% to 0.6%. Consumer Credit is down a scant 1.1 billion according to estimates for Wed. Thursday will feature Initial Jobless Claims (285,000 verses 286,000 last month) and on Friday is the Producer Price Index expected to be UP .3% compared with DOWN .3% in MAY. On to the TRADES.

PORK BELLIES-have faded from the mid-May highs near a dollar and settled at 87.85 Friday. BEARISHNESS is the tone but the charts indicate a retest of the 90.00 cent level before a further decent occurs. Multiple trade would be to GO LONG at 87.55 with a stop at 86.85 ($4 per point) and EXIT REVERSE at the 90.45 area. If this rally occurs look at the LEAN HOG PUTS (much less expensive)strike price 69.00 for 50 points.

SOY BEANS-won't pick a definite direction but certainly has had some good daytrading ranges. With the drought hype coming and going with each drop of rain yet the possibility of big moves on the horizon a fine seasonal play is the SPREAD BUY JULY/SELL AUGUST for a 2 cent difference. If the "crop scare" materializes then you will see the front contract race past the back one. In the case of this spread we are using two "old crop" months (NEW crop starts with September and refers to the beans in the ground.

06/02/00

       ANTICIPATION-the cornerstone of all analytical work. Spotting a Bearish Double Top (there are bullish and neutral ones) is good but FORESEEING (and trading) this scenario on the charts a week before it occurs tends to profit one's account better. For a great example go to a COTTON chart (there is one at my website (www.intlfutures.com/oneglass )  and look at it for a moment. The recent top was formed while filling a long term "gap" triggering sell programs and creating the bearish (lower high) top. Many stories like this unfold each week on the daily charts and it is MY JOB to spot them. Does YOUR BROKER work as hard for you???
          As Friday's go this is a BIG one as not only has the stock market come to life (NASDAQ up 11.77% in three days) but unemployment numbers and payrolls combined with the prevailing attitude that "the bottom is in and the slump over" should give us a lot of action. Other commodities continue to have huge ranges also as just yesterday I mentioned about the run NATURAL GAS has had in MAY and it dropped at one point over 40 points ($4,000). The next month should hold many similar plays. On to the TRADES.

SILVER-is making us wait a LONG time before it "cracks". Big divergence in the OPEN
INTEREST as JULY has 60,000 and Sept and Dec with less than 9,000 each. This is NOT THE NORM and I feel it is a sign that when a drop does occur it will be almost 20 cents ($1000 per contract) Next Friday is the PPI (Producer Price Index) and if hints that it is non-inflationary leak out 475 may trade by then. What's the play?? BUY the 500 CALL (yes CALL) for 3 cents ($150) today and place a GTC (Good Till Canceled) SELL FUTURES order in for 502.5. This will provide a protected short futures position with a Maximum loss of 1/2 cent $25. (bought call for 3 cents locked in 2.5 cents with the futures.) if the market collapses next week the future contract should be bought back at 476.

06/01/00 

   ARE COMMODITIES RISKY??? Anything that involves investing has a certain element of risk attached and the FUTURES markets are no exception but with proper money management and limiting the speculation vehicles to LONG OPTIONS one can take big advantage of the cyclical moves in a variety of products. Just this past month CRUDE OIL moved $5 a barrel ($5,000 per contract) SOY BEANS 60 cents ($3000) and NATURAL GAS 1.200 ($12,000). In each of these markets and option expenditure of $200 could have reaped a 10 fold benefit. There, of course, is the risk of losing the entire premium price and those tricky past performances, no matter how spectacular, are not indicative of futures results. One should ONLY speculate with adequate RISK CAPITAL.

NEW PASSWORD with be mailed later TODAY
On to the TRADES.
COFFEE-experianced (to quote the Wall Street Journal) "skepticism and confusion" amidst the drop of the JULY contract by over 7 cents ($375 per cent). Options expire in eight days and the purchase of a 105 JULY CALL for 50 points $175 is a good play. I like the AUGUST option since it does not expire until some delivery pressure comes in on the JULY contract and the "chance for frost" increases. Problem is the COST. VERY EXPENSIVE. A 120 CALL (almost 25 cents out-of-the-money) goes for a $1000. Spreads will be the way to go as the JULY option expires.

JYEN-has dropped below the 9250 level (our recommended strike price for PUTS on
TUESDAY) and most factors point toward an attempt to hit the 9000 level. Look for a late day bounce and take a chance on a 24 hour option for $150-200. Most probably the 9200 put.