JULY

JULY

07/31/00

With a massive down week in the Stock Market capped by an ugly Friday
close it is amazing how many "GURU's" are touting "Cheap" stocks for the buying.
Cheap is a relative term and while the likes of Quallcomm down 68% from its
high seems inexpensive the "yardstick" that everyone is measuring these stocks
against is no longer 36 inches. Reports that could affect your daily trading to be
released are as follows. Tues Personal Income unchanged at 0.4%, Personal
consumption doubled from 0.2% up to an estimated 0.4%. and the ever watched
Purchasing Managers Index should rise to 52.4 from 51.8. New Home sales on
Wed will up tick 3.000 to 878,000 and Leasding Indicators up 0.1% last month
will be UNCHANGED. Friday's unemployment figures will be stable at 4.0% and
Non Farm payrolls.(for which I need to recheck my data sorces on). On to the
trades.

MINI S&P-for A DAYTRADE could see the 1439.75 spot for a SELL with a
stop at 1442.25. Make it a TWO lot stop and SELL a second one at 1440.75.
Exit one at 1430.50.

ORANGE JUICE-has hit some might low lows but with a solid Double Bottom
in at 76.80 a buy near the settlement (77.35) with a stop reverse at the contract
lows should yield a potential 4 cent winner (each cent is read 100 or 100 points each
point is worth $1.50) Look to exit at resistance level of 80.00 to 80.50

COCOA-does not appear willing to descend to it contract lows despite a glut of
raw material. OPTIONS for SEPT expire on Friday and though lack of movement
points towards a trading range around the 850 strike price. The 900 calls and the
800 puts are selling for about $100 for both but the better play is the at the money
strike. I like the 850 PUTS for $110.

LEAN HOG-would be a GREAT SELL at 69.75 for the AUG contract.
Problem is they are trading at 67.85 or a LIMIT UP move (200 points) away. So
what am I really saying. Ride up a gap filling, report hyped, monday morning PIG
RALLY. If the market moves accordingly and you can pull 150 points out of a
LONG position, REVERSE at the 69.75 level with a 70.57 STOP.

07/28/00
SUGAR-will approach 11.00 and be met with heavy profit taking. I would not be
surprised to see 1096 trade and then on Monday see a 40 point "gap" open to
"cleanout" the overabundance of long positions. SELL 1094 with a tight tight stop
at 11.02.

S&P-was nailed this week by the "glass" and see no reason to stray from the short
side until at least 1447.50 trades today. Seems like a long way off but SELL at
1469.75 with a 1473.25 stop. Watch out for "unexpected data" in this mornings
report.

JYEN-is near collapse (according to my charts) and with a week to go in the
AUGUST option the 9100 PUT for 15 points stands a good chance of being in the
money by early next week. 15 points is $187.50 TAKE A CHANCE!

07/27/00

Weakness continues to proliferate the Stock market as a differential between
the three major Indexes appeared. DOW (the weakest) dropped 132 (futures) S&P
15.50 points and finally the NASDAQ off only 23. While I expect the slide to
continue (Monday we touted the S&P down to 1458.50) I feel that the strongest
(nasdaq) will become the weakest today. On to the TRADES.

NASDAQ-Dropped a quick 110 points on the opening and rallied back to the high
3800's. A SELL on a STOP at 3838.00 should see a test of yesterdays lows at
3772 a BOUNCE back to 3800 and then LOWER LOW"S. When
DAYTRADING this market (do the E-mini's , much more liquidity and it moves fast
enough at $20 per point) keep in mind that the swings tend to be in 25 point ranges.
Getting in and out with 18 points a shot ($360) is a great way to play this baby.
GREED KILLS and it is better to be QUICK (in and out with a tidy profit) than
DEAD.

JYEN-up on the overnight 30 points and is right at a SELLING spot. SELL sept
at 9270 with a stop at 9282 and look to fill the gap back to 9241 Those looking for
the "big one" keep in mind that if 9226 is breached then we may see a 100 point
down day.

07/26/00

There exists a never ending battle between TECHNICIANS and FUNDAMENTALISTS (not the religious group) over which method is more analytically correct. I am of the school of the former yet do not discard the philosophies of the latter. My reasons are sound and simple. Whether it is Earnings per share, Crude inventories, or Bean stocks I leave it to the 90 pencil pushers at Merrill to dissect the data and reassemble it into a "tangible #" which may equal $4.80 per bushel. Will Beans ONLY trade at $4.80 till the next report?? Of course NOT! The price will gyrate, find support/resistance at different levels for various users/producers and leave an indelible footprint for me to analyze-THE CHART.
Rainy day in New York City in the middle of the week (like TODAY) is my favorite type of DAYTRADING environment (brokers don't stay outside watching the chicks and NOONE leaves early) since most of the markets are "Thick" (heavy
volume) So with no further adieu on to the (DAY) TRADES.

MINIS&P- # for SELL yesterday was 1488.50 (high for mini was
1488.00 big one 1488.50) and today it is a DUAL play SELL one
E-MINI (electronically traded market) at 1489.75 and ANOTHER
at 1490.75 with a STOP FOR BOTH at 1492.25 with a total risk of
4 points ($50 per in MINI)

SOY BEANS- Buy a DIP below $4.50 at 447 1/2 with a stop at 444
1/2 (risk 3 cents $150)

COTTON- Double top "in". Dropped (from highs) 175 points
expect bounce to 6020 to get last of stops SELL OCT at 6017
with a 6055 stop (risk 37 points $5 per)

WHEAT-on a STOP to catch a "breakout" BUY SEPT AT 247,
when filled use a 244 3/4 stop with an exit target of 252 3/4.

07/25/00

Now that George W. has selected Richard Cheney as his Veep My only regret is
that I do not own the copyright for buttons and bumper stickers that will no doubt
read "BUSH and DICK". On a more serious note "BIG AL" will address the
House Banking committee and supposedly will only "reiterate" his monetary policy
statements from his last speech, but RUMOR has it that he MAY change the text a
little. Stay tuned. On to the TRADES.

JYEN formed a near perfect DOWN channel since the 4th and I was looking to
SELL a slight rally at 9333. Unfortunately the overnight YEn is down 40 with a
LOW (9336) taking out the last fractal. Buying here (9245) is a bit risky but with a stop reverse at 9233I feel it is a highly probable play.

QUICK NOTES
COTTON-heat driven back to double top SELL at 6140 6185 stop exit at gap
S&P-bearish down to 1458 slight bounce SELL mini at 1488.50 stop 1491.25
WHEAT-double top support at 239 BUY with a 2 1/4 cent stop 236 3/4
SILVER/GOLD-LONG S short the weaker Aug gold ($5.00/$283.00)
LIVE CATTLE-Aug will retrace to 6965 SELL and look for NEW LOWS

07/24/00

With half of the earnings reports in and data that revealed a slowing down of
the Economy and lack of inflation one would think the Stock Market soared last
week but such was not the case. Technical failings in the Nasdaq and Dow seem to
be signaling a retreat in Stock Prices for the next couple of days. Economic reports
for this week are not plentiful but none the less important. Tuesday the Consumer
Confidence Index will reveal a slight increase to 139.0 from 138.8 and existing home
sales OFF .09 mill (more bearish news for Lumber) from last month. Thursday
Initial Jobless claims for the week of 7/22 will come in at 295,000 down big from
311,000 while Cost of Employment for the Second Quarter will drop from 1.4% to
1.0%. Durable Goods Orders are soft at +0.5% compared with +6.1% in May.
Finally GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is slated to be +3.5%, a decline form the
First Quarter number of +5.5%. Today Annual Agricultural Prices will be released
also. On to the Trades.

COCOA-retraced to the 871 level (they then REMOVED the LOW tick) and
was basically unchanged for the day. Fractal which was broken on Thursday (867)
indicates that 947 is the next target. Market has opened down 14 to 873 and a
BUY at this level is in order. use a 859 stop.

UNLEADED GASOLINE- crushed the past few days and even LOWER in
the overnight (down 256 in Aug 8875). Options expire Weds with an API
(American Institute of Petroleum) report due TUES. Can you say "REBOUND"?
BUY the AUG 90 call for 60-75 points (each point is $4.20 option actually
settled at 254 points).

07/21/00

The majority of traders I speak with have the misconception that "getting in" to a
position requires more time, effort, and thought than "getting out". They are, for all
practical purposes, EVEN in importance and both should be planned in advance. In
the past "glasses" (mostly Friday's) I compose Tips and Tricks to better understand
markets and how to approach them. If you are New to these E-Letters browse
through PAST TRADES at my Web site and check out a few of the past issues.
Sign Above one of my screens describes the TWO types of Traders in this Business
THE QUICK and THE DEAD. On to the TRADES.

COCOA-broke through the Double top and took out Fractal at 867. Next
Stop?? 932 but calls are a tad juiced. Look for a DAYTRADE on a surge toward
900. SELL Sept at 894 with a 902 stop and EXIT at 871.

S&P-is weak in the overnight (down 5.00) and with last day of JULY OPTIONS
it could be an "any thing can happen day" I like the DAYTRADE on the OPEN to
fill the overnight gap and continue a climb to the early week's high in the upper
1520's. BUY (MINI) S&P SEPT at 1508.75 with a stop at 1504.50 (each 1.00
is worth $50)

07/20/00

All eyes (and EARS) will be turned toward "BIG AL" and his words of
wisdom and insight into our financial state. Tends to put a bit of a damper on the
early morning daytrading range for The Stock Indexes but if you have ever listened
to the person I feel is the "most powerful individual" on our planet you will see that
each of his sentences are so cleverly constructed that it often takes a panel of experts
just to decipher into terms useable for analysis. The advice I most often give before
meetings of this nature is to not try to "GUESS" what the results may be, simply sit
on the side lines and watch the "carnage" (tight stops DON"T help in a "FAST"
market). OPTIONS that expire on Friday (JULY DOW and S&P) are an ideal way
to approach a speculative position today. On to the TRADES.

SILVER-same story (Dog with Fleas) but may have a DAYTRADE setting up.
With hints of direction of futures interest hikes probably discernible after "Big Al"
speaks could see a reaction in this Metal. On a slight dip BUY SEPT at 498 1/2
with a stop at 496 1/2 ($100 risk) look to exit at 504 1/2.

JYEN-is suspiciously quiet today and a BUY at 9333 with a tight stop at 9324
should work in the wake of the deficit reports yesterday and the "retracement "
factor.

07/19/00

With the high volatility recently displayed in various futures markets (see
Coffee and Crude) it seems like a good time to detail an often forgotten Index in the
commodities world, the CRB (a basket of commodities described below) can
afford protection and profitability in the event that radical inflationary fears are
achieved. Exact prices are difficult to estimate due to the normally low volume in this
contract but with "things"heating up liquidity should no longer be a problem. I hope
that you take some time and contemplate a side account to take advantage of this
upcoming event NOW!
CRB/Bridge Index Futures
Softs: Coffee, sugar, cocoa,
orange juice,
Energy: Crude oil, heating oil
natural gas
Grains: Corn, soybean, wheat
Precious Metals: Gold, platinum, silver
Industrials: Cotton, copper
Livestock: Live cattle, lean hogs
Softs - 24%; Energy - 18%; Grains - 18%; Precious Metals - 18%;
Industrials - 11%; Livestock - 11%.
This index is valued at $500 per point making it a very lucrative speculator market if
one proves to be correct. On to the TRADES.
CRUDE OIL-hitting 3235 (just shy of "the GAP") has "dogged" many who believe the
OPEC ministers. Pivotal point is at 3250 since a breech of that area will signal a
retest of the highs or at least another top formation at 33.75. Recommended
Unleaded Gasoline as an option play yesterday (quick notes) but the low was 100
and I held out for 90. On a DAYTRADE to take advantage of some technical
liquidation SELL AUG CRUDE (only two days left in contract) at 3258 with a
3272 stop looking for 50 points.

MINI S&P-down 5.00 right now and heading toward the 1500 level to take out some
stops. You may want to be short (1506.50) until this area is reached but the wiser
move is to wait and BUY at 1498.50 with a stop at 1494.50 risking 4 points ($50
per in the MINI $250 in the big boy). Exit at the "GAP" 1511.50

07/18/00

Summer slowdown took a "vacation" in many areas of futures trading.
Cotton (limit UP), Lumber (limit DOWN), coffee (9 cents up, and Copper all had
major moves and other markets seemed poised to follow suit. BIG PLAY this week
still rests in the Stock Indexes where not only are a plethora of earnings reports due
throughout the week but with JULY (not june sorry) OPTIONS expiring on Friday
and "BIG AL" making a congressional address on Thursday I expect to see some
late season fireworks. This mornings CPI report will also add an interesting
component to the mix. On to the TRADES.

STOCK INDEXES-mainly the Dow and S&P are at drastically different
levels, chartwise. S&P is a hair off of its lifetime highs (cash that is) while the DOW
is several stages (fractals) behind. Is this a CLUE to the upcoming moves? I will go
with strength and against weakness by looking for a DOW PUT and an S&P
CALL. Best time to get these options may not be until Wed. when the
out-of-the-money strikes are more price reasonable. Placing "Aggressive" (price
needs to drop drastically) Limit orders in these option markets are the way to go.
DOW 10.900 PUTS (at the money) traded at $1000 and IF the market staged a
mild rally to 11,000 one may get these for $400. As for S&P's the 1535 CALL
(settled at 8 points,$250 per on BIG one and $50 for MINI) would be an
outstanding purchase at 5 points. Remember to buy at least TWO to allow for a
future trade down the road.
QUICK NOTES
SUGAR-nearing SELL area of 10.00 (988 is my spot)
COCOA-should continue slide even with coffee and sugar UP.SELL 847
BEANS-one bushel costs the same as a pack of cigarettes and worth less
UNLEADED GAS-8 days for AUG OPTIONS $1.00 CALL for 90 points

07/17/00

As usual , Government numbers released on Friday issued mixed signals.
Inflation does not seem to be as much of a concern as "adjustments" from past data
helped reflect a slow down in our economy. This week the major focus will be on a
variety of earnings reports. Other specific information for dissemination is as follows:
Today Business Inventories are expected to be Unchanged from last month
(+0.4%) and Tomorrow's CPI (Consumer Price Index) will have almost the same
results as Friday's PPI- up 0.5% and unchanged excluding Energy and Food. Wed.
U.S. International Trade figures will not show much of a change from the past month
(-$30.4 Bil to -$30.5 Bil) and for those trading Lumber the Housing starts (down
.02 mill) and Building Permits (up .03 mill) seem to offset each other. Friday will
feature COLD STORAGE reports (affecting OJ and PORK BELLIES) Livestock
Slaughter and the EXPIRATION of JUNE STOCK INDEX OPTIONS and
AUGUST GRAIN OPTIONS. On to the TRADES.

DOW JONES-is quite close to both a significant number (11,000) and a Fractal
Top (11,025) that prompts me to look at an "old" trading play- "The Monday
DOW Trend Trade" which states that (due to the weekend and accumulation of
news) if the Dow Jones CASH market trades Up or Down 50 points in the first
half hour to go in the direction of the move until 100-120 point move has
occurred. With the Dow Futures settling at 10895 that means BUY at 10945 with
the 11,000 to the TOP (11025) as the EXIT area. OPTIONS expire on Friday
and they should be a good play materializing by WED.

COCOA-for JULY ended on a weak note Friday (down 15 to 816) in its Last
day of Trading. Contract lows for that month was 771 and I see the SEPT testing
that area soon. Besides the 800 PUTS for $90 (9 points) a DAYTRADE
SELLING SEPT at 838 with a stop at 847 is a good way to start the trading
week,

COFFEE-up 9 cents Thursday DOWN 10 CENTS Friday (options expired).
Considering that this market is worth $375 per Penny that is some roller coaster
ride. What to do NOW?? Still a threat of frost as we are in the midst of Brazil's
winter BUT premiums in the CALLS are "way over JUICED" for the average
speculator. SPREADS seem to be the ticket and though "they" are tough to fill in
this market try to get LONG a 110 SEPT CALL and SHORT a SEPT 120
CALL for one cent (100 points $375) looking for a 10 to one payoff.

07/14/00

The storming of the Bastille, on July 14 1789, immediately became a symbol of
historical dimension; it was proof that power no longer resided in the King or in God,
but in the people, in accordance with the theories developed by the Philosophies of
the eighteenth century. What does this have to do with COMMODITIES???
Absolutely Nothing, but since my Mother is French I celebrate Bastille Day as
does all of France. As far as the markets go, today is a typical Friday-Multiple
reports released, Producer Price Index (expected to be +0.5% and excluding
Food and Energy +0.1%) Retail Sales (+0.4% and +0.5% excl. auto), Industrial
production and Capacity Utilization. Option expirations in Aug Gold, Silver,
Coffee, and Sugar as well as Last Trading day for JULY GRAINS and Cocoa. On
to the TRADES.

CRUDE OIL-soared after news of "Nothing done" was released regarding
increase of production by OPEC. OPTIONS, which are "juiced up" for August,
EXPIRE on Monday. I have stated that the "Huge GAP" (tired of hearing that
yet?) at $32.50 should be filled and with Crude for Aug going out on its high (3135)
it is now only a "stones throw away". IF the $32.00 area is breached early in the
morning it might be a wise play to try to pick up some PUTS (3100 should trade
below 20 points $200). Those who see more bullishness on the horizon or want to
get in on the run up should look at the UNLEADED GASOLINE AUG 102
CALLS for 100 points ($420) expiration for them is the 27th

07/13/00

The saying goes "Buy the Rumor Sell the News" but it works both ways in
the futures markets. A perfect example is the CRUDE OIL. Last week on the
"rumor" that the Saudis were going to increase production by 500,000 barrels hit the
market like a ton of bricks leaving a "Huge Gap" in its wake. The actual meeting (the
"NEWS") came yesterday and- SURPRISE!- nothing was agreed upon and the Oil
is now back on its way to fill the price gap at 32.50. Love to go against the General
Public! On to the TRADES.

COTTON-the "terminator" of commodities (you can't "Destroy" it) is
experiencing a mild retracement rally even in the midst of "oversupply". Weather
will NOT be a factor and demand cannot conceivably outstrip supply. Oct Open
Interest (4400) is dwarfed by the DEC (34,000) so I don't foresee any delivery
pressure down the road. Though it is a long term play (no serial options here) and
expensive (for the "GLASS") I like the OCT 54.00 PUTS for 85 points (sett at
1.11) ($425) 50 cent cotton , although contract LOWS, is not unfathomable.

SILVER-still a "dog with fleas" but can come to life at any moment. PPI
(Producer Price Index) is due tomorrow and the options (aug) expire. BUY a SEPT
CALL COMBO for 6 1/2 cents ($325) which would consist of One 525 CALL
and One 550 CALL. Root for INFLATION!

07/12/00

Trading the futures markets in the slower Summer days is akin to taking that
Family cross-country vacation. The highway signs can give you some general
indications to take but when you come to the local neighborhoods, to arrive at your
specific destination, you must often ask foe directions. Such is true in multiple areas
of commodities. Quick example-Weather-always a "wild card" as not only are our
summers filled with drought or flood hype, causing large fluctuations in Grains and
Energy, but it is Winter in the other half of the World and Frost (or the threat of) can
be a big factor in OJ or Coffee (like the last few days) Further inspection of trends
would show that often as Coffee "runs" Sugar and Cocoa (sister markets on the
same trading floor) get in on the action Opportunities are then set-up for "dips" in
overbought futures using inexpensive Options. This is what I do-Give SPECIFIC
direction. As was once quoted" The BEST investors always seek a second opinion".
CROP PRODUCTION #'s released at 8:30 est (heavy number crunching till
opening)
ON TO THE TRADES

COCOA-normally would experience some delivery pressure at this time of
month but that will not be the case. Jump of $15 yesterday could be off of the strong
Coffee market and the chart shows a BEARISH double-top formed (previous high
867 yesterday 863. Shorting the market at this area with a STOP REVERSE
at 871 is the technical play. In OPTIONS one SEPT 850 PUT for 21 points
($210) and TWO 800 PUTS for $90 will give you a good base to trade off of for
the next three weeks.

OJ-may see some "frost" hype just like coffee only with the CROP Production
numbers to be released BEFORE the opening is is hard to gauge where this baby
will come in at. I like the 85.00 SEPT calls for 1.00 cent ($150).

07/11/00

"Can't do very much if the market does not let you" is the theme in the
summer for many commodities. Small daily ranges (cocoa 12 points, Silver 3 cents and
OJ less than 1 cent) keep the number of plays limited yet can be of benefit if they are
prolonged. Flat markets make for some of the best option moves when timed properly
before reports or key meetings. Today, at 9:30 est, "BIG AL" Greenspan speaks to
the board of governors. If anyone had breakfast with him and knows what he will
speak about-GIVE ME A RING! If one were daytrading the stock Indexes this
morning I would AVOID the opening-better safe than sorry. On to the TRADES.

CRUDE OIL-has headlined for the past week news of an INCREASE in supply
by the OPEC nations. Approval of this plan will be passed on Wed. and coupling that
fact with the Tues night API report (American Institute of Petroleum) should
produce some "action" in this already volatile market. Options expire on Monday
(AUG) and with a HUGE GAP at $32.50 (futures settled at $29.69) the 3050
strike (CALLS) for 27-29 points is solid. Look for HINTS of report leakage around
NOON. (market usually starts in one direction then reverses)

WHEAT-has been dragged down by the Corn and Beans as of late yet is not
affected by the heat and excessive rain as much as the latter. with Sept modestly
priced at $2.57 a option combo play is in order. BUY one 260 sept CALL for 3
cents ($150) and TWO 270 calls for 1 1/2 cents ($150 for both). On a
DAYTRADE BUY the dip to 2.55 1/4 with a Very Tight Stop at 253 3/4 (all of
a $75 risk)

07/10/00

First full week of July begins with a variety of reports and data. Today, at 8:
30 est, consumer credit #'s will show a decrease to $8.0 Bil from $9.3 Bil. which could
keep the Stock Market humming. Tuesday Wholesale trade figures may be up 0.1%
to +0.4%. In grain related activity USDA CROP PRODUCTION report (WED),
WORLD PRODUCTION (THUR) and finally the LAST TRADING DAY for the
JULY contracts (FRI) Initial Jobless Claims will come in at 301,000 up 5,000 from the
previous report and Friday will have a slew of information starting with Producer Price
Index, a key gauge of Inflation, is slated to come in at +0.5% way up from the
UNCHANGED number last month. Excluding food and energy the rate is expected to
DROP 0.1%. Retail Sales were strong and the +0.4% projected increase is up .7%
from May's -0.3%. Finally Industrial Production and capacity Utilization figures are
slightly weaker. Should get back into the swing of things this week and avoid the
"summer slowdown" that will sporadically appear for the next few months. On to the
TRADES.
GOLD and SILVER-charts say two things- for GOLD it screams SELL and
for SILVER it says "you can't figure me out" So with that information and the
expected release of the possible Inflationary PPI report on Friday there are several
plays that appear viable. LONG SEPT SILVER/ SHORT AUGUST GOLD is a
spread that should yield a profit by weeks end. Short term moves involve the
EXPIRING OPTIONS on Friday (AUG GOLD and AUG SILVER). Like the idea
of getting two AUG silver puts and long a future contract to have some protection but
the serial option in this metal DOES NOT trade off of the major(sept) month like most
markets and the open interest in AUG SILVER is almost nil. LOOK at GOLD
STRANGLE LONG 290 CALL for $130 and 285 PUT for $220. Good
complement to the spread.

PORK BELLIES-have soared on "BACON hype" and broke the 90 cent area
again. May have seen the TOP on friday's spike to 91.20 in the Aug. Options are
always expensive in the Belly market so look to the JULY LEAN HOG 70.00
PUTS (One week to go) at 30 points each ($120) of on a daytrade SELL AUG PB
at 91.90 with a stop at 92.55 risking $260. Keep in mind the WSJ touted bellies on
the RISE. (I love to FADE 'em)
QUICK NOTES
COPPER-due to retest 80.00 (SEPT) stay short till then and REVERSE
CRUDE OIL-left "GIANT" GAP at 32.50 week (left) on options BUY CALLS
SUGAR-short term Head/Shoulders SELL 878 (OCT) exit 821

07/07/00

Patience, besides being a virtue, is a Key factor in the discipline element of
trading (not just Futures). Whether it is for Position, Day, or Option trading, waiting
for the market to reach your entry (or exit) price is essential. Your analysis may be
slightly "off" and occasionally a small adjustment may be necessary but do not be too
hasty as even if you "miss a good one" there is ALWAYS another trade "around the
corner". Here are a few tips to help you focus on Discipline:

Place BUY or SELL LIMITS slightly outside of the previous days
support/resistance. (this is where most "stops" are located)
Use "OPEN ORDERS" (Good Till Canceled) this is a way to "act rather than
react". Your trade is already in the hands of the floor broker and can be
executed or change quickly.
Stay on top of your trades. If your price "trades" call to cancel replace and
move your price AWAY. If the trade was executed you will receive a TLTC
(Too Late To Cancel) and be filled at your original price, if not you may get a
better price as the market moves further.
Be familiar with each markets "significant numbers" (Strike prices, Round
#'s, Historicals, etc.)
NEVER "chase" after a price. This leads to altering your game plan and
plays into the hands of the FLOOR.

Keep in mind that FUTURES are a "zero sum" game, for every $ made there is a $
lost, and it is YOU verses THEM. There are NO friends in this business. "NUFF
SAID!
GRAINS-are still under the gun as forecasts for a "bumper" crop in corn and
beans have left these markets to spiral down to ONE YEAR lows. Next week
features the USDA CROP PRODUCTION report (WED), WORLD
PRODUCTION (THUR) and finally the LAST TRADING DAY for the JULY
contracts (FRI). IS THERE ANY CHANCE FOR A LATE BEAN RALLY???
The ODDS are against but that is what makes a ball game. They have to PLAY
before a winner can be determined. CALLS (any strike-corn or beans) are in a word
CHEAP. Would look at the 490 AUG serial option as the most feasible play for 3
cents ($150). If you have already gone "off the deep end" on previous BEAN plays
Call it an early day today and avoid this recommendation, I hate throwing good money
after bad.

07/06/00

It is the middle of the (trading) week and that means we will go to the daily charts
and see what DAYTRADES we can come up with. Currency options a still a viable
play with 30 hours till Friday's expiration though the "shot" we took in the JYEN may
not materialize due to conflicts about possible interest rate hike. Not dead yet which
means anything can still happen. On to the trades.
COTTON-for delivery (JULY) hit contract LOWS of 50 cents per pound (50.00)
as only 77 contracts remain open. As mentioned in early May,this resilient fiber is not
very susceptible to drought or flood damage and has been in plentiful supply as of late.
Question I have is WHY did Open Interest RISE almost 10% on a quiet day???
Could be a signal that the bottom is in since this market has dropped over 10 cents
($5,000) in the past month. On a DAYTRADE BUY the OCT at 54.45 with a stop
at 5390 risking approx $250, and OPTIONWISE I am NOT too bullish so
SELLING PUTS (the OCT 53 for 125 points $625) is the higher percentage play.
COCOA-is another market that is almost always a good sell after a "spike" rally.
Options for AUG expire on Friday and I expect to see 800 trade in the SEPT contract
by then (settlement yesterday 841) On a DAYTRADE SELL at 854 with a stop at
866 (risk 12 points or $120) expect some support at 811.
ORANGE JUICE-will make another test of 85.00 before it takes out contract
lows (79.15) and after yesterday's 280 point dip look for a rebound up to that level.
BUY SEPT OJ at 8150 (set px) with a 100 point stop ($150) and look to exit near
84.90.

LIVE CATTLE-for AUGUST was touted as a sell and things have been going just
fine until yesterday's 87 point rally. Great opportunity to SELL this baby at 67.97
which is just above this week's high us a stop at 68.40 which would be a risk of
$170. Profit target is 66.55 (each .05 $20)

07/05/00

Seems like an eternity since I last composed and while most markets also took a small
sabbatical a few made some significant moves. With the announcement of INCREASED productionn by the Saudi's Crude Oil will open a least $2.00 LOWER. The Stock Market used the shortened trading day to post some decent gains (DOW UP 125) and should continue for opening today. Leading Indicators will be released today and Friday will reveal the recent Employment data that the market watches closely. Three days until the weekend and that should give us plenty of time to evaluate various commodity situations. On to the TRADES.

GRAINS-took NO PRISONERS on Monday's shortened session as Friday's acreage report coupled with "ideal" weather forecasts resulted in prices being "slammed", (Beans down 10 cents, Corn 4,and Wheat 14) The "drought" play seems all but over even though this is the critical time of the year for the Beans and Corn. With the JULY Bean Open Interest being below 7,000 it does not seem likely that any delivery pressure will surface to support prices. One possible redeeming point is that the drop has been very fast and a retracement is due. For those who are still "licking their wounds" on my AUG CALL recommendation might want to take one last "stab" at the $5.00 CALLS (AUG BEANS NOW AT 479) for a little less than 4 cents ($200).

JYEN-hit a snag in the overnight and should open DOWN almost 100 points at the 9500 level. OPTIONS expire on FRIDAY and with a few economic reports due to be released volatility should be high. BUY JULY 9600 CALLS for 15-18 points ($187-$225) which settled at 50.