AUGUST 2000

08/31/00

         Mixed market yesterday, as we approached today's month end, with a shuffling of portfolios leading to a day long divergence between the WEAK DOW and the resilient NASDAQ (S&P doing what we have expected still see 1495.50 in next 24 hours buy there) Industrials are worried about High Energy prices as the future demand for Heating Oil and Natural Gas are only seen to be rising. Wonder when the I-word starts to get tossed around again (maybe not till Crude hits $40). Anyway outside of the Options we bought early this week (Cocoa [calls], L Cattle[calls], and Soy Beans [puts] I only see Currencies as having any play since the WORLD will NOT be CLOSED on MONDAY (everything here is though) and Swiss Yen and BPound expire in one week and one day. Today's moral is to stick with Daytrading for the rest of the week and DO NOT be shy to take SMALL QUICK profits and enjoy the EXTRA LONG WEEKEND (Oh did I mention, and this is for the last time till the day after Thanksgiving, NO
ONEGLASS ON FRIDAY )


COCOA-shot up on the close as possible delivery pressure on the SEPT contract is materializing. DEC settled at 801 and see a BUY at the 796 area as a solid play if the opening is soft. GOOD CHANCE the market "GAPS" higher and if 811 is broken a jump to 838 (would be approx 800 in SEPT) place BOTH orders (BUY LIMIT AT 796 and BUY STOP 811) if filled and 822 trades you can buy a OCT 800 PUT for two day protection for $50 (5 points) 800 CALLS OCT (for those who do not want to carry a position) go for $90 to $110.

SUGAR-closed at 1076 with a daily low of 1066 and that means exactly WHAT? That this cane sweetener WILL TAKE OUT CONTRACT HIGHS but not until one last "cleanout" down to 1050. I like MORE LONGS at 1056 and you MIGHT find value in the 1100 OCT CALLS for 9 points (after the drop) or the in-the-money 1050 for maybe 17 points (each point is $11.20) Hurricane may appear out of no where this weekend and cause havoc in Tuesday's opening.

08/30/00

Still AUG, STILL SLOW so I will be brief and hopefully CORRECT again (S&P was almost ALL US yesterday). On to the TRADES.

S&P-never broke early morning high of 1519.50 yet bounced nicely at 1509.50 (we said BUY at 1510.00) Today will probably see a test of 1525.00 which would again be a SELL with a stop just above the 1530.00 high of Monday. DON'T want to SELL?? could see a retest of 1512.50 (higher low) as a BUY area but caution since I see1500.00 being the "real" test level. Keep eye on NASDAQ for one more sell
at 4011.50 (mini recommended)

SOY BEANS-with another "gap" higher day leaving Beans up over 20 cents since Friday's close. Technicals point toward both a retracement and filling of BOTH GAPS (second one is at 461 in the SEPT)SELL spot is 487 with a 490 1/2 stop. Still
have the OCT serial options in play and , YES, I LIKE PUTS, and they are (hate to use this word) CHEAP!!!

LIVE CATTLE-spiraled toward yearly lows as the MEAT complex is under heavy attack lead by the BELLIES. Options expire on Friday and a few 6800 CALLS for 25 points ($100) won't be the worst trade you ever did. Buy two with the intention of
going short a protected contract at 68.22

08/29/00

"Anything can happen" starts off with "the Tiger" Losing! What
next, maybe an end to the mild run-up the stock market is having? Or a
trend reversal and "nothing happens". Personal Saving which came out
yesterday revealed that America is at its LOWEST level of savings
since I was born in 1959. That does not sound Bullish to me. Today
Consumer Confidence numbers are expected unchanged but any
weakness could be over exaggerated. On to the TRADES.

S&P-zoomed to 1530.00 by noon only to "give back" most of the gains.
Overnight is slow with the mini at 1518.00. I like a SELL at 1519.75
with a 1523.25 stop and look to test 1510.00. If successful RESELL
1514.75 retrace down to 1502.50.

COCOA-with only four days till expiration of the Oct OPTIONS see
a POP-up in this down beaten market. Rallies in the DEC contract to
815 should be sold verse one of two CALLS that we are BUYING today
at 7 points $70. The STRIKE is 800 for OCT COCOA CALLS. Get 'em
while the market is down right NOW. LONG FUTURES (DEC) at 790
is a good DAYTRADE.

08/28/00

May be an "anything can happen week" (as many are) and I say that because I saw a
FOOTBALL game Postponed last night. What kind of excuse is Too much Lightening? Expect to see some "softness" in stocks this week and beware the trend (today and for the week) since that has been the "modis apperandi" prior to big moves. Consumer confidence report on Tuesday is slated to be unchanged but the slippage of Leading Indicators (=.1% last month -.1% now) to be released Wed. may start the ball rolling down hill. Low volume week is again expected so take
profits quickly or there may be NONE On to the TRADES.

REMINDER OPTIONS for HEATING OIL, NATURAL GAS, UNLEADED GAS, and COPPER all EXPIRE TODAY unless already in them stay away.


SUGAR-should not be listed here except to guide those who BOUGHT in the
low 1050's, 40's, and 30's with the STOP at 1019. With a settlement
above 1080 on Friday it could all be in the hands of the weather as any
additional BULLISH news sends the sweetener through 11.50 with sights on
12.00. A GAP lower would be a very good BUY signal and entry price of
1067 the spot. Oct calls with two weeks to go still viable

QUICK NOTES
SOY BEANS-SELLING rallies verses erratic weather SOLID play 464 3/4.
JYEN-has full confidence of gov't to approach 100y=$1 RUN WITH TREND.
HEATING OIL-strongest of three will remain so, Chance to BUY CRUDE.
CAN $-should be SOLD at 67.79 gap risk to 68.03 double up at 67.21

08/24/00

Will mostly repeat and rehash a few past ramblings today and tomorrow, Friday
the 25th, there will be NO "GLASS". Am curious to know how many followers had a 1494.50 STOP in the Mini S&P yesterday (that was my REC and the LOW was 1494.75 WHO ARE WE??) Anyway you are only as good as your last trade so the saying goes. Reminder that the SELL OPTION PLAYS from TUES can be initiated late Thursday till mid Friday. Weather is constantly a factor The Trick is to catch seasonal markets during "spikes" or "cleanouts" while they are vulnerable to fast price drops (NATURAL GAS this past week). With the hurricane season here various markets can fall victim to sporadic weather driven moves. Natural Gas and Crude Oil
SPIKE when there is tropical storm activity in the Gulf, repairs to homes due to hurricane damage boost the Lumber market, and occasionally Orange Groves suffer as might be the case this Friday.  Low volume is the norm in many markets and will remain so till after the Labor Day weekend. Will still "hunt for winners".

COFFEE-is s l o w l y squeezing out the last of the longs as it broke Contract Lows on the Wed close. Could "gap" lower this morning in which case a BUY SEPT at 71.10 and a STOP at 69.70 is a BIG RISK both $ wise (140 points $525) and market selection since this caffeinated bean has roasted many a daytrader. Given this scenario exit at 74.90 and start the weekend EARLY!

SOY BEANS-were suspiciously quiet yesterday after forming a perfect double top at 466 1/2 (break out point) on Tuesday and recovered off the lows. I AM BEARISH beans since the facts overwhelmingly point toward more beans than ANYONE can count. Yet the technician in me sees a "quick run" in the Sept contract to a GAP at 473 1/4. That is the SELL REVERSE point. If you do want to wait for the breakout point take a chance with a 455 1/4 BUY and a 453 1/2 stop. Nov PUTS will look attractive in the next few days if the gap is filled.

CANADIAN DOLLAR-was shellacked due to "kinks" in the Toronto exchange. Solid support at 6722 (prev low 67.21) points toward a "bounce" to fill yet another "gap" (67.79) where you can reverse. At $10 a point and not known as a "highly volatile" market this secondary currency can provide a novice trader with some good day trading experience at a "modest cost" (if we're wrong) If not much over night activity go LONG at 67.34 with a SELL STOP REVERSE at 67.19 and follow the above exit numbers.

08/23/00

Traders who Insist on being "IN" the Indices before "the number" (FED report at 2:15) and the "carnage" that follows never ceases to amaze (and Entertain) me! I usually scribe a special warning as to why no one should be daytrading (or even holding positions) when Major Market Moving data is due for release, especially when it is DURING trading hours. Yesterday, within 17 minutes, the S&P dropped 4 points ($1000) rallied 8 points to new highs and then dumped down 12 points by the close. WHO MADE MONEY??? While the "dead" never do, even the "quick" can not battle with the "FAST MARKET" conditions and massive stop slippage. I guess that leaves the floor traders with all the cash, again. On to the TRADES

NATURAL GAS-pulled back a solid 20 points after reaching contract HIGHS at 4.8500.
Still see 5.0000 as a perfect target and with Hurricanes season well under way and API reports that were EXTREMELY BULLISH for the OILS a BUY of the SEPT at 4.5050 and a $600 stop at 4.4450 if filled on the opening could be a big winner.

ORANGE JUICE-another "HH" (Hurricane Hype) market that needs all the bullish news it can muster as it has been tail spinning to contract lows for a month. NOV settled at 75.75 and the 80.00 CALLS for 2.00 (two cents=$300) is more than a decent mid-term play. Sept ran up the most yesterday but if there is damage then NOV will follow. Buy breakout at 76.10

MINI S&P-will be a BUY at the 1498.25 spot with a modest 1494.50 stop risking about
$200. Look to rally up to yesterdays high (1515.00) or for the not-so-greedy exit at 1507.50.
Market at 1502.50 at 8:25 edt.

08/22/00

Keeping in mind that there are more "systems" around the trading world
than there are vehicles to trade. I will touch on a popular (yet Dangerous) element of
some of those strategies. SELLING TIME, a favorite among many since, in
essence, you are receiving Cash today for a possibly worthless (option that is
out-of-the-money on expiration day) product tomorrow. Of course the shorter the
time period the less risk you are exposed to except that rarely can you get any
"decent" premium with only a couple of days left (all Risk, little profit-which is why I
am normally a BUYER of STO (Short Term Options)). Occasionally opportunities
appear that may allow us to "STEAL" time. On MONDAY four markets will have
option expirations-COPPER, HEATING OIL, UNLEADED GASOLINE, and
NATURAL GAS (made a great call in that last week). If a trader were to SELL a
variety of PUTS and CALLS on FRIDAY there would be three (3) days left till
expiration (Sat, Sun, Mon) but only ONE TRADING DAY. That Could mean a
66% erosion of the option premium by the opening bell. Looks "EASY" on paper
but I have NEVER referred to the floor brokers as "stupid"(Thieves maybe but
defiantly NOT stupid) and taking money from them is no walk in the park.
Strangles will reduce overall exposure but it is more advisable to SELL spike and
cleanouts taking only one side.

COPPER-slumped on increase in Stock Data which is conveniently bringing it to fill
a midterm "gap" at 84.95. Daytrade wise BUY 84.75 with a stop at 84.35 ($100
risk). OPTION SELLERS place an order to SELL the SEPT 84.00 PUTS for
.95 (just under $250) and for BUYERS I like the 86.00 CALLS dipping down to
40 points ($100)

08/21/00

Had 63 other gofers ( I mean GOLFERS) but to no avail as the "Tiger"
ruled. Next big favorite is that there will be NO hike in interest rates at tomorrow's
Fed meeting. "Big Al" will probably impose his "upward" bias to the report but
overwhelming consensus firmly believes that is it. Options for the Indexes expired
on Friday and this is an UNUSUALLY SLOW WEEK. Not a single market has
an Option Expiration And the economic data to be released is limited. Tuesday is
the FOMC meeting, Thursday Initial Job claims may be down 1,000 to 312,000 and
Durable Goods could shock investors by coming in at -7.7% a drastic drop from
+9.7% in June. Friday will feature GDP (preliminary) info for the Second Quarter at
a steady 5.4% growth up from 5.2% and Existing Home Sales decreasing .10 mil to
5.13 mil. As I said it does SEEM like it will be one of those weeks that should not
only NOT be overtraded but one may consider a few VACATION days while the
trading is SLOW. On to the TRADES.

SWISS FRANC-continues to slip into the nether regions of CONTRACT LOWS
(5783) though a "Bounce" can be expected at that level. Market opened up at
5801 and with "rumors" of a hike in the Euro down the road (ECB meets on Aug
31st) would take a chance on a LONG position at 5786 with a 5774 STOP. Do
not see any rally lasting TOO long and for those who like "set-up" option trades
here's one BUY two SWISS SEPT 5900 CALLS for 20 points and look to
SHORT the contract later in the week at the strike price (5900) and effectively
own "both sides" of the market for a 40 point ($500) risk.

STOCK MARKET-slightly Bullish in the overnight trading (Dow up 30 S&P up
1.00 and NASDAQ up 5.00. Like the UP SIDE this week as well as the
MONDAY TREND TRADE in the DOW (especially since I am looking to fill the
GAP at 11225. BUY DOW on STOP at 11140 (breakout point).

08/18/00

                 Touched base on a number of markets this week and will stick with DAYTRADES and get right to them.

COCOA-does not open eyes with its slow and steady decent but short term rally seems in the charts. Lows last week for SEPT (747 also contract LOW) were not broken Thursday which is symbolic of a Bullish double bottom. If the opening is steady to lower JUMP IN on the long side for an early morning daytrade. Serial OPTIONS (OCT trades off of DEC contract price) ARE INEXPENSIVE and better than the longer term DEC since I think this will be a short lived rally.

DOW JONES-given favorable early morning news TODAY this will be the STRONGEST of the three Stock Indexes. I look to see the early week "gap" at 11,225. Yes that would be UP 100 points on the DAY. BOLD CALL and if you ride one up there I sense reverse, Especially if it is around 3:00. Best entry spot ??? My guess is Enter on a BUY STOP at 11140 OR wait till that price is hit and BUY the quick (if it even exists ) pullback to 11121. Stops (protective sells) should be just below 11100.

08/17/00

Trades looked so good yesterday I had to print them TWICE ( SORRY) Now we can look
for that "Quad-top" in the S&P since our prognosis of a high of 1504.80 failed (1503.00 was high) With "BIG AL (not gore)" and the "Fed Boyz" meeting next week the likelihood of a rate increase is very slight. Shakeout that took place today may be just that and was a tad exaggerated due to thin volumes. August is notorious for making volatility shrink yet the threat of fast markets due to imbalances caused by lack of participation is more present than normal. This is why we look at DAYTRADES closer since we do not want option premiums to erode with no real action. Also trends started by fundamental news are more reliable as far as tracking Daytrade channels. Of course you could just take a Vacation Day and watch the PGA Tournament where ANYBODY can win. (FADE "The TIGER"). On to the TRADES.

NATURAL GAS-had a STRONG day up $1700 per contract. This, as mentioned on Monday when we said to buy at 4.2750, is a market that one must risk at least $350 even in a daytrade. Still see Monday's call as being "on the money" and for today BUY a dip to 4.3850 with a 3.3450 stop ($400)

SUGAR-very quiet yesterday which means there may be something up. The write up for
SUGAR on Monday needs adjustment for a DAYTRADE today. BUY a pullback to 1052 with a tight 1043 stop. Position traders click link above for recap.

SOY BEANS-showing some "life" this week and I would love to SELL a SEPT at 469 3/4
(which would be a 4 cent "gap" opening) and use the standard 3 cents stop at 472 1/2 (473 1/4 for the "Bigger spenders"). NOBODY likes PUTS (never much to get excited about) so I won't mention BUYING THEM.

08/16/00

"Dazed and confused for so long its not true". Just had to throw a Led Zep
line in somewhere. Looks to me like a DAYTRADING kinda Wens day. SO on to
the TRADES.

S&P-twice has hit the 1500.00 level and though this is one of the VERY FEW
markets that can post a "Quadruple Top" I will buy the "breakout" this morning by
entering with a 1499.00 BUY STOP. If filled take 5 points with an exit at 1504.75
and RE-BUY back at the SAME entry price. SELL STOP for protection should be
at 1496.25 risking $150 in a MINI (for the "BIG ONE" use 1497.80.

JYEN-on a "roll" overnight and is up 57 at this moment. BUY 9275 (just over highs)
on a stop and it should be a quick ride up to 9300

SILVER-weak weak and weaker but unable to fully collapse. BUY at 486 1/2 with
an 484 1/2 stop (risk $100 per trade) and exit at 492 1/2 for a three hundred dollar
return.

PORK BELLIES-have EXPANDED LIMITS and have dropped over 10 cents in
five days. Do I HEAR a BOUNCE. BUY at 70.00 OB (Or Better) with a 75 point
stop and try not to get too greedy if we catch the move. At $00 per penny (100
points) an exit at 72.40 would be sufficient.
"Dazed and confused for so long its not true". Just had to throw a Led Zep line in
somewhere. Looks to me like a DAYTRADING kinda Wens day. SO on to the
TRADES.

S&P-twice has hit the 1500.00 level and though this is one of the VERY FEW
markets that can post a "Quadruple Top" I will buy the "breakout" this morning by
entering with a 1499.00 BUY STOP. If filled take 5 points with an exit at
1504.75 and RE-BUY back at the SAME entry price. SELL STOP for
protection should be at 1496.25 risking $150 in a MINI (for the "BIG ONE" use
1497.80.

JYEN-on a "roll" overnight and is up 57 at this moment. BUY 9275 (just over
highs) on a stop and it should be a quick ride up to 9300

SILVER-weak weak and weaker but unable to fully collapse. BUY at 486 1/2
with an 484 1/2 stop (risk $100 per trade) and exit at 492 1/2 for a three
hundred dollar return.

PORK BELLIES-have EXPANDED LIMITS and have dropped over 10 cents
in five days. Do I HEAR a BOUNCE. BUY at 70.00 OB (Or Better) with a 75
point stop and try not to get too greedy if we catch the move. At $00 per penny
(100 points) an exit at 72.40 would be sufficient.

08/15/00

            Are you familiar with the "SQUEEZE PLAY" in Futures? Live example is
taking place in the Palladium market. Not that I ever recommend trading this metal
to Anyone (no volume and one real supplier) but now No One will trade it. Due to
supply shortages and heavy speculatory participation prices have more than doubled
over the past year and total Open Interest is 8x available stocks so in an effort to
"curb" this rampant speculation the Exchange has increased the Margin (dollar
amount you need in your account to hold one position overnight or longer) from the
normal $7,000. How much more?? what about $135,000 (NOT a typo), The
underlying commodity contract is only worth $85,000!!! ARISTOPHANES!!!!

CRUDE OIL-has everyone POSITIVE it is going higher Immediately. Sept
OPTIONS expire on Thursday and, as you know, Tonight the API report will
be released with enough info to move this "Black Gold" $1.50 or more.
Which way you ask? Well since EVERYBODY else is long that must leave me
BEARISH until the Gap at 29.12 is filled or 32.57 is reached. How "cheap" are
PUTS?? Get only one handful of 3050's for $160 each.

SWISS FRANC-looms just above CONTRACT LOWS (5783) which if
(when?) touched should result in a typical Double-Bottom Bounce to then possibly
fill the "Gap" at 59.85 (might as well say 60.00) where it then may twist and tumble
again. Rate increase in Tokyo certainly has had a negative effect on a currency that
has already been weakened by a sagging GOLD market. SHORT-TERM long
position is recommended if the price is right but don't stay in too long after the
Bounce.

08/14/00

      Looking forward to an exciting week in the Futures world as multiple
markets are at contract or all-time highs and lows. Stocks have posted
consecutive up or down days as "streakishness" has the trend. Reports
scheduled for this weeks release are as follows. Business Inventories today will
be down to +0.6% from +0.8% in MAY. Tomorrow Industrial Production (up
0.2% to 0.4%) and Capacity utilization (up 0.1%) should not affect much. CPI
(consumer Price Index) the sister to the PPI released Friday will also show a
decrease in inflation with a +0.2% forecast which is 0.4% LESS than last
month. Housing Starts are slated for disclosure and will be a little stronger than last
month's 1.55 mil at 1.58 mil. Jobless Claims for Thursday will be lower by
1,500. As promised the early part of the week will feature some IN DEPTH
look at the various markets I trade. So with out further ADIEU on to the
TRADES.

GRAINS-did not receive exceptionally Bullish news in the Crop Production
reports but and speck of info that could be used to drive up the Beans was
utilized. It may even be a hint of what may occur as the AUGUST contract
enters the final trading days (this is the last contract in "old crop") With a
WEATHER pattern forming over Texas and the Mid-west that is expected to
keep temps 100's till Friday we could see a three or four day SOY RALLY to
top off the summer. Premiums have picked up a bit since Friday's surge but 460
Sept calls still go for next to nothing. When this "Hype" ends be prepared to see
the beans down to $4.25. Nobody ever like to hear about down markets but
what can I say?. COTTON also may see another POP-UP but STOCKS and
PLANTINGS are also records and eventually this will weigh down the
market. SHORTING CALLS the PLAY.

SUGAR- is in the midst of approaching (5 years) highs on supply worries, Sept OPTIONS, which traded off of the OCT contract, expired on Friday
as the market retreated early in the morning only to rally up over 20 points. A very
strange bird this market. Only three MAJOR months in the standard contract year,
OCT, MARCH, and JULY (May gets a small note as does JAN) and seasonal
factors are limited to Hurricane threats in Aug and Sept and demand fluctuations
during world religious holidays (Ramadan fasting for example) or Budget problems in
Russia, the world's largest importer. Where are we going from here. Though
Fundamentally fueled the technicals are equally strong and there is little to point
toward anything but CONTINUED NEW HIGHS with the 12.50 area not
unattainable. Should we look farther in to the future and contemplate MARCH OPTIONS. Would rather own OCT contracts considering the MASSIVE TIME PREMIUM and SELLING PUTS now is risky  and “Juice less” since nobody really wants them. I would expect a “shake-out” early  Monday for all those “new” long positions (those who exercised in-the-money calls  Friday. SCALE DOWN BUYING to accumulate a Max of three positions for an  average $5,000 account  is advised 1057,1042, 1033 for OCT.

ENERGY COMPLEX-consists of CRUDE OIL, UNLEADED GASOLINE,
and HEATING OIL with and added market of NATURAL GAS for those with
REAL DEEP pockets. September will be the month discussed for all four which are
at or near CONTRACT HIGHS. Interesting plots abound here as GAPS”,
“retracements” and seasonal factors are key players in multiple trade set-ups. First
Crude Oil OPTIONS expire on Thursday and an API (American Institute of
Petroleum) report is released after the market closes on Tuesday. The braking of
contract highs on Friday ($31.85 vs 31.55) may be a BULLISH double top (but a
double top non the less) that will eventual be broken again but possibly not until the
“gap” is filled at $29.12. I at least expect a drop to the 33% retracment level which
is $30.45 and since they would be that close to $30.00 might as well take out some
stops before the big run up to $40 a barrel (I really hope not) SO while looking for
the drop in crude take advantage of the Weaker Unleaded verses the very strong
heat and BUY SEPT HO at approx 85.00 while SELLING SEPT HU at 91.00
or a 6.00 (read six CENT) difference. Finally with “Hurricanes a brewin’”NATURAL GAS needs no more incentive to reach unimaginable (at least in normal times) HIGHS at 5.0000 as contracts settled at 4.4750. This is an expensive market (if you went long at 4.4500 and sold at 4.9500 you collect $5000.  If you are wrong it goes QUICK in this invisible substance. If you must wait for a pull back to 4.2750 and risk less than a grand.

08/10/00

          In its simplest form, trading and market movement is "streakish". Identifying a three day trend on day two will (should) result in a profitable position. Markets are not the only element in trading that are subject to the basic "streak" rules. I myself spot different periods where I either "burn 'em up" or get "toasted". The owner of International Futures, Leonardo LoCricchio, often "FADES" my rec's when he sees me entering one of those "They Just Missed Me" phases especially when I am looking at the MINI contracts. Yesterday I felt the S&P would just "pop" over 1500.00 to get some stops and retreat back to the "gap" from the overnight. My sell spot was 1501.50. The BOSS (Len) prefers the "BIG BOY" (regular S&P at $250 a point) and sold at 1499.40. As you may have seen the high was 1499.50 and the My clients and I were left out in the cold. Oh well EVERYBODY has (or should develop) a system even if it is the "FADE THE GLASS" daytrading program. CAUTION- streak may have been snapped with the Crude OIL OPTION PLAY WHERE WE WERE BUYING A 2900 PUT FOR 26 THAT SETTLED AT 66 THE DAY BEFORE. PRICE OF OPTION HIT 25 ALLOWING US IN AND WE SHALL SEE HOW IT TURNS OUT. ON TO THE TRADES

With CROP PRODUCTION REPORT and other Economic data set for release Friday morning I will offer a DAYTRADING menu today.

mini S&P- is not finished with its current "Up Streak" and with the price up only 3 points a small pullback on the opening to the 1480.50 BUY level with a 1477.50 stop seems to be the play. This one MAY be ridden up to 1500.00 but expect a little resistance at the 1488.50 and 1495 areas.

COCOA-has indeed (as predicted) taken out CONTRACT LOWS and is tempting me to BUY at 738 with a tight 729 STOP in the hopes of seeing a 35 point retracement back to 777 (our exit).

COFFEE-for the bold only as contract LOWS were set yesterday and OPTIONS expire on Friday. 77.60 is the BUY with a 75.90 stop. This is a risk of over $500 and while Futures are RISKY (NO???) $500 in this market could be gone before you hang up the phone on your broker. If you survive the opening and are filled. DON'T GET GREEDY. Either EXIT at 79.90 or look to buy a 77.50 PUT for .60 (for 24 hours of "no worries" protection).

08/09/00

       It is a game of inches (or pennies) and a tough one at that. I tell about the
good ones so here's a bad one (clients what can I say). Bought my recommended
Sept $5.00 SILVER CALLs and with four days left tried to SELL of future contract
at 501 1/2 to take "both sides". Market did NOT comply and the overnight high
was $5.00 even. Needless to say (but I will) Silver then TANKED to new contract
lows. Will be facing a similar scenario in the SUGAR as we own the expiring 1100
CALLS and sugar is at 1070.Stay tuned. On to the TRADES.

CRUDE OIL-got some bullish numbers in the Tues night API report and will
again approach (and break) the $30.00 level. OPTIONS (SEPT) expire on the
17th (one week one day) and with supplies expected to be increased and eventually
show up in the monthly energy numbers PUTS could be a hot play. If Crude trades
up to 30.38 2900 puts may be had for 26 points $260 (settled at 66).

S&P-and its associates have been "streaking" (not the 70's version) and with 1500
looming on the horizon expect some profit taking when it is reached. For a "quick"
daytrade look to SELL mini S&P at 1501.50 and a second at 1502.75 with a
stop for both at 1505.50 risk approx $300.

SUGAR-may have a hard time busting through new highs until the options for
SEPT expire on Friday. On a DAYTRADE BUYING at the 1070 area with a
1059 stop and an exit at 1097. If LONG 1100 CALLS i see at least a 1104-6
level being a spot to lock in a dual position.

08/08/00          

Weather is constantly a factor that while basically a fundamental is quickly revealed to the technician. The Trick is to catch seasonal markets during "spikes" or "cleanouts" while they are vulnerable to fast price drops (SUGAR yesterday and LAST Monday show great examples). With the hurricane season nearing various markets can fall victim to sporadic weather driven moves. Natural Gas and Crude Oil SPIKE when there is tropical storm activity in the Gulf, repairs to homes due to hurricane damage boost the Lumber market, and occasionally Orange Groves suffer  uprootage. I is sad but true that disaster (or the threat) increase the volatility in these markets which make them more tradable. I won't root for devastation but I will speculate on it.On to the TRADES.

COTTON-rallied on "heat hype" 2 cents (200 points)braking the pivotal 60.00 number. With a CROP PRODUCTION report due FRIDAY and a chance for a gulf tropical storm (not AlbertO) to dump heavy moisture on parts (it is BIG) of Texas. Cotton is TOUGH and I have already puts some money on PUTS but on the heels of Monday's spurt up (even though there was no sell off) I say go for it one more time. Oct have a good amount of time combo of 58 and 56 should do it.

JYEN- naturally took a dive AFTER options expired on Friday. Said it was weak last week and with the recent reports pointing toward economic expansion I do not see the trend changing yet. I'll reconsider after 90.00 trades. (might be a few WEEKS) GREAT SELL spot is the Monday GAP at 92.86.

08/07/00

With the release of favorable Labor figures Friday and a continued belief that a
slowdown in the economy is well underway, stocks rose across the board last week
as fears of an additional interest rate hike on Aug 22nd (next FED meeting) are
disappearing. Multiple economic data forecasts for this week may confirm such
speculation and help fuel another rally this week. Consumer Credit will start things
off today with a DROP of $3.3 Bil to $8.5 bil. Tomorrow Productivity will be
closely watched and is slated to be +4.5% a big jump from the first quarter figures of
+2.4% and Unit Labor costs also are seen to be bullish, dipping to 0.5% from
1.6%. Wholesale inventories may be up slightly on Wed at +0.6% from +0.4%, and
Thursday's import prices will remain unchanged at +0.1%. Friday is the PPI
(Producer Price Index) which surprisingly will show a drastic drop from 0.6% to
0.1% BUT excluding FOOD and ENERGY the core rate will RISE .2%. Retail
Sales are off 0.1%. Friday is also the release of the Monthly USDA CROP
PRODUCTION report. More on that as the week progresses. On to the TRADES.

BRITISH POUND-trnds have been steadily downward and judging by the
"spike" on option expiration friday a bona fide double stop appears to be in at
1.5240. A return visit to 1.5000 would be a triple bottom and spell disaster. Long
time to go in the SEPT options so they are expensive (1.4900 at $1.00) A SHORT
position here (1.5088)for the week using a 60 point stop (BPOUND is $6.25
per point other currencies, Swiss and JYEN are $12.50 and the Canadian Dollar is
$10) Lighten up the position if up 100 points by WED.

SUGAR-already has had multiple reasons to make contract high each week
and now (though it is early in the season) warnings of ALBERT will
probably permeate the floor chatter( www.hurricane.net ). FIVE days left in SEPT
option and with the pullback on Friday taking some zip out of the premium a 10.00
(11 cent) CALL for 11 points is a deal.

SILVER-took a "nose dive" in the last half hour of trading on Friday setting
CONTRACT LOWS for the SEPT (492.50) Being the Counter Trend trader that I
am and with a week left in the SEPT options, AND with the PPI slated for release
on Friday I see the 500 CALLS for 3 cents ($150) as being an exceptional play
for this week.

08/04/00

Was a tad bit over zealous with my call for Armegedon yesterday in the Stock Market. Gose to show us once again that the market could care less what we think, it will do what it wants. Today's unemployment figure should keep 'em guessing for a good part of the morning.  Since it is Friday I will only list a few markets that have some potential trades upcoming. ON to the TRADES

GRAINS-have a key Crop Production report due next week and though the signs are all pointing down, the stubborn can still buck the trend with some inexpensive CALLS for Sept (two weeks till expiration) one good thing about this play is IF some strange unforeseen news emerges from the crop figures a FAST and STRONG move in the beans can take place.

SUGAR-seems to have no top and last friday we alerted you to a SELL reverse play. May see something like a mirror image of the chart pattern AGAIN. CAUTION selling the TOP when there is NO TOP is the most dangerous play in this game.

COFFEE-may have weather factors drive it up again next week. OPTIONS expire in SEVEN days and the 90.00 calls (worked last month) are the BUY at .75 cents.

08/03/00

Lesson learned yesterday is NEVER use "marlett" text to send your "oneglass"
(unless you include the special "decoder ring"). Fortunately yesterdays trades were
not of the earth shattering variety. For future reference the trades for the day are
"posted" on the WEB SITE (UN-coded version) for those with the PASSWORDS.
Lets go to the TRADES.
S&P-(should have sent this LAST NIGHT)the strongest of the Big Three (Nasdaq
and Dow) has formed a Classic text book BEAR FLAG the past three days (Big
drop followed by three successive days with a higher high and higher low).What
does this exactly mean??? SELL SELL SELL. I would say "pick your poison" since
you can never be sure than all three will follow suit but a SHORT position in the
MINI S&P at the 1450.00 level could see an aggressive exit price of 1424 (double
bottom support). NOTE S&P is already down 10 points look for sell inside the
"GAP" area.
JYEN-on a roll after touching 3 month lows early in the week. Up 40 points in over
night (9284) due mostly to weak stock market in ASIA. Since I feel that stocks
tumble here it is wise for me to abandon the short side and try to "catch the wave"
(see yesterday's commentary" BUY JYEN at 9281 with a 9269 stop. OPTIONS
are at that 24 hour area in the currencies inexpensive plays abound.

08/02/00

Ever have one of those days where you just can't "see" a trade. Depending on how many  markets you choose to analyze this is often the case when charts appear "range bound". A  small trick that works well in the currencies is to Buy or Sell breakouts based on the  overnight and first 10 min of trading ranges. Basically you will place STOPS to  ENTER the market just above/below the highs/ lows. This "catching of the wave" works   especially well in the JYEN and BPOUND. Watch for a few days and observe for yourself. It  may become another "tool" in your trading "Arsenal" On to the TRADES.

SOY BEANS-are drifting LOWER every day. For those who are attempting to pick
the bottom and buck a VERY STRONG trend I wish you luck and advise you to stick to the   SEPT CALLS which expire on the 18th (two weeks from Friday), are CHEAP, (3 cents for a  460)and will save you some cash when the CROP PRODUCTION report comes out on the  11th. I like a SELL today about 6 cents higher from settlement at 447 1/2 with a stop at 450  1/2 look for CONTRACT LOWS.

COFFEE- died in its non-frost covered tracks as the "freeze scare" seems all but forgotten.  Always like to "set-up" a trade in the coffee because it is so volatile at times and by BUYING  an 80.00 PUT SEPT for .50 ($187.50) and attempting to buy the FUTURE at  80.50 (CONTRACT LOWS) You would have a total risk of 1 cent ($375) and a shot for a  strong retracement . OPTION EXPIRES ON FRIDAY.

08/01/00

Perfect example of "the QUICK(smart) and the DEAD (greedy)" the short position in the S&P proved to be a 9 point winner within 30 min of trading. Those who took profits according to the "gap" or previous bottom had a good start to the week those who did not get out while the going was good. OH WELL maybe NEXT TIME!. Even though it seemed that a bigger fall was due I believe that the start of the Republican Convention had something to to with the "retracement rally". Today (really tomorrow cause this is a "Night Glass") would expect to see alot of uncertainty and until the early morning reports (Personal Income,Consumption, and Pur Mgr Idx) are digested the only element I foresee is to SHORT the S&P at the Triple Bottom which would form if 1427.50 trades again. On to the TRADES:

SUGAR-hit 1093 CONTRACT HIGH on Friday, the same day I said it would trade up to
1094 and then GAP LOWER on MONDAY. Well Gosh Darn if my crystal ball was not right on. Sugar gapped 19 lower before it COLLAPSED 49 points to settle at 1040. Time to BUY CALLS??? well the are still expensive (OCT 1100 for 40 points $450) since the volatility has not left the market but the SEPT 1100 for 10 points ($112)that expires in 9 trading days is a worthwhile venture.

JYEN-is in a holding pattern even though a change in Banking ministers due to embezzlement was recently completed. Still time for a market with no apparent bottom until 90.00 on the PUTS from Friday (9100 AUG). Could probably add to that position with a few 9150 PUTS for about 15 points. Options in the YEN and other currencies EXPIRE FRIDAY.