SEPT

SEPTEMBER

09/28/00

Server problems forced me to use a back-up E-mail program that lacks the sophistication (and capacity) that I am accustom to and thus wreaked havoc with its publication and delivery. Trust me HEADS WILL ROLL!!!
Trading tip day consists of one of my favorites-the "AUTO TRADE". It is named such because (if you have done your homework and set proper risk and return objectives) once placed it need not be attended to again. The main aspect is the OCO (Order Cancels Order) and though many brokers (and exchanges) refuse to take them (too much work) a few commodities still permit them. Using the currencies as an example (they take them) we "get LONG JYEN at 9422. The following order is then placed. SELL JYEN at 9454 OCO 9399 STOP OCO MOC. What this means is that we want to take profits if 9454 is hit (which will then AUTOmatically cancel the
stop) if we are stopped out at 9399 the limit is canceled and if the market does not hit either of our targets then we will exit our daytrade at the market on the close (MOC-Market On Close) this form of trading not only helps you stick with you "game plan" but just in case things get hectic in other areas you will not be "Stuck"
in the market overnight. On to the TRADES.

COCOA-hit a double bottom low of 777 (prev 776) and a "bounce" up to 811 is in order. BUY DEC at 779 (4 points below settlement) with a tight stop at 768 (4110 risk) Trend is down an 838 is "super resistance" so look for SELLING opportunities if it jumps 50 points this week.

ENERGY MARKETS- closed mixed Wednesday (heating Oil strongest Unleaded Weakest) , after the recent steep declines due to the news President Clinton will open up some of the U.S. reserves. Nov. crude is closing in on $30 per barrel and may dip there before any additional rallies. It's still too soon to call a top in this market, even though odds have now shifted in that direction. These markets have been brutal to traders especially those trying to pick a top which is why I love the options plays. Almost time to BUY another HEATING OIL BULL CALL SPREAD. Even a DEC 105 call LONG verses a SHORT 115 (risk about 1 cent $420) could max out at a $3600 profit. Floor does not "give" these spreads away, your broker (or YOU) must
"work this order"

09/27/00

Will do a DAYTRADE SPECIAL

CRUDE OIL-has a "GAP" at 32.50 where I would be a SELLER (32.38 with a 32.66 stop) and SELL on a STOP at 31.10 to test the bottom at 29.88.

SUGAR-BUY 9.42 with a 9.28 stop re-read yesterday's "Glass"

DOW JONES-is up 40 and I always like the "trend trade" BUY when up 50 (10,785) and ride to 10,940 and on a SELL STOP (to go short) triple bottom at 10,710 could
be ridden down to 10,565 (long way down)

SOY BEAN-have a "comfortible range" in NOV between $5.00 and 4.90 which could be used for several trades. Risk 3 cents and exit with 6 do it twice(including
REVERSES) and it is a decent day.

09/26/00

SUGAR-is prompting me to go out on a limb and state that in two days or less the OCT contract (LAST TRADING DAY FRIDAY) will BREAK 10 CENTS (10.12 if this was an exact science) and then DROP LIKE A ROCK. At least the MARCH will. The PLAY?? Tough daytrading with the delivery people so BUY MARCH on a 9.52 STOP at the open If this market soars by days end (I still think 2 days) get ready to BUY the JAN 950 and
900 PUTS.

09/25/00

Economic data released this week as well as earnings reports may take a back seat to the plunging energy market and the crippled EURO. Existing Homes Sales start things off today with a .06 million increase in last month's figure. Consumer confidence for Sept will be relatively UNCH on Tuesday and many eyes will be on the API (American Institute of Petroleum) report which comes out after the close. August Durable goods figures are Bullish if the Wed projections hold +2.5% from -12.4% in July and Second quarter GDP numbers are unchanged. Friday Personal consumption and Income may also reflect little change. So lets see how the last week of the third
quarter goes. On to the TRADES.

HEATING OIL-and its associates (Crude and Unleaded) are taking another pounding in the overnight ( down 213,135, and 220 respectively) and I am waiting for those who Bought PUTS on THURSDAY (as per our REC) to start sending thanks. Is it time to BUY YET??? according to the charts Yes for crude but NO for HEAT . Thing is that since all this hype is basically about the release of 30 million barrels of OIL from the Stock and that represents TWO DAYS of consumption I do not think that this market is finished. Could wait till Tuesday to start BUYING for the winter but a short term play presents itself today. Nobody want CALLS that expire tomorrow except me. Hard toguage where this market will open but the fact is that CALLS (for OCT heat
and gas)(again which expire tuesday BEFORE the API report) will BE CHEAP.

JYEN-has sat on the sideline quietly while Europe, the US, and Great Britain have taken the spotlight with interventions. Up 44 points at 9432 the DEC YEN is a BUY with a stop at 9419 (risk less than $175) OPTIONS have two weeks to go and this is usually a SELLERS time.

SILVER and GOLD-showed some life last week and I still see a week or so of "panic" down the road and recommend CALLS for both at distant strikes and months ( DEC GOLD 290 calls and SILVER 525) Not a large cost and do not forget last year's "GOLD RUSH"

09/22/00

KA-BOOM!! Yes, that will be the sound of the stock market opening this morning as Intel's post market earnings projections have dragged the NASDAQ to LIMIT DOWN (92 points) already (DOW is off 165 and S&P a mere 22 points) Could be a VERY UGLY day for BULLS. Intervention on behalf of Europe has SWISS and EURO soaring. GRAIN options for OCT expire today and a LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTER report will be released. Now since I made a DECENT call in the ENERGIES yesterday, and told everyone NOT TO BE LONG the S&P below 1470 (on Weds) AND watch SUGAR drop to 859 (down only 80 since that Monday writing) I see no reason to say anything more for the week. CHECK OUT these past prognostications for yourself at my web site below.

09/21/00

Watched the NEXT PRESIDENT of the U.S. address the Hispanic caucus (speaking in Both English and Spanish), afterwards "LA BAMBA" and "GOOD LOVE'" were cranked out. He has the Woman's vote as well as minorities so the rest of us don't matter. YES, it is a MORTAL LOCK that AL GORE will win THE November election. This is not a plug, just another non commodity call by the "GLASS" ( long time followers know I AM 3-0). So call those British Bookies and see if "the NEXT BIGGEST AL" (Greenspan is still MY man) is still less than 3 to1 ( for you futures traders that is a 60 point stop in the NASDAQ and you exit with a 20 point profit) Take the "MONET" and RUN. Enough humor, ON TO THE TRADES.

ENERGIES-are all the "average Jose'" can talk about and everybody sees $40 crude. These are very tricky markets and it almost seems TOO EASY for this to race to the stars without having a good old-fashion "cleanout" and this market can clean. How low must it go before a continued assault to the stratosphere? Well OCT HEAT settled at $1.0180 and OCT CRUDE at $37.20 and near by fractals are at 98.05 and 33.15. I see at least the fractal being touched in heat (it has a "gap"all the way down at 89.86) and CRUDE dropping to below $35.00. Your choice is PUTS now or "stash the cash" till the dip and BUY AN OIL FIELD (or at least a small truck full of calls)

COTTON-at 63.14 and no more major threat of "heat waves"
at test of the next support level ( 61.90) is on the menu. There is a high probability that this market can tumble down to the 60 cent area and below. Not much time in the options But a SELL at 63.45 with a very tight stop at 63.80 is my call.

09/20/00
Just like most things we do in life, When one OVER-THINKS (analyzes) something the result is usually not favorable. There are often Too Many variables that yield conflicting signals and thus confuse and cloud the trading picture. Do I SELL at the 33% retracment number or play the triple top for a big breakout. Reversing is one of the most difficult moves to make and can leave you "smacking" yourself for not riding the original side farther. Take heart because it will not only
happen regularly nut it is an inevitable aspect all trading. I have yet to see anyone with nothing but winning trades, I can't happen. What a trader can do is use TIGHT STOPS and keep the losers SMALL. On to the TRADES.

S&P-is experiencing a average daily range of 15 points (even in a mini that's $750) while setting up some good daytrading numbers in the form of retracements and S&R (support/resist)whle the 1461.00 bottom is in the "ceiling" may be 1495.00. Today? More like Thursday up the upside should be tested again. If trading electronically on your own keep in mind that using a tight (3 points or less[REALLY!!}) Stop and taking 5-7 points ($250-350) you stand a better than average chance of booking profits each day (There are simply more 5 point moves than 15 point moves to find). If you "hit" on your first few trades it is prudent to "double up" and get a little more
aggressive, BUT if you lose the first two trades CALL IT A DAY (or at least exit the building)! This is a STREAK business and YOU are no exception to that rule( neither am I but I learned the hard way- EXPERIENCED IT!!!) OK how about a TRADE. BUY a dip to 1475.25 (lower opening with an upside "gap" to fill would make it even better) with a stop at 1472.75. If price is below 1470 when you receive this DO NOT GO LONG.

SUGAR-has retraced just about 33% but the trick here (and I wish I was back in the "pit" for this) is weather to SELL im front of the 10.00 level (where already there are a number of orders in, I imagine) or wait for the "classic cleanout" up to 1011 where MOST STOPS for those shorts are. I lean toward the former since I think everybody has it in their heads that this market is "toast". SELL 9.97 with a stop at 10.13 risking 16 points (about $200)

SOY BEANS-has three days left in the OCT option and for 2 cents $100 each) 480 PUTS can set up several trade scenarios the next few days. BUY THEM and on the first dip below 480 cover one with a long future and "play" that contract to cover the cost of the options. You might find that you can get two or three trades off (winners, of course) and still own both puts for when the market settles at 475 on Friday.

09/19/00

September has been historically the weakest month for the stock market and thus far this is the WORST sept in decades. Is the SHORT term drop over. Stated last week that 1461.00 was a fractal target for the expired Sept but it looks like the DEC wants to go to 1447.80 which means one more down day (at least). On to the TRADES.

I am BULLISH
HEATING OIL-OPTION CALL SPREADS only way to play this for Winter.
GOLD-the "I" word will start appearing more often, be prepared
WHEAT-will not suffer the collapse Beans and corn will have at harvest.
I am BEARISH
SUGAR-ralling time is over back to 8.50 may test 10.03 first
MEATS-demand down, supply up, Trade is selling.
COCOA-too much of a Luxury item with heavy supplies availible-742 target.
BEANS-would SHORT $4.90 for a shot at $4.50 in two weeks.

09/18/00

Relatively "silent" week report wise in comparison to what took place over the last five trading days. Outside of HOUSING STARTS on Tues., COLD STORAGE on Wed, and LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTER on Fri., only the Thur, TREASURY BUDGET report and a smattering of earnings projection are forthcoming. So this may be a great time for a trading tip or two. Remember, it's a proven fact that most people lose money in commodities (and in Casinos and on Football). The funny thing is that the main reason is NOT the cost of commissions. It is usually because they put on losing trades (DUH, Michel!). For example, if you MAKE $500 on a trade, what difference does it make if you paid $20 or $50 in commissions? What if you LOSE $500? Does $30 make or break you?? I am amazed (and that does not often happen) that so many people (especially brand new traders) utilize "discount" services, believing that they are saving money. Full service professional advice (in the form of CTAs and MANAGED PROGRAMS) is available for a small additional cost, and can be worth many times the price. Needless to say ( but I must) "professionals" past performances are no indication that they will continue to profits. But, for example, if you needed to see a dentist, would you "clip a coupon" for someone who advertised, "I'll drill any tooth for $10?" Or if you were arrested for a crime you didn't commit, would you hire a lawyer who said, "I'll take your case $50?" When you hire any other professional, your first question is NOT, "How CHEAP are you?" It's always, "How GOOD are you?" CALLING 877-849-4685 ex 211 will provide you with all the information you need 'NUFF SAID!!! On to the TRADES!!!

ORANGE JUICE-may experience a drastic "pop up" due to the STORM ripping through Florida (said to "GET IN" on FRIDAY) but this mat be a bit over done. Damages are often over exaggerated early and SHORTING the "GAP" (if it occurs) may be risky (OK MORE risky) but could yield a quick profit. OPENING CALL (your broker can provide that) is KEY!!

SUGAR-did what was expected if if broke 1030 (which was DUMP 58 points) and took out
STOPS well below 10.00 ( 9.65 low in OCT) Will it BOUNCE?? Fractals (Boy they are
GOOD) says NO! Next level to test, (don't say I'm crazy) is 8.59. Normally I would be on the long side in a counter trend trade but in this case the trend has been up and DOWN is the counter. GO WITH IT!!

SOY BEANS-rapidly heading back to being equal to one pack of cigarettes per bushel (its
$4.50 in NYC per pack) and no one likes to hear that, but I have said it since last Monday (closing price for NOV was $5.05 1/2) and even with a Friday settlement of 483 1/4, BEANS ARE OVERPRICED. Look for continued weakness and a possible test of the next fractal at $4.63. OCT OPTION expire on Friday and a 480 PUT for 3 cents may be worth a play.

09/15/00

Stock and Oil options expire and volatility will dominate the day. Quite a
number of reports still due to be released today and since it is a Friday we will
concentrate on DAYTRADING.

COCOA-is continuing its slide and a SELL at 822 with an 831 stop and exit od
801 should produce a tidy profit in the DEC.

ORANGE JUICE- has OCT options expiring today and a COLD STORAGE
report due next WED. While there seems to be an abundance of oranges two plays
jump off the page. On a SPREAD BUY JAN SELL MARCH with at least a 2.50
premium. This trade will take MONTHS to run it course but any hint of early
FROST will send the JAN running. ALSO an OPTION SPREAD using the NOV
verses the JAN. SELL TWO (2) NOV 7500 CALLS for 2.00 and BUY ONE JAN
7500 for 3.50 net cost 1.50 cents or $225.

LEAN HOG-hit our SELL price yesterday and will stick with the down side and
SHORT at 54.77 with a stop at 55.20 each point is worth $4.

S&P-may be mixed all day but like a LONG in DEC at 1500.20 with a TIGHT
stop at 1497.75. Look to retest the 1515.00 level

09/14/00

Many markets with extreme ups and downs here in the "colonies" but things are better here than in "Mother England" where IF you could find a Gasoline station with fuel it would cost you $5.00 a gallon!!! At least we are not in any inflationary times. Action packed 24 hours is here as TRIPLE WITCHING is upon us. MARKET SHOULD MOVE UP. On to the TRADES.

SOY BEANS-giving back their gains slowly but surely and I have to laugh when I look at this weeks WSJ where MONDAY they "predicted" a possible LIMIT UP move (the even thought the limit was 50 cents instead of 30) based on the USDA report and TODAY they are touting "RECORD HARVEST". Guess the picked up an old "oneglass" since we have mentioned that there would be around 3 BILLION BUSHELS of "new" BEANS (we are off since there may only be 2.94 BILL. Look for a "slight pop" over $5.00 and SELL the NOV with a stop at 505 1/2 and an objective of 490 1/4. The BOLD may SELL NOV 525 CALLS for 6 cents.

LEAN HOG-touched its "gap" area (on the UP side) and now is prepared to retest its bottom for the THIRD TIME and should not bounce again until 50.00 cents is reached. DAYTRADERS should SELL at 54.45 with a 55.10 stop and OPTION Players can get the OCT 5200 PUTS for less than one cent (100=$400).

COCOA-hit 840 on the close and with no more pressure from deliveries in the SEPT contract I see another run down to the mid 750's. NOV PUTS 800 for 8 points ($80) or SHORT at 844 with an 853 stop are the two ways to go.

09/13/00

Triple Witching, and event that takes place four times each year is now
upon us. It is the time when the Stock options and Indexes expire and portfolio
managers add "window dressing" to their holdings. The OPTIONS for the S&P
stop trading at 4:15 on Thursday BUT the settlement price is not calculated until
the opening bell Friday morning based on the cash price of each of the 500
components. This means you could BUY a CALL at strike 1490.00 and though
the market closes at 1489.00 Thursday you may find yourself in-the-money Friday
morning (no need to do anything as the position will be "cash settled". So On to the
TRADES.

S&P-has made its predicted drop prior to option expiration and this is the time to
"ride " this market back up. Dec is the daytrading month but for options we will use
SEPT numbers (1481.90 settlement), 1495 CALL for 3 points (mini =$150 BIG
one $750) could be a fine speculative move this morning.

SILVER and GOLD-have all but put everyone to sleep but the hibernation could be
over with the release of Tomorrow's PPI (Producer Price Index) report. Spotted
the word "Inflation" no less than six times in the "Journal" and it just may be a
matter of time before these two metals come back into fashion. 6 cents $300, for
NOV SILVER 500 calls and a mere $250 for DEC GOLD 290 CALLS may bring
an quick an unexpected windfall.

QUICK NOTES
JYEN-slumping but support at 9326 THE BUY AREA.
BEANS-kept from collapsing but I'm still BEARISH!!!
SUGAR- " " " " " " BULLISH!!!
NASDAQ-is a BUY at 3711.00 in the DEC with a 12 point stop (risk $240 in a
mini.

09/12/00
Thought I would give everyone a head start on the analysis of the CROP PRODUCTION REPORTS. Well they are not released until 8:30 a.m. est but you can "brush up" on the format and read THE REPORTS yourself (good link to book mark, heavy traffic at report time). Another good spot to visit is the COMMITMENT of TRADERS where every other Friday at 3:30 (soon to be weekly) Tuesdays open interest broken down into Speculators (or better known as the "little guys") and Trade (Commercials) with weekly % changes are posted for the perusal of the
public. It is a very good way to "Follow-the-MONEY". These are a few tools that can assist in evaluating the markets from a FUNDAMENTAL prospective. Do not misinterpret me into thinking that all the doors to successful trading can be opened with just analysis of these figures. Many are viewing the same numbers and "crunching" them in their own way. Such is one reason I am a TECHNICIAN and prefer not to over analyze or "GUESS" about reports. Funny thing, IF
EVERYBODY thinks SOMETHING will occur (perhaps a BULLISH BEAN REPORT) and
NOTHING HAPPENS (NEUTRAL) a BIG MOVE (SELL OFF) could be the ensuing result
(also why I LOVE OPTIONS). SO since we will not speculate on the morning reports
(AGRICULTURAL MARKETS) markets are limited in TODAY'S TRADES.

SUGAR-has given many analysts a SELL signal (commercials short 20,000 verses SPECS) but I DO NOT AGREE, at least not until the 10.29 FRACTAL is broken which will trigger a domino effect (as well as a TON of STOPS) all the way down to 9.92 (where it will "bounce" back to 1024 and sell off again). AGAIN I DO NOT see this scenario playing out. Instead, with the OCT options having expired (in which most had CALLS) and a RECORD open interest in PUTS (MAR) out there only one direction seems logical to me (note-logic rarely works) and that is UP TO NEW
CONTRACT HIGHS. Jan CALLS are reasonable.

CRUDE OIL-may have "left the building" as the "RUMOR" of increased production was fine for a drop on Friday but the "NEWS" after the meeting was enough to send OCT to CONTRACT HIGHS of $35.85. With an API report out tonight and OCT options expiring on FRIDAY the only Logical trade (TWICE in one day?) to make would be on the SHORT SIDE ("Juice" in the CALLS is ridiculous and a retracement or Bearish report is possible) PUTS at STRIKE 3400 the best value at $270 (27 points)

09/11/00

Will be one of the busiest week's in a while in the Futures markets. First part of the week will have its focus on USDA CROP PRODUCTION reports (TUES) as well as the API (American Petroleum Institute) which will give some indication as to the impact of the OPEC production increases. Economic numbers begin on WEDNESDAY with the Account Deficit expected to Increase to -108.0 bil. verses -102.3 previously. Producer Prices (PPI) was unchanged last month and is slated to be +0.2%. Retail sales also will be released that day and will be +0.2% DOWN from last months +0.7%. Try not to forget that Thursday is also the OPTION EXPIRATION day for the INDEXES (closing price is determined on FRIDAY MORNING) . Consumer Prices (CPI) is out Friday (unchanged) and Business Inventories ,+0.6%, Industrial Production,+0.1%, and Capacity Utilization,+0.1% Finish off the week. On to the TRADES.

COPPER-has taken its sweet time breaking the 90.00 cent level, which it has not seen in dozens of months, and while the long term outlook is pointing toward $1.00, the short term play is the retracement to below 90.00. OCT options, expiring on the 26th, are the instrument that should be utilized. BUY the 90 PUTS for 1 cent (100 points or $250) and keep an eye on the LONGER term DEC CALLS as the price dips this week.

SOY BEANS-will have their "big" day Tuesday as analysts throughout the market have said that estimates of CROP SIZE may be heavily downgraded. One gentlemen was quoted in the WSJ as stating that Beans may go LIMIT UP (the writer said LIMIT is 50 cents when it is really 30 CENTS call them up) So with all this "HYPE" I still LIKE PUTS. You take it from there.

09/08/00

Action seems to be picking up again as everyone is putting the summer
behind them. Reports,reports,reports are on the trading menu for the neat
week. PPI (producer price Index),an inflation gauge, is due on Thursday
along with Retail sales and TRIPLE WITCHING!!! Wholesale Trade,USDA
CROP PRODUCTION, and WORLD PRODUCTION figures come out on
Mon,Tues,Wed throw in more reports next Friday than I can list and throw in
A FULL MOON on the 13th and currency options expiring today and
VOLIA'. COMMODITIES AT THEIR BEST. Bonne Chance' pour du
Monde! On to the TRADES.

S&P-will be highlighted as the option expiration draws near as the technicals point-DOWN! Which ones?? High on Monday was 1534.00 and Weds low 1494.00 (40 points) Retracements (or "BOUNCES") are usually 33% (at least in MY book) and that would mean 1507.20 would be the TOP(40 x .33 = 13.20), HEY look at yesterdays HIGH 1507.50 (well this isn't an EXACT science) Second technical (or really historical) is the last time the S&P had three downs days followed by an UP (this was Mid-July) it dropped for SIX STRAIGHT DAYS (almost 100 points) Finally The FRACTAL LOW of 1495.00 was broken next one is 1461.00 MAYBE we should look at the PUTS a little closer

SOY BEANS-were not able to mount ANY rally after a 16 cent collapse on Wed. See only bad things for the grains and doubt that the upcoming data will show anything but a RECORD CROP on the way. OCT OPTIONS (which trade off the NOV contract) expire on the 22nd (two weeks) and though I hate to BUY on a Friday (we lose "time value" over the weekend) I feel the 480 PUTS for 3 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents each (4 cents is $200) are a solid play. Remember Futures positions carried through reports like next week's can result in BIG LOSSES if one GUESSES WRONG. Stick with options (even calls) and avoid getting "toasted".

09/07/00

New York is "buzzing" with foreign dignitaries as "gridlock and bomb scares" rule (aren't YOU glad you don't live HERE!) Anyway the Stock Market did continue its slide as the S&P touched its fractal LOW of 1495.00 (actually BROKE it with a BEARISH 1493.00) and has "bounced" in the overnight and, as yesterday's E-Letter pointed out, the down turn (before the "up-run") prior to Triple Witching seems in process. Would SELL 1501.50 and look to not only fill the "overnight gap" but test at least 1488.50. On to the TRADES.

CURRENCY-options expire on Friday and the JYEN has caught my attention as a BUY. 95.00seems to be a likely settlement but then fractals (again) tell me that 96.00 has a high probability. Onany minor dip the SEPT 9500 and 9550 calls should be picked up, preferably after NOON.

SOY BEANS-have left a few notable technical signals. With a "gap" opening lower yesterday (which ended with this legume down over 16 cents) an ISLAND TOP has formed (gap higher followed by gap lower) and now an earlier "gap" could be the target (480 1/4 in NOV) which then has still ANOTHER gap down at 471. Of course the OTHER school of thought says that the Beans HAD to drop for retracement and cleanout purposes alone. Case can be made now that $5,00 has been retested its up, up, and away. I SAY NO and lean toward the PUTS or a SELL at 4.99 1/2 with a 503
1/2 stop (NOV for daytrade OCT for options.

09/06/00

Stock market is approaching one of "those" times of the year, TRIPLE WITCHING, which begins with the expiration of the SEPT Index Options. An interesting past note is that the market has tended to trend down for three or four days before staggering a rally the two or three days BEFORE TW (trip wit) Was Tues decline DAY ONE??? I will be DAYTRADING from the SHORT side today and only time will tell. On to the TRADES.

CORN-hit a high just the $2 level before profit taking ahead of the close Late yesterday afternoon's crop conditions report showed 66% of the corn crop is
rated good/excellent, which is down from last week's rating. Hot and dry weather across the Midwest helped seems to have helped speed up crop maturity, as further deterioration from this point on appears limited. At the money PUTS (strike 200) for the DEC contract ahead of the September Crop Production report (TUES 9/12).may be a wise move.

COCOA-has moved up now that all the SEPT calls have expired worthless. Imagine that some delivery pressure is leaking in and the 800 level in SEPT should trigger some selling. Daytrade the DEC SHORT at 838 with an 852 stop.

NATURAL GAS-may be a SELL at 5.0900 after setting a new record high for a second consecutive session.
CRUDE OIL-output from OPEC in August was 29.02 million barrels per day, up 780,000 from a revised July figure of 28.24 million BUY PUTS when $35.00 trades.
HEATING OIL-will remain the strongest of the ENERGIES whether they move up or down. Long here with SHORT UNLEADED GAS as spread has re-corrected.AGAIN.

09/05/00

Summer must be over since the are school buses everywhere, the Temp
dropped below 60 degrees, and there is nothing but Presidential Election Rhetoric
abounding on the media. Are YOU ready to trade up a STORM. Not me, since
I feel a day to evaluate all the activity of last week is needed. To quickly RECAP.
SOY BEANS soared over the $5.00 level and are mounting a pre-harvest rally.
The energies are switching leaders each day as Heating oil Dominated the early
part of the week and Unleaded Gas made some strong headway at the end (time
for CRUDE today?). Sugar is poised near its contract highs and GOLD and
SILVER have shown unusual Strength. On to the Trades.

CORN and WHEAT-tested 10 year lows recently and ONLY the upward
momentum of the Soy Bean has kept these two afloat. If the beans weaken we
could see a BIG drop in both of these unrelated grains. I know the down side
never gets anybody's blood flowing but what can I say.

SUGAR-mentioned every other day here cause it has shown some classic
technicals. Beside the factors I have mention last week I saw another
indicator Friday. On August 31, 2000, the New York Board of Trade
(NYBOT) reported a new open interest record of 124,578 Sugar option
puts, eclipsing the previous open interest mark of 124,530 on August 30,
2000. Well since SO MANY want PUTS it ,makes me feel this Sugar is going
HIGHER than even I thought. Stay Tuned and if not long yet BUY 1083
STOP

CRUDE OIL-is on its way to $40, at least that is a reasonable target given the
increase in Future speculation for the related products and the inability of OPEC to
increase its production adequately. API report is released tonight (its Tuesday,
remember?) and CALLS if they are not overpriced on the opening are the PLAY.