OCTOBER

10/31/00

Halloween today may not be a scary as election day next week. Stock market mixed bag on Monday reveals the weakness in the techs. Any bearishness in the DOW will send the NASDAQ past 3000. On to the TRADES.

SUGAR-retracing a four day down binge has to have some resistance at the 10 cent level. Look, on a daytrade, to SELL 998 with a modest 10.12 stop. JAN 900 puts for 10 points are also recomended.

WHEAT-at 2.55 1/2 is almost "no man's land" in that before it goes UP it must test the 2.50 area. Take a shot on a daytrade SELLING at 256 3/4 with a 260 1/2 stop and a $300 profit objective at 250 3/4.

COCOA-hit CONTRACT LOWS (as predicted) and now if 747 is breeched you can go long (at 744 today) with an objective of 787 and a 734 stop. It was not touched yesterday so remains a play

10/30/00

City in YANKEE mania Mode as the Canyon of Heroes is already packed.
Stock Market a little "soft" overnight but look for the Pre Parade rally to fill
the "GAP". Full week of data out starting with Personal Income and Consumption
due today at +0.5% and +0.6%.
Consumer Confidence on Tues will be down 1.9 to 140.0 and Chic. PMI (purchasing
managers index) is also soft at 50.0 from 51.4. Wed NAPM index is off .4 to 49.5
and construction spending is also down 1.0% (I see a trend already) Thurs Leading
Indicators are at 0.0% up from -0.1%Inital Jobless claims up 3,000 Non-farm
Productivity at +3.0% down from +5.7% and Unit Labor costs will be up to 1.9%
from a previous -0.4%. Finally Unemployment rate inches up to 4.0% from 3.9%
and Factory orders are off 1.0%. Currency OPTIONS expire on Friday as does
Cocoa and Live Cattle. On to the TRADES.
HEATING OIL-and the rest of the energy complex had a tumble on Friday due to
the projected increase in production from OPEC due to start today, BUT with
IRAQ contemplating switching to the EURO for pricing (and possibly halting over
2 million barrels a day) and a COLD SPELL (maybe SNOW) on the East Coast I
see RALLY on the horizon. If you have and ACCOUNT we can get started this
week.

SWISS AND YEN-both will have "action" this week and by carefully playing the
short term options we can position ourselves for multiple trades for the rest of
the week.

COCOA-hit CONTRACT LOWS (as predicted) and now if 747 is touched you can
go long with an objective of 787.

10/26/00

W.S. takin' a toll on N.Y.C. STILL say there will be a game SEVEN!!!

COTTON-by breaking the long time 62.15 fractal it signaled its decent to 60 cents (and below?). Bearish Double Top formed from Monday's and Yesterday's highs and almost nonexistent range of 35 points means stops have accumulated on both sides. Prudent trader will look to see opening range before diving in. Since I do not have that luxury (right now) I would place a SHORT SELL STOP at 63.10 IF the market opens Higher (settlement was 63.26 for the DEC contract). If market opens Down 30 to 50 points place SELL limit at 62.95 with a STOP REVERSAL at 63.45. Best OPTION for the DEC is the 60.00 PUTS both value and potential.

ORANGE JUICE-to be simple has been horrible, with "dead" days, viscous clean outs, and weeks without really going anywhere. I am usually not one to attempt to call for a Bottom and in this case while a clear "spike" appears on the chart possibly signaling a turn around I will stick to my guns. Trying to "catch" the Bottom (or Top) of a market usually results in a LOSS. WHY? Again, Simply put Who are You to think that a market that has continually fallen over the past year,is now FINALLY at the bottom. Remember when you "BET" against the streak you can only WIN ONCE verses possible multiple losses (like the 80 cent bottom in juice six months ago!!!) and though it is tempting to go long into the winter months I would NOT take an outright position. If you wish to "play it safe" (see definition of "risk") a CALENDAR SPREAD with LONG JAN SHORT MAR (3.00 differential) may allow you to capitalize on a strong rebound with a small margin.

10/25/00

Another day, another DAY "GLASS".

PORK BELLIES-had a limit up move on Monday and half as much of a drop yesterday. Trendline touched is bearish. SELL FEB at 61.55 with a 62.10 stop and a 58.70 target for today.  

JYEN-no where as weak as the rest of the world currencies and a BUY at 93.33 with a tight stop at 93.18 should provide profit.

COCOA-with a stout rally has hit my SELL area of 811 stop at 823 exit at 779

10/24/00

I love writing the "glass" but who really reads it???. On to the (DAY) TRADES.

SUGAR-failed to fill the "gap" at 10.46-will today. Short at 10.79 with a 10.86 stop exit at
10.57 and go LONG at 10.47.

SWISS FRANC-is as weak as it gets but a rally to 56.33 is the IDEAL spot to go
SHORT with a stop at 56.46. Look for NEW LOWS.

COFFEE-with a big drop yesterday sets up a BUY at 76.20 with a stop at 74.70 and a
target of 79.40.

10/23/00

       It has been said that if the YANKEES win the Stock Market will rise (one reason is that the Yanks are synonymous with the US) so things are looking up for equity investors. This week does not have an abundance of data slated to be released but some numbers later on may have varied affects. Weds Existing Home Sales is expected to be down .22 mil at 5.05 mil. and Thurs Initial Jobless claims is virtually unchanged from 307,000 to 310,000. Durable Goods Orders on Friday may reveal an underlying weakness since they may come in at -0.2% off from +2.9% and Advanced GDP will also be soft at +3.5% from a previous +5.6%. Options for the Stock Indexes (Oct) expired on Friday and those who picked up CALLS on the early weeks dip saw a very nice return by the close. On to the TRADES.

HEATING OIL-still a long term BUY will possibly have a correction this week as the NOV option expires on Thursday. PUTS for the short term are the play. If the NOV contract can reach 98.50 (settled at 97.10 the 96.00 PUTS for 50 points ($210) are worth a shot with the API due out tomorrow night.

COCOA-showed its true colors dropping again like a rock on Friday (down 28 points)
SELLING a slight rally is the DAYTRADE and 803 with a stop at 812 (risk $90) is today's play.

SOY BEANS-options for NOV expired on Friday and now seemed poised to head toward $4.50 a bushel. Settlement was 4.68 1/4 for NOV so look to SHORT at 470 1/2 with a stop at 473 1/4. Target for short term is 4.61.

10/18/00

     NEW YORK, NEW YORK, they love us or they hate us but one thing is for sure, WE WIN the World Series this year. The Pride and Power of the YANKEES verses the Destiny of the upstart METROPOLITANS. Your best friend today in this city is not the guy with the hot stock tip but the one with TICKETS (any extras out there give me a call). Stock Market may feel a bit of exuberance itself since the NYC battle will help everything from TV ads to  tourism. My prediction-SEVEN GAMES-YANKS!!! On to the TRADES.

SUGAR-hit "nose bleed" levels with contract highs on Monday (11.40) capping a 10 day run from 9.35. A 33% retrace would bring Mar down to 10.70 and it might as well then fill the "gap" it left at 10.46 last week. DEC options have several weeks and the 1050 PUTS go for about 13 points ($11.20 per pt.) If you are BULLISH longer term the JAN CALLS after this predicted dip takes place will be much more reasonable

SWISS FRANC-barely survived the Triple Bottom and it seems it was a knee jerk reaction to other currencies and the depressed Stock Markets affects on them. SELLING just above the 5700 level looks ideal. Depending on the overnight price high a Strong area of resistance is at 5731. SHORT at 5711 and 5719 worth a stop at 5733 could show a solid return with exit targets of  5637 and 5611.

10/17/00

                 Many pundits out there are touting as NOW (again?) is the time to buy "undervalued" stocks. For most, this entails "doubling up" on a losing position and many do not have the full capital to "buy and hold" since margin calls are the only reason your broker calls any more. So IF indeed the Stock Market REBOUNDS How can the "little guy" reap a bountiful harvest? Stock Index OPTIONS (The DOW, S&P and NASDAQ are ALL FUTURES) offer the opportunity for an investor to attempt to recoup some of his losses without overextending. Say your $500,000 portfolio is down 40% ($200,000) it would be nice if you could plunk down $300,000 to dupe your holdings (which ironically mimic the NASDAQ) but you don't have that type of "loose" cash. Do you have 10% of that?? If your scenario seems similar to this than I advise you to contact Myself, Michel P. Saponara, or one of My Associates, and we will outline an "inverted pyramid" options strategy where a good bounce can get you "back in the ball game". Just in case you did not know (and I am letting you in on a tightly held secret ) Commodity Options are RISKY, Volatile and -OK I'll say it- DANGEROUS Markets where you can lose ALL you invest.   'NUFF SAID!!!

ORANGE JUICE-a calm little market (realative to most) that jumped up a penny (100 points=$150) testing the upper limits of a LONG down trend. Is it over? NAW-with a settlement of 73.85 for JAN I expect no more than a retest of yesterday's high of 74.20. Breakout fravtal is 74.60 and stops to either protect shorts or to enter the market long should be placed just above this point. Until harsh weather or the return of the Med fly occurs this breakfast drink will drift toward its triple bottom an touch 70.00. Cold Storage report is released AFTER the market closes on Friday but SHORT today may put you way ahead of the game by then.

S&P-seems poised to at least take out stops above the 1400 level and with the '87 crash anniversary approaching (as well as OCT option expiration-FRIDAY) I see PUTS as a good investment for the next few days (after 1400 is touched) a 1385 PUT, for example may be had for 5 points later today (in the MINI one point 1.00=$50, big one is $250). Several types of plays can be set-up for the rest of the week (including protected futures positions) by using the options today.  Those who "have no fear" of the "specter of doom" can still get in on the upside. Don't forget PLACE LIMIT ORDERS and do not CHASE the market-let them come to you.

10/16/00

Due to certain Time restraints and other factors there will be TWO "Glasses" (for
most) today. On to SOME trades.

SOYBEANS-were written about last Monday and I QUOTE " NOV broke a pivotal fractal (4.82) with a low of 4.81 1/2 on Thursday . Friday's retracement "cleanout" up to 4.88 3/4 signals a continue DOWN TREND with the next level of support being 4.61 1/2. SELLING on a STOP at 4.82 (now a triple bottom) should produce a winning position. 475 PUTS for 4
cents (which expire on the 21st) are the options play." Well 4.65 was Friday's low and today I expect that bounce at 4.61. A daytrade on the long side can be ventured here with a 4.58 3/4 stop, A futures contract can be bought to "LOCK IN" a profit from the 475 put, OR you can look to get short on a retracement up to the 470 level (I would sell at 4.69 1/2. DOWN is still where these legumes are headed. LONG WHEAT/SHORT BEANS is still a top notch SPREAD.

STOCK MARKET-advice is being issued by "millions" but what is "correct"? I like one of Clint's old sayings (that's EASTWOOD") "a Man's got to know his limitations" for it is
appropriate. With wild daily swings (increased volatility) the "normal" stops that I use have become somewhat useless (3 points stop in mini S&P last about 15 seconds). Should I Increase these protective orders (take MORE RISK?)? NO a more prudent method is to either abandon the "quick scalping" or follow the trend closer and hold positions for a "Bigger winner". Today may present a perfect example since it is a Monday (trends in the Stock Market carry over from the weekend STRONG on Monday's) let the overnight trend establish itself (if DOW is up 50 that is a bullish trend and "ride" it up to 100) and follow it to your profit level.

10/11/00

Speculators are MANY things and superstitious, I believe, is one of them. So FYI this FRIDAY, the 13th, is also the FULL harvest MOON in a around the  anniversary of the "BIG CRASH" in '87 is chock full of "BAD KARMA".  Incidentally, "ONEGLASS VIEWPOINT" is NOT A FREE SERVICE. Those of you (and you KNOW who you are) who insist on "stroking   brokers" into thinking that you are on the verge of opening an account (when you are  really trading elsewhere) are OUT OF TIME. I will DILIGENTLY remove all "DEAD WOOD" from my address book this weekend. I send my E-Letter to
prospects for the purpose of observing my trading style and analytical abilities. ALL my trades are NOT WINNERS, but I do have my moments (gave you all HEATING OIL LAST WEEK- up over 7.00 since Friday and there is STILL TIME). If this is not for you FINE, but if you have recently considered testing the "waters of the Futures World" then NOW IS THE TIME. By Eking me back or contacting us by phone further details about account openings can be discussed. Do Not Forget FUTURES TRADING is VERY RISKY and it is possible to lose all of your investment, even in options. With that commercial for the NFA over with, On to the TRADES.

WHEAT-took out at 472 (as foretold last week) and is now (of course in my not-so-humble opinion) on its way to the next fractal level in the DEC at 2.88. No particular trade here (since why would you listen to me today if you did not get long already) except to place a BUY at 470 1/2 with a tight stop at 267 3/4 both for positioning and DAYtrading.

SILVER and GOLD-are "primed" with the "I" word being bandied around and the PPI report due Friday. Silver option strike are very far apart (25 cents) so $100 (2 cents) gets you 525 DEC CALLS and in the GOLD 290 CALLS for $150 should not "break the bank". These two markets have been know to be "dogs" but they occasionally have their day, BE THERE, ALOHA.

10/10/00

         Monday was not the "snoozer" that many (me?) expected in the Futures World. Stock Market had a fast and quick early tumble, recovered slightly only to fail in the end (NASDAQ down over 100), but overnight action is pointing toward a higher opening look to sell retracements. SUGAR shot up 38 and the ENERGIES even joined the party led by HEATING OIL (told YA) up 2.55. New York is preoccupied with the thoughts of a "Subway Series" and the money (TV and such) says GO WITH IT. On to the TRADES.

SUGAR-opened quietly and then BANG!!! Mar filled the minor "GAP" at 10.26 then "took no prisoner" running STOPS up to 10.48 where it pulled back to the mid 10.30's and closed making highs of 10.50. Was it "Floor Games" (volume was DOUBLE friday's but open interest basically UNCHANGED) or is another rally to 11.00 "in the cubes" ? My answer lies in MY trade. A COMBO CALENDAR OPTION play executed separately but all with the same underlying (futures contract month). Each one point is worth $11.20. BUY (GO LONG) 1 NOV 1050 PUT for 12, One DEC 950 for 11 and One JAN 900 for 13. With those premiums the total risk is $492 plus costs. In a trade like this the RISK is LIMITED to the amount you paid for the options (plus comm.) NO MARGIN, No additional funds needed.

10/09/00

Not exactly a "real" holiday (but us Italians will take it) since the bulk of markets
are OPEN. Only the Currencies and Bonds are closed. Expect some very quiet activity
in most futures and this could be a perfect "scalping"(Getting in and out of daytrades
with a minimal profit) day in the stock market . Even when doing this USE A TIGHT
STOP, one NEVER knows.
Reports for this week are also light . Import Prices on Thursday will show we are
PAYING more (+0.8% verse =0.2%) and Initial Jobless claims will also rise slightly.
Friday my favorite "inflation indicators" are due-PPI (Producer Price Index) may be up +
0.5% from -0.2% and up 0.1% EXCLUDING Food and ENERGY. Retail Sales are also
on the rise expected to increase to +0.6% verse +0.2%. On to the TRADES.

HEATING OIL-has been touted here as "THE PLAY" for the upcoming months since
not only are supplies of CRUDE low but the REFINING capacities throughout the East
are at near maximum levels so increases in demand can not be met. What will increase
demand? How about one of the coldest winters in the last decade! I have a saying
which I learned from my years on the "floor". When the ENERGY BROKERS have to
wear gloves to work (exchange is here in NYC) BUY, BUY, BUY!!! DEC BULL CALL
SPREADS are the BEST way to play this market for the Mid-term. Properly executed a
10 cent spread may be had for a penny risk ($420 to receive $4200 minus cost).

SOY BEANS- NOV broke a pivotal fractal (4.82) with a low of 4.81 1/2 on Thursday .
Friday's retracement "cleanout" up to 4.88 3/4 signals a continue DOWN TREND with
the next level of support being 4.61 1/2. SELLING on a STOP at 4.82 (now a triple
bottom) should produce a winning position. 475 PUTS for 4 cents (which expire on
the 21st) are the options play.

10/06/00

One DAYTRADE as promised!
DOW JONES-down 98 points at 107.50. Drop from 108.90 this morning to a low of
108.10-180 points. I always like the Friday trend and a 33% retracement of this drop give me a SELL at 108.74 with a TIGHT stop at 108.91 risking $160. Those who prefer a TAD more risk can SELL a second Dec Dow at 108.89 and place the stop(s) at 109.06. Have a Great afternoon.

10/05/00

     Presidential election 5 weeks away and there are many Questions. Will the Democrats try to release MORE OIL to sway eastern voters? Can a continued slump in the Stock Market derail the Gore Express?? Any chance Dick can help
Bush??? My answers are NO and (not to jinx myself) I am "hot" this week (Monday one trade BIG NASDAQ WINNER Tues SUGAR hit the top likewise Wed's COCOA). Will skip any more bravado and go on to the TRADES.

SUGAR-for those who missed the past few writings, Broke 10 cents on the close yesterday (10.03 high) and my target was (is?) 1009-11 Place a SELL for POSITION trading at that level and ANOTHER at 1023 with a stop at 1033. YES this is more risk than I usually use but the is a "questionable GAP" at 1028 but I would not worry about it being filled since the OCT did not have it. By the way it is time to BUY PUTS
(JAN 950 and long term MARCH 900)

HEATING OIL-for NOV settled at 96.34 and has be the most technically oriented of the energies expect this to be the BIG WINTER WINING trade which I will get into later this week (unless you want to CALL ME 877-849-4685 ex 211). As for today the short term downtrend line suggests that 100.00 will trade by the weekend and then fall back to fill the"gap" from last friday's close. Can it fill the gap first an then explode??? SURE it can, but analysts can't be wishy washy (can't believe I used that term) so I will stick with up-down-and WAY-UP. If daytrading today WAIT for the opening range (first 5 min) and place a BUY STOP (to enter) just ABOVE THE HIGH. Don't risk more than half a cent (50 points =$210).

10/04/00

Round one of the debates are over and though there was no clear cut winner (according to the media) My favorite line came from Gov Bush . After jawing with Mr. Gore over the lower class coverage of medicare "DUBBYA" asked the moderator for "A question about the WEALTHY". Still stand by my original
selection in this race even though that is not who I am voting for. Marketwise "Big
AL" (Greenspan) is thinking like me. He too feels that inflation is just around the
corner only he is not giving any advice to investors on how to profit from such a
scenario, I am (or at least will in an upcoming "SPECIAL GLASS" soon to be
released to the general public). On to the TRADES.

COCOA-heads the commodity section of the WSJ today as continued unrest in the Ivory Coast led to a strong (for cocoa) up day. Hype like this has appeared several
times over the past year and the results have been the same-two or three up days followed by the standard collapse. With DEC opening up at 805 and the short term
trend expected to continue BUY at 797 with a VERY tight stop at 789 (risk $90)
with an exit area of 828. Market could top out at 838 where I will be looking at the
DEC PUTS 800 strike. Nov options expire on Friday but there is not much play
there unless you want to buy the 800 PUTS to protect the LONG position.

CURRENCIES-were relatively quite pending yesterday's FED "no action" and
now focus on the ECB's (European Central Bank) Thursday meeting where a decision will be made regarding the rate of the EURO (they WON'T raise it). OPTIONS for OCT expire on FRIDAY and with US and Canadian unemployment figures due that morning strength in the DOLLAR seems apparent. I LIKE JYEN 9250 PUTS for 18 points ($225) and SWISS 5800 PUTS (at the money) for 30 points. Since the JYEN is a little weak right now (down 35) wait for a "pop" to 9300 before DAYTRADING on the SHORT side with a stop at 9312.

I am BULLISH
WHEAT, SUGAR, GOLD, HEATING OIL, COPPER

I AM BEARISH
MEATS, SOY BEANS, SWISS, NASDAQ

10/03/00

     SUGAR-is reacting as expected since the OCT contract dropped off the board on Friday at 9.77. March (next real active month) is still in a bearish mode (long term) but I recommend staying LONG till the 10.00 cent area is broken (1009-11 is my target) at that point BUY JAN 950 PUTS for 16 points and watch for the collapse.

Wheat-has many technicals abounding starting off with a potential double top at 273. Normally I would look to short the market at this point for a daytrade but LONG term chart looks like "Gap City" and a breakout at 273 will result in a jump to 288 (gap one) and then a "stones throw away" to $3.00 for gap 2. BUY NOV 280 CALLS for 2 1/2 cents (less than $150) and DEC 280 for 5 cents. If daytrading on the long side wait for a retest of 265.

10/02/00

       Finally have "iced" all the communications problems. Decided to to send out the
Monday glass at noon in the hopes of spotting a few Mid-daytrades. Tomorrow the FED and "BIG AL" get together and will hold off on any further rate moves yet will still raise some concerns over inflation. Leading Indicators should remain unchanged (-0.1%) and New Home Sales are predicted to be way down 889,000 compared to 944,000 previously. Weds Factory Orders will rise slightly from -7.5% to -1.9% and car sales are off 2.0 mill. Initial Jobless claims for last week are up to 302,000 from 287,000 and Friday (along with currency option expiration) the unemployment figures are released and are expected to be unchanged at 4.1%. On to the trades

NASDAQ-no one likes down days (or weeks) and regardless of how far something can fall there is little energy toward "betting on the dump". Friday was such an occurrence as stock market took no prisoners ."Gaps" this week should be a primary focus of day traders. NASDAQ started off the week strong but is up only 10 points right now and a SELL at 3638 with a stop at 3652 ($280 risk) is the MIDDAY PLAY.