NOVEMBER

 

11/30/00

This advisory usually departs prior to 8:00 am est and did so yesterday only, from what I understand, was not received by many until after NOON. My server has no explanation but states this should not occur again. We shall see. On to the TRADES.

JYEN-listed as bullish yesterday and it dropped as low as 90.10 BUT we were correct since our bullishness was based on what we stated TUESDAY "JYEN-missed taking out 90.00 with a 90.28 low. "GAPS" abound above and the first to be filled is 91.04 where I would venture a SELL to set up a double bottom back down at 90.11. With OPTIONS expiring in 11 days CALLS may be the hidden play AFTER this
next up-down move." So get your calls while the going is good.

ORANGE JUICE-at 77.60 has experienced a Frost Fear rally that should subside the remainder of the week. Not a great daytrading market but a SELL at 77.85 with
a stop at 78.55 (100 points is $150) could net two cents by nightfall or Five cents by next tuesday.

11/29/00

Commentaries have been short as time, technology, and the markets themselves have
posed some non-normal problems. On to the trades.

PORK BELLIES-flirted with limit down (300 points $1200) at 60.95 in the FEB. Slide should continue till the key 60 cent level is cracked. Though it seems like a good SELL at 61.00 to take a penny (1 cent $400) I would wait to BUY at 59.80 with a 59.35 STOP and look for Monday's settlement price (above 62.00) for a nice profit on a daytrade.

ENERGIES-slumped prior to the API (bearish) report last night and I was a tad off on my SELL in the CRUDE yesterday (they took the HIGH print ,35.10, out just after I sent the second "glass")  Still see some weakness but beware WINTER may be coming to the East coast and with a BIG drop in HEATING OIL it is almost AGAIN time to play the shorter term options (which have proved to be very lucrative in the past)

I AM BULLISH
GOLD, SOY BEANS, B POUND, YEN, OJ

I AM BEARISH
COCOA, SUGAR, CORN, SWISS, NASDAQ, CATTLE, COPPER

11/28/00
JYEN-missed taking out 90.00 with a 90.28 low. "GAPS" abound above and the first to be filled is 91.04 where I would venture a SELL to set up a double bottom back down at 90.11. With OPTIONS expiring in 11 days CALLS may be the hidden play AFTER this next up-down move.

part II A few DAYTRADES that I have spotted:

JYEN-------hit the 91.00 level and is at 9112 SELL one here and an other at
9120 with stops at 9124 (tight since we may only get one).
COCOA---------for March is at 724, again a SELL right here with a $70 stop (731)
exit 701.
CRUDE OIL-------high is 35.10 at 35.02 SELL at 35.19 with a 35.32 stop. LOWS
(3475) may be taken out by NOON. API report comes out tonight.

11/27/00

           DUBYA is in (for now) but the crying is not over. With so many days between
"real" trading days I will send out a NOON version with the week's info and some more market insight. Till then here are a few quick views.  

SOY BEANS-immediately "gapped" 4 cents from its pre-Thanksgiving close of 491 1/2 and hit highs within ten minutes at 502. Barring a big overnight move a SELL above $5.00 (in the JAN) with a tight stop (503 1/4) and an aggressive target of 492 1/4. OVERALL must remain BULLISH since next fractal is 413 1/2 and filling this gap will allow for some option buying.

SUGAR-has been closed for four days and left us with a "possible" double
top (10.01 NOV 1st and 9.98 on 11/22 {Wed}) "gap" still remains at 10.23 so here is the tight play. SELL one Mar at 9.97 and one at 10.02 with a STOP for THREE (so you can go long) at 10.08 with a chance to scratch everything at 10.22. On the DOWNSIDE, if we are right, 9.00 is not unreasonable a target. Look at two week JAN PUTS.

NOON UPDATE

BUSH STILL NEXT PRESIDENT, for those that miss the daily update. As for this
week's economic activity Tuesday will feature the Consumer Confidence survey which will be bullish up almost 3 points at 138.0, and advanced Durable Goods, going the other way, at -2.15 from Sept's +3.0%. Preliminary GDP may take some steam out of the market by Wed if it is only up 2.4% which would be down 0.3% from the previous Quarter. Initial Jobless Claims for last week are expected to be down 21,000 at 315,000 but that is mostly seasonal activity. Thursday will also have the Personal Income number-+.1% from +1.1% and Personal Consumption, +.2%from +.8%.  Finally on Friday the NAPM (national association of purchasing managers will show a slight increase of 0.2 from 48.3 last month. DECEMBER OPTIONS for the STOCK INDEXES expire on the 14th as the TRIPLE WITCHING on the 15th will soon be upon us.

S&P-gapped up on the OPEN to 1356.00 and continued to 1367.00 as today's HIGH. Right now it is at 1358.00 and seems to be headed back to UNCHANGED on the day. a B---S SELL but SHORT at 1359.75 with a stop at 1361.75 is a $100 dollar risk in the MINI and may be a $500 to600 winner.

11/22/00

OK, for those who POSITIVELY, ABSOLUTELY have to TRADE today here is a
mid-morning ONEGLASS DAYTRADE SPECIAL. I do primarily trade OPTION accounts as that is best way to control the risk (only BUYING puts or calls) but I do recommend to present and future clients that you allow me to handle TWO accounts for YOU, one with OPTIONS ONLY and the second for DAYTRADING. This is a form of diversification in itself and a very good way to track returns. As long as you understand that the past recommendations (whether winners or losers) are no definite indication of future performance I will be more than happy to provide you with the necessary information to get started in the FUTURES WORLD of ONEGLASS. 'NUFF SAID

S&P-getting pounded (down 15) with a low at 1337.50. BUY ,for the bounce, MINI's at 1337.00 and 1335.25 with stops at 1333.50. SMALL RISK with BIG POTENTIAL.
HEATING OIL-options expire on MONDAY Exchange is CLOSED THURS,FRI,SAT, and SUN so TIME EROSION it HUGE. While it is RISKY (what isn't) SELLING the 300 point STRANGLE is the play.

11/21/00

A very "soft" week for the futures markets. FRIDAY ALL NY markets will be closed, CHICAGO will close by 1:10 est as will the stock market in NY. As I mentioned before a week like this produces flat and thin markets which make for quick stop clearing spikes and difficult daytrading. NO ONEGLASS will be written since I don't think anyone should be trading (bet some football games instead). As for today I will present mostly tips and
methods to play this game.  Quick rules we all know yet often break ( it does take a lot discipline to trade, successfully)

 

11/20/00

We all have opinions (trade wise), and if we look at them very closely we might find more losers than winners. WHY? Most times it is because we over think a play. Regardless of the News (fundamentals) the Charts (technicals) show all. It is not an easy task to break old habits and not trade with your "heart" but the as the wise ( and profitable) man says, with your head. I am no sage (way too young) but the experiences I have and the situations I have seen make me believe all the more in the improbable and thus the more likely. The general public is WRONG 80% of the time.  Are YOU one of THEM??? On to the TRADES.

SWISS FRANC-is just in the midst of its fall ANY RALLY up to 56.03 should be SOLD vigorously. STILL:: SELLING CALLS *fractal WAS triggered.

ORANGE JUICE-should not be bought on short term hype (yet?) BIG play is SELL JAN STOP at 73.80 to initiate a short position with bottoms at 70 cents to then be tested.

SOY BEANS-has frigid weather pushing it toward $5.00 in the JAN bit real play is SELL potential double top at 4.89 3/4 (top at 491) with a tight STOP REVERSE (be careful) at 492 1/4.  UPside could be $5.15 with a doubling up at 573 downward.

11/17/00

With BOND, Stock Index, and Grain options ALL expiring today (a Friday) and a WEAK WEEK upcoming (short day on Wed Closed Thurs, and Friday worst trading day of year (good for shopping though!) I see no reason to take new positions TODAY. An erratic day is expected and towards the end thinness and possible last minute volatility all make for taking the day slow, if bothering to take it at all. SEE YA ALL MONDAY!!!
MICHEL P SAPONARA

11/16/00

      This election situation is a mess and simply put should follow NFL replay rules which means in order to reverse the call made on the field (BUSH WINS FLA) the replay must CLEARLY show Gore as the winner (which it can't) thus the PLAY STANDS and DUBYA is the President (now just get Vegas to pay off). Semi quite day for the markets yesterday but I see fireworks today with the S&P reaching as high as 1424.00 (settled at 1397.50.  Still have a shot to buy the ONE DAY OPTION (really 30 hour) in the form  of the NOV which expires tomorrow. On to the TRADES.

SUGAR-is heading south after touching the 920 area it will now seek a new
short term bottom.Jan options are the play with the 850's for 12-15 points
($11.20 per point) the most viable.

SOY BEANS-can't go up even with questionable weather patterns across the
country which simply means they will GO DOWN. "GAP"at 484 was filled
yesterday as an additional signal For a DAYTRADE SELL JAN at 483 1/4
with a 486 1/4 stop. The 470 JAN PUTS are not too expensive for the return
that they may show.

SWISS FRANC-could drop over 100 points in the next two days (according
to my calculations) YOU TAKE IT FROM THERE!!!

 

11/14/00

There exists a never ending battle between TECHNICIANS and FUNDAMENTALISTS (not the religious group) over which method is more analytically correct. I am of the school of the former yet do not discard the philosophies of the latter. My reasons are sound and simple. Whether it is Earnings per share, Crude inventories, or Bean stocks I leave it to the 90 pencil pushers at Merrill to dissect the data and reassemble it into a "tangible #" which may equal $4.80 per bushel. Will Beans ONLY trade at $4.80 till the next report?? Of course NOT! The price will gyrate, find support/resistance at different levels for various users/producers and leave an indelible footprint for me to analyze-THE CHART.
         FED Chief "BIG AL" Greenspan will speak tomorrow and his words are
expected to "ease" the pressure on the STOCK MARKET.So with no further adieu on to the (DAY) TRADES.

S&P- "BOUNCED" nicely from the 1338 level.At that time 1400 NOV CALLS went
for 3.00 points ($150 for a mini). Will it be in the money by Friday? Judging by past
performances (which are not necessarily indicative of future results {I have to say that}) I say YES. Overnight has some strength (up 7.00) and for a DAYTRADE try to BUY the DIP back to the GAP meaning GO LONG AT YESTERDAYS settlement price 1358.

SOY BEANS- JAN, at $4.76 1/4 rallied 5 cents on Monday and with some possible delivery pressure being exerted on the NOV contract, AND a "GAP" at 4.84 on the chart I say BUY at 475 1/4 with a 472 1/2 stop (risk $137.50) and a exit REVERSE at 483 3/4. This scenario might take two days to complete. If this rally continues to the gap look at the DEC serial PUTS very closly.

11/14/00

Besides the Stock Market, which received a boost with early rumblings about what
"BIG AL" has planned for it. Divergence has been apparent on the charts with the DOW being the Strongest and the NASDAQ lagging. TODAY is the day that reverses itself (at least for a day) While a tad risky (you must be quicker than usual) TRADING LONG NASDAQ SHORT S&P throughout the day should show a decient profit by "martini time". On to the TRADES.

     COCOA-has now indeed shattered contract lows and while no "true" bottom is in another"bounce" to 711 is due. I rarely recomend OPTIONS over 4 weeks but the MARCH 850 CALL for 15 points ($150) is a "time bargain" so many thing can occur and since this market has been going down the tubes for over a year this is a GOOD VALUE PLAY. Given the time till expiration this trades costs about 75 cents a day. Where else but in the futures market!

11/13/00
GOOD DAY,
Or is it? Stock Market getting "hammered" in the overnight (DOW off over100) and the signs of an Ugly Monday are there. Keep in mind that before any rebound occurs it is preceeded by "cleanouts" of this nature. Options for the NOV stock Indexes expires on Friday and for those who STILL think this is a temporary over exaggerated drop BUYING CALLS (need I say "CHEAP") would be the wise play to recoup portfolio losses. DO NOT just "pick a strike price" and place a market order (the floor is merciless). Use limits, FOK (Fill or Kill), and significant numbers (to aid liquidity later on). Let's TRADE.

SWISS FRANC-has two key technical numbers (four if we look at targets) 5620 and 5749 are fractal within fractals that if broken will signal major moves.Hard to gauge the overnight movements and DEC options are pricey due to time value but by placing the following orders with profit objectives of 40 points ($500) or above and stop losses of 11 points (after the order is triggered) this potential move can be caught. BUY, on a STOP, at 5723 or SELL, on a STOP, at 56.47. For those who SELL OPTIONS if either of the trade numbers are hit SELL the opposite option (if Short SELL CALLS).

COCOA-will soon hit the 711 "bounce" level. GO LONG at 715 and 711 with stops at 698 and a retest profit area of 754.

CORN-is not the fastest mover but is sinking slowly. With DEC options expiring on Friday do not see any more upward movement. SELL DEC at 212 3/4 with a modest 215 1/4 stop and look to exit at 207 1/4 just above the "GAP".

 

11/10/00

Want to take a monument to pay tribute to all the Veterans who have bravely defended our country throughout the past century. I am pleased to honor you all today, Thank you.  Still no President and the world is laughing at us in the form of a weakening Stock Market. Technicals and additional bullish data may help pull out of this spiral yet it may only be  short term relief. On to the TRADES.


S&P-dipped to 1378.50 before rebounding to the 1400.00 level. Risky business daytrading when traditional support/resistance seems to be out the window. So how can we play this future if we think "DUBYA" will be elected??? Fortunately the NOV options have one week to go which makes them affordable and practical in a very volatile environment. With any type of "dip" back to the low 1390's the 1430-1450 CALLS (NOV) should cost between 8 to 3 points ($250 per point for a "big" one and $50 for the MINI). Some would say that it is TOO FAR AWAY but keep in mind that last week these options were "in the money"! BUY in multiple of TWO with seven days to go.


CRUDE OIL-did not have the banner day that the Heating Oil did (up 68)
and thus becomes a SELL as the heat hit the key 100.00 level and backed off.
SELL DEC CRUDE at 34.09 with a 34.37 stop (each point is worth $10) look
for a drop back to 33.11


SWISS FRANC-has enjoyed upward movement due to other factors than its
own strength and is at a pivotal point today. Settling at 57.15 expect a "pop"
up to my SELL area of 57.31 with a STOP REVERSE at 57.42. Down side
ride contract to the mid 56.60's.

11/09/00

        In this modern age of technology the Greatest country on the planet can't even figure out who will lead it, and I'am supposed to come up with winning futures trades?? PPI and CROP PRODUCTION reports are released this morning (making forcasts for Gold, Silver, Financials, and Grains moot till then) as well as the "unknown" state of the Union make prognastication almost unfeasible today. Add to that mix Option expirations on Friday and we are left with trading "EGGS". Won't do it, not prudent. SEE YA FRIDAY.

I am BULLISH
WHEAT, SUGAR, GOLD, HEATING OIL, COPPER

I AM BEARISH
MEATS, SOY BEANS, SWISS, NASDAQ, COCOA

11/08/00

U.S. Presidential Election Results Unclear, Fla. to Recount Vote!!!

GOOD MORNING AMERICA,
Not the best way to start a trading day and as you can imagine many things are "on hold". Stock Market rallied big when it was announced that BUSH was elected and Gore conceded, but all has since been retracted. In a "nutshell" BUY BONDS if GORE is declared the winner, go LONG STOCK MARKET if it is DUBYA.

COCOA-not too affected by Presidential election and with Monday's
high of 758 and fractal at 764, in a bearish market SELL DEC at 757 and
761 with a stop at 767.

11/06/00

Tomorrow is Election Day and there will be NO "ONEGLASS VIEWPOINT" as history has shown this to be a "thin" trading day. Multiple reports proliferate the week and here is the rundown. Tuesday's Consumer Credit number will be $9.0 Bill verses a previous $13.4 Bil. Import Prices, down 1.3%, Wholesale Inventories, down 0.2% and Wholesale Sales ,unch, are out Wed and Thursday features the PPI (Producer Price Index) which is expected to be "soft" at 0.2% from last month's 0.9%. FRIDAY (Veterans Day) options  for Gold, Silver, Cotton, Coffee, and Sugar ALL EXPIRE. On to the TRADES.

HEATING OIL-not "burning down the house" yet but with the Merc Brokers coming in today with hats and gloves expect some upward action. 3 weeks to go in the DEC option and a combo of HEATING OIL CALLS and CRUDE OIL PUTS (expire in 11 days) will give you much flexibility (as well as some protection) in these very volatile markets.


Wheat-soared to $2.64 (hey didn't I say BUY at 250 3/4??) and now may retest 2.60 before continuing up to the eventual $3.00 level. On a day trade BUY DEC at 260 1/4 with a TIGHT 257 3/4 stop and a 268 3/4 exit by days end.


COCOA-hit 747, contract lows (also predicted here last week), and while many will be buying with stops at 735-728 I see a HUGE DROP to 711, YES 711, where a BIG bounce will then take place. SELL on the open with a stop at 756 and reverse at the 716-13 area and send me an early Christmas gift.

11/03/00

Unemployment numbers due at 8:30 and market is UP (S&P 5.50) Look to SHORT after opening (9:30) if significant "GAP" remains. Trading tip day consists of one of my favorites-the "AUTO TRADE". It is named such because (if you have done your homework and set proper risk and return objectives) once placed it need not be attended to again. The main aspect is the OCO (Order Cancels Order) and though many brokers (and exchanges) refuse to take them (too much work) a few commodities still permit them. Using the currencies as an example (they take them) we "get LONG JYEN at 9422. The following order is then placed. SELL JYEN at 9454 OCO 9399 STOP OCO MOC. What this means is that we want to take profits if 9454 is hit (which will then AUTOmatically cancel the stop) if we are stopped out at 9399 the limit is canceled and if the market does not hit either of our targets then we will exit our daytrade at the market on the close (MOC-Market On Close) this form of trading not only helps you stick with you "game plan" but just in case things get hectic in other areas you will not be "Stuck" in the market overnight. On to the TRADES.

SLIVER-bottomed at close yesterday with new CONTRACT LOWS and with option expiring next Friday and the PPI (Producer Price Index) due also some good plays can be made. BUY the "CHEAP" 475 DEC CALLS and either "hold and pry" or try to SELL a contract at 477 to "lock in" both sides of the market.

BREEDERS CUP-will have TWO CHALK WINNERS-RIBOLETTA AND
FUSAICHI PEGASUS AND MY LONG SHOT PICK IS --SHE'S A DEVIL DUE.
PLAY THESE THREE (WIN AND PLACE) AND YOU SHOULD REAP A FINE
HARVEST.

11/02/00

Have YOU ever spoken with ME (Michel P. Saponara) about opening an account???
Then why am I STI:: sending this to YOU??? If you have any interest in trading the FUTURES markets CALL (877-849-4685 ex 211) or E-mail TODAY (YES this IS another of those "Termination notices") I will be waiting in the mean time here is a play for today.

JYEN-on a roll after touching 3 month lows early in the week. Up 30 points in over night due mostly to weak stock market in ASIA. GAP formed yesterday makes the retracement back to 9250 a high possibility. Yen could be on way to 90.00 but not tomorrow. OPTIONS are at that 24 hour area in the currencies and inexpensive PUT plays abound both here and in the SWISS FRANC.9250 NOV PUT for YEN is the BEST VALUE.

11/01/00

Plenty of economic data released today making Pre=Forcasting of the stock market a little too difficult so we will pass and offer some DAYTRADES and OPTIONS in other markets today.

SUGAR-did not break 10.00 (or fill my SELL at 998 from yesterday) and since it settled at 9.90 all factors now point to a run up to 10.26 to fill the "GAP" left last week. So as not to get "trapped" BUY,on a STOP, 10.02 and then place a protective Sell Stop at 989 with a 10.24 exit objective (also a good place to go SHORT)

SWISS FRANC-has formed a classic bear flag and should now continue its drop to 55.00 and below. With OPTIONS expiring on Friday the 5550 PUTS at less than $200 each are the short term strategy.


HEATING OIL-for NOV settled at 94.10 and has been the most technically oriented of the energies. Expect this to be the BIG WINTER WINING trade which I will get into later this week (unless you want to CALL ME 877-849-4685 ex 211). As for today the short term downtrend line suggests that 92.95 will trade on a fall back to fill the "gap" DEC options outright or JAN spreads seem the best way to approach this highly volitile complex.