DECEMBER

12/18/00

Monday's are often a difficult day to prognosticate since a least two days of news and
other elements have transpired and markets have been closed. Overnights help with "Daytrading (I love "GAPS") but most of that info is not always available to me when I compose The "GLASS". I have started to write a Part Two each monday to help offset that variable. It also contains the upcoming week's Economic data. So expect more form me later but for now, ON to the TRADES.

PORK BELLIES-bull flag formation significant in itself but with FROZEN STORAGE report due this week it might be worth the extra cost for OPTIONS in this often "killer" market (killer being define as a market that has "locked limit" several days in a row in past years and since a limit move is 3 cents or $1200 being caught on the wrong end of a futures position can be a Killer) The Ideal strike is the 70 cent CALL (FEB) for about 200 points ($800) but the 76 (a bit of a stretch but if volatility re-enters the market the prices can explode) call at 80 points is more along the standard "glass" play. Futures settled at 66.90 and if you HAD to go long a dip to 66.20 and stop at 65.45 is the spot.

COTTON-is still viewed here as "bearish beyond belief" with 64.00 level being a triple bottom if/when it is tested (settlement was 65.37). In the meantime, A "GAP" remains at 67.45 and if it is ever filled SELLING CALLS is the aggressive strategy. 6400 PUTS at 60 points (when 67.00 again trades) for MARCH give us plenty of TIME.

12/15/00

A quick explanation, for those who had DEC S&P options, about how  though they "stopped trading" at 4:15 on Thursday their settlement price will not be determined until the opening today. Since the Cash=futures the opening tick for each of
the 500 components will be used to calculate the final price for DEC. This means that an option that seems worthless may find itself "in-the-money" by the time the smoke clears. BOND market seemed to signal their belief that "BIG AL" LOWERS RATES next week for that holiday present everybody is looking for. On to the TRADES.

COCOA-continues to have election uncertainty (sound familiar) but this product is
plentiful. SELL MARCH at 733 with a stop reverse at 742 risking $90 on the short side.

SOYBEANS-has option expiration today and see a dip to $5.00 a perfect spot to "GET LONG" for test of $5.25 later in month.

PORK BELLIES-have formed a bull flag in recent days as market moved from 60.25 to 71.40 in six days and now has retreated for three. At least a double top should form with prices moving north of 700 cents again. 67.00 to 67.50 a fine spot to BUY with stops being about 70 points lower (100 points equals $400 and a LIMIT move is 300 points or 3 cents).

12/13/00

It may be snowing in Texas but the parties are still going on as it seems, over a
month after the election, their Governor has been elected President. Doubt if Gore will stop crying and concede but relief should pour over the Stock Market in the form of a Big UP day. Next week "big AL" Greenspan may deliver an early holiday gift in the form of a rate decrease which will help add some "widow dressing" to battered fund managers portfolio's. And they all lived happily ever after. On to the TRADES.

COPPER-closed at 88.50 (MAR) after filling key technical Gap. Could see a much
higher opening but LONG POSITIONS at this level with a conservative STOP at
87.65 are a solid way to start the trading day. If buying Multiple contracts exit half at
89.95 but do not be surprised to see 92.00 (92 cents) approached by week's end. OPTIONS are not highly recommended here since the serial's (jan in this case) are very low in trading volume and difficult to get out of, while Mar options require too much of a TIME premium.

COTTON-dropped nearly 2 cents (2.00 equals $1000) and left a Huge GAP at 67.42 in the March. I believe that this fiber has been over priced but thinking like that messes up my technical analysis which says to BUY, Preferably on a dip to the 65.00 level. Would look to BUY one contract at 65.10 and another at 64.60 with a stop for both at 64.20 (risk 130 points $650) with a profit objective of 450 points ($2500) if the GAP is filled.

12/12/00

ONLY ONE TRADE:
SOYBEANS- Double top (512 1/2) with previous fractal highs at 513 1/2. For 1 1/2 cents (that's $75) you too can own the 520 JAN CALLS that expire on FRIDAY. Trust me if momentum builds due to bad weather conditions technicals and over abundance of stops will result in high 520's for JAN.

12/11/00

TRIPLE WITCHING highlights this week's events, and the Dec 19th announcement
by the FED (rates down 1/4%??) will be right on its heels. Wednesday IMPORT PRICES are expected to be unchanged (up 0.1% excl petrol) as will be RETAIL SALES. Thursday BUSINESS INVENTORIES is forecast at +0.3%, INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 350,000 (down 2,000), Current account DEFICIT -$114.1 BILL from -$106.1 bil, and Last but certainly not least PPI (producer Price Index) at +0.2% (last month +0.4%). Friday by the time the opening bell tolls CPI (consumer Price Index) UNCH Industrial Production (+0.1%) and Capacity Utilization at
81.9% from 82.1. JAN CRUDE OIL OPTIONS EXPIRE on THURSDAY, and JAN OJ, GRAINS, and US BONDS and NOTES OPTIONS also terminate. GOOD LUCK

Numbers, numbers, numbers. FLA Supreme court rules 4 to 3 for re-count, US Supreme Court Injuncts 5 to 4, Gore wins popular vote by .3% (three tenths) and Bush win Florida (and Electoral college) by .009% (nine THOUSANDTHS). Lets not forget JUST IN CASE Gore gets recount BROTHER Gov. Jeb Bush will insure delegates loyal to Dubya are appointed by Monday ( they don't write "soaps" this good). Since the market collapsed on late Gore victory most expect a bounce right back to prices at 3:45 on Friday (meaning S&P 25-30 higher) I said most The "GLASS" feels a downward trend toward the 1297.00 spot in the DEC ( MARCH is the Front Month for daytrading but the OPTIONS that are expiring on Thursday {settlement on Friday morning} trade verses the DEC which will be equal to the CASH by Thursday) I can not stress enough how good of a speculative vehicle these options are since they provide a limited risk ( I can say that since I speak of BUYING ) for a minimal cost during what will certainly be a VOLATILE week in the Stock Market (TRIPLE WITCHING comes but FOUR times a YEAR). Will send "part TWO" with this week's upcoming Economic data at NOON.

ENERGIES-were simply pounded, Crude down 91 cents-Unleaded 301, and Heat
487, and though focus seems to be on recent supply data. See-saw markets could
see another sustained run if there is more Mid East activity and multiple arctic
blasts hitting the U.S. Jan Crude closest to expiration so a minimal time premium
would be spent. The 29.50's (for 27 points $270)are prime but the 30.50's (maybe
as low as 16) could be sweet! One of each for less than $500).

12/07/00

In still another WILD day in the futures world again we see a perfect example of "the
QUICK(smart) and the DEAD (greedy)" SHORT (as was recommended in yesterday's "GLASS") positions had a bit of a party but those Daytraders who were long without stops found that 10 minutes goes fast with your money on the line. Not only were "Fast Market Lights" (NO RULES) on and the DOW dropped 135 points but the Electronic(mini) S&P's had so many stops and "panic " sell orders that it fell OVER 10 points BELOW the Big S&P which was down 30 ($7,500 per contract). Needless to say this is one reason not to lean on the same side of the boat as everyone else especially during storms. I think I said COUNTER TREND TRADE yesterday (I'll have to check) . Hey did you also see the HEATING OIL??? Well for those who did not SEND CHECKS OR WIRES HEAT was UP a mere 352 points (read 3.52 cents worth $420 per cent or about $1500) and it is already higher on the overnight. Move came AFTER tuesday's API report (timing IS everything) but NOT BEFORE the "GLASS" sent out Tues. morn (AM I making myself CLEAR?). A man once said TRADIN' AIN'T EASY, but its a LIVING, to which the response was DYIN' AIN'T MUCH of a LIVING!!! TODAY you have to SPEAK or E --me personally for the TRADES NUFF SAID!! 877-849-4685 ex 211

12/06/00

Ka-CHING!!!! Is the sound many heard through out the day on Tues. If this continues I will be very BUSY since most people have told me the past two months that would open a new COMMODITIES account if their Stocks came back. I'm rootin for ya's!!! On to the TRADES.

S&P-LEAPED on news that George W. is in the driver's seat. Is it on its way to the 1400.00 level? Risky business daytrading when traditional support/resistance seems to be out the window. So how can we play this future if we think "DUBYA" will be elected??? Well the "news" is in and a COUNTER TREND trade seems to be on the immediate horizon.  Fortunately the DEC options have one week to go which makes them affordable and practical in a very volatile environment. With any type of
"POP up to the low 1390's to 1400 the 1330-1350 PUTS (DEC) should cost between 8 to 3 points ($250 per point for a "big" one and $50 for the MINI). Some would say that it is TOO FAR AWAY but keep in mind that early this week these options were "in the money"! BUY in multiple of TWO with seven days to go.

SWISS FRANC-has enjoyed upward movement due to other factors than its
own strength and is at a pivotal point today. Settling at 58.41 expect a "DIP" down to fill the gap at 58.08 (I would BUY at 58.02 and 57.96 with a two lot STOP at 57.83 if daytrading) and then the THREE DAY OPTION (DEC expires Friday) becomes the play. 58.50 (near the money at this writing) for 16 points ($200) would be a fine purchase

12/05/00

Stock Market "FLYIN'" after FLA court rules against Mr. Gore. May see opportunity to pick up some PUTS after the initial run up till about noon. Weather factors (it is always either too HOT or COLD) sending multiple futures market soaring. On to the trades.

HEATING OIL-is actually down on the overnight but with snow on the horizon for the East coast and an API report due after the markets close any chance to get a LONG position (spreads are preferable) should be leapt upon. I have tried to urge many account holders and readers to send CAPITAL just for this market but many are still on the side lines. WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR???? I have a few strategies that can be implemented this week so SEND THOSE CHECKS!

12/04/00

So George W. Bush is the mostly official president elect of our country, yet the Stock Market  is not too happy which weakens the dollar that forces the Bonds up and gives Some foreign currencies a big boost. Will things turn around or should we "follow the streak"? Momentum is a strong factor in analysis and as the old saying goes " I don't want to be standing on the tracks HOPING the train stops". For the defense the OPTION market is where value lies if one wants to "buck the trend" (most of the money comes from this type of strategy.

            For those not watching the markets today the cold snap that is hitting the eastern seaboard has caused HEATING OIL, NATURAL GAS, and ORANGE JUICE to have sharp upward spikes. Stock Market seems very quite so far (options have 11 days to go.  Report wise Tuesday FACTORY ORDERS (+1.6% last month) are down -3.1%. Wed productivity (+3.5%) and UNIT LABOR COSTS (+2.8%) should not be much of a factor. Thursday CONSUMER CREDIT for OCT will increase by 1.6 BILLION (8.0 from 6.4) which , to me, seems like a LOT (I know if I had 1.6 Billion of ANYTHING it would be BIG). Finally FRIDAY will have a ton of action with UNEMPLOYMENT numbers-Nonfarm Payrolls + 11,000, RATE +0.1% (3.9 prev 4.0 now) and OPTIONS in the following markets will expire-GOLD, SILVER, SUGAR, COFFEE, and CURRENCIES. See you tomorrow.

On to the TRADES.

SWISS FRANC- PUTS are CHEAP because the franc has gone wild the past week. One of those long shot counter trend trades. WaIT TILL noon FOR THE BEST VALUE UNLESS YOU PLACE A VERY AGGRESSIVE ( BELOW SETTLEMENT) PRICE FOR 5750 puts  (dec).

SUGAR- will test 10.00 area again and for a short term play LONG Mar at 9.57 with a 9.47 stop and a REVERSE limit SELL at 9.96. If you can't get long look at the PUTS for JAN (two weeks till EX) on the pop up.

LIVE CATTLE-seems to be ready to form a classic head and shoulders with a spike to 74.65 as the ideal SELL SPOT. Stop should be at 75.07 (cattle is but $4 a point)

12/01/00

Not wanting to risk spending too much time on chatter (especially if server fails again) On to the TRADES.

CURRENCIES-have enjoyed the slump in U.S. stocks but everything corrects. SHORT SWISS/LONG JYEN should prove profitable in most scenarios add JYEN CALLS and SWISS PUTS and next week will open up additional plays (options expire NEXT FRIDAY)

SUGAR-closed at 9.75 and will hover near the 10 cent level one more time before it heads "south for the winter" SELL Mar at 9.96 with a 10.04 stop, small risk strong potential.