JAN 2001

01/31/01

Will be brief as the one trade is highlighted on the Web Site with corresponding chart.

COFFEE- has left a DOUBLE GAP as it descends. OPTIONS for March
expire on the 9th of Feb (10 trading days) and while this is not the time of
Frost and Panic as far as the cafe' beans go it is a PRIME technical play. The
CHART illustrates exactly what I am referring to so Check it OUT!!!
CALLS for half a cent (50 points or $175) may turn a ice profit by next week.

01/30/01

Yes "ONEGLASS VIEWPOINT" is still a DAILY publication, but due to technical difficulties at the Home Office Friday's and Monday's editions were unable to be sent. CLIENTS know how to contact me with questions regarding the days trades and those of you who have been following my recommendations hopefully will join those ranks in the next few weeks.  Highlighting this week's events is the FMOC meeting TODAY and WED where at 2:15 it is expected that "BIG AL" will LOWER RATES BY 1/2% (might send the JYEN and EURO through the roof). Since the Stock Market has been anticipating this for the last few trading days look to SELL any BIG rally after the news is released (Place an "aggressive" limit price well above the market-WITH A STOP). Wednesday 4 Quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released and is slated at Unchanged (+2.2%) from Sept. Thursday has Construction Spending (-0.5%) , Personal Income (+0.2%) and Consumption (0.2%). Friday will feature Unemployment Rate for Jan at 4.1% up 0.1%.

JYEN-is bearish, in my book, but signs point toward a test of the 90.00 level
ESPECIALLY if the rates on the $$$ are dropped (as expected) OPTIONS
expire on 2/9 (week from FRIDAY) and the 8800 CALLS can be had for
approx 14 points ($12.50 per point) GOOD VALUE.

01/25/01

Focus today is on "BIG AL" Greenspans address where here will touch base on
interest rates and Dubya's tax plan. We have one trade scenario that can take advantage of the "unexpected" with, of course, a limited risk.

SWISS-YEN often move in sympathy with each other but could find different supporters in the coming days. FEB OPTIONS have a little over a week to go and that makes them lucrative. To take both side I RECOMMEND SWISS CALLS and YEN PUTS with the down side being where the big profits lie.

01/24/01
Street will be keeping one eye (and an ear) open for "BIG AL's" comments
TOMORROW on the heels of the Labor Cost figures due for release in the morning.
Bond market will also remain in a range until the auction later this morning (Straddle's?).  
2001 TRADING KITS are availible-Contact one of my associates!!!

WHEAT and SUGAR comments for yesterday hold DOUBLY true for TODAY-GO
WITH THEM (bullish in case you forgot)

STOCK MARKET-is up slightly in the overnight and at the BELL (9:30 opening) if the S&P is up more than 5 points SELL SELL SELL. I would even venture to do BIG ONES with a 1.5 point stop. FILLING THE GAP has been a given five out of the last six trading days.

01/23/01

Did not intend to send yesterday's "GLASS" in code, these things happen, so I'll Ax
the chit chat and get to the TRADES.

SUGAR-took out most longs with its recent decent below 10.00 and appears poised to
continue upwards toward 11.00. With ample time left in the MARCH options 3 CALLS strike price 10.50 could be had for about $500 (that may even include the cost of commission {depends WHOM your broker is})

WHEAT-still the strongest of the Grains as it has easily held the low 280 range. With the serial options expiring last Friday the MARCH is the remaining play. Though I do not like TOO much time value in my options the 290 CALLS for less than 3 cents ($150) has excellent value if you see $3.00 wheat as I do. DAYTRADE today would get us LONG at 282 1/4 with a 279 1/2 stop and a 291 1/2 objective. 294 1/2 is the recent top and if that is breached than $3.00 is a lay-up.

HEATING OIL-has done some rallying (we said watch out last week) and with an API
(American Institute of Petroleum) report due tonight , which may show some big
drawdowns in reserves) the FEB OPTION which EXPIRES FRIDAY is inexpensive with good potential. CALL 9000 strike may be a tad pricey at $400 so look at the 9200 outright OR a spread LONG 90/SHORT 96 for about $200.

01/21/01

Light week as far as reports go with Initial Jobless claims (34,000 higher), Employment Cost Index(+1.1%), and Existing Home Sales (down .18 mill) being released Thursday and Durable Goods (-2.0%) on Friday. FEB OPTIONS in HEATING OIL, NATURAL and UNLEADED GAS,  and COPPER EXPIRE. A MULTIPLE number of options and futures trades will be forthcoming this week.

01/18/01

Have not been on fire this week as a couple of trades (cattle and oil) have proved to be as wrong as possible. At least I trade the options which allows me to CONTROL MY RISK and not take a pounding when a market move limit up and I was looking down (Live Cattle Tues) Will remain cautious for the rest of this week until Dubya takes his seat.

S&P- as well as DOW and NASDAQ options expire tomorrow (the JAN) and if the market has a pull back today by noon then a few CALLS may well work to your advantage with after hours earnings and tomorrow mornings data release forthcoming. SMALL RISK for LARGE RETURNS
is the formula, USE IT!

I AM BULLISH
SILVER, SOY BEANS, B POUND,NASDAQ, , OJ

I AM BEARISH
COCOA, CORN, SWISS, CATTLE, COPPER, YEN

01/16/01

A few price moving events are due this week including earnings reports from Intel (today) Microsoft (after market close, and Qualcom. OPEC will have an emergency meeting tomorrow to decide on possible Production cuts. Momentum may build as Dubya's inauguration draws near. On to the TRADES.

ENERGIES-have an API report tonight as well as the OPEC meeting and one thing I have learned is to expect the unexpected. That is why I will look closely at a number of STRANGLES (BUYING a PUT and a CALL an equal distance away from the underlying future in the hopes of catching a BIG move) in all three energies (CRUDE, HEAT, UNLGAS) use the FEB option for HEAT and March for CRUDE.

LIVE CATTLE-has gone through the roof the past four days leaving a spike over 80 with a BEARISH Hammer formation. BUCK the TREND??? YEP, FEB PUTS (FEB) have sufficient time and a minimum cost so what are you waiting for?

01/12/01

Well two out of three AIN'T bad and that was yesterday's daytrade batting average. Let's try
it again.

WHEAT-still my "grain of the week" and in the face of corn and beans dropping like rocks the March wheat still traded up. any price below 287 1/2 in a fine entry spot (on the LONG side) with the STOP that worked yesterday 284 1/2. Double top at 294 1/2 is today's exit.

SUGAR- posted lower lows each of the past three sessions (1022-1017 and today 1014) this is the sign of a BULLISH FLAG. BUY right here (1019 in the march) for both daytrading (exit would be 1038) and longer term play to 11.00.

CRUDE OIL- opening at 29.50 and seems poised to trade up to $30.00. Simply put LONG here with a 29.34 stop (risk about 14 points $140) and exit BEFORE 30.00 is reached.

01/11/01

Seems like a DAYTRADING kinda morning so on to them.

COCOA-at 840 right now and appears to be running out of steam. SELL 839
with an 852 stop and look to fill the gap back at 811.

WHEAT-showed strength in the face of the beans dropping. $3.00 looks
probable in the next week. Today BUY MARCH at 2.86 1/2 with a tight stop
at 284 1/2 (risk $100). Target exit is 292 3/4.

EURO-has gotten its life back and is up 123 at 95.31. Short Term Pull back
seems eminent so either SELL here with a 9542 stop or wait till 9500 re-trades
and get LONG.

01/09/01

The CROP PRODUCTION report, to be released tomorrow, will be the center of
attention for a multiple of markets. Many traders attempt to "get a jump" on various moves that result after data like this by taking Positions, only to find themsleves stuck on the Wrong side and possible "locked" in a limit move. My advice has always been to play these markets (cotton, soybeans, OJ) by using the LONG OPTIONS so as to have a limited risk just in case the "experts" were incorrect . This is why we will offer some DAYTRADES and OPTIONS in a few of these possible movers.On to the TRADES.

SOY BEANS-advice given yesterday holds true for today. The CALLS for FEB (march if you have a ton of cash) 500 and 510 are inexpensive, still have decent time value and are a key levels if some odd numbers appear in the Crop Report. WHEAT is also a solid buy with or without bullishness in the beans.

COTTON-collapsed after taking out its triple bottom at the 6380 level and with the pending report this fiber can see itself back to 55 cents in no time. Historically cotton has moved its limit (300 points $1500) several times on the heels of the Crop data, beware.

SUGAR-did not break 10.00 for a perfect BUY but has removed much doubt , in MY mind, that it is on its way to test the 11.00 cent level. Pullback might only be to 10.34 for more long positions and March 11.00 calls are relativly inexpensive.

01/08/01

Now we start the "real" trading year and while "surprise" events are what makes markets move do not anticipate anything the like of last week. Mixed bag of reports issued this week (and mixed openings for the Stock Indexes). Wednesday Wholesale Inventories and Sales will be up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. USDA CROP PRODUCTION report is also slated for release at 8:30 est (more on that later). Initial Jobless claims for Thur seem to be "soft" at 368,000 (375,000 prev) and Import prices are up 0.1% off 0.1 from last month. Friday has RETAIL sales figures showing some relief at -0.5% and the Inflationary gauge PPI (Producer Price Index) is due in at +0.3% a slight rise from NOV. On to the TRADES.

SOYBEANS-are expected to open 1-2 cents Lower this morning and with the $5.00 finally broken (as we said it would be last week) and the major CROP PRODUCTION report due WED I see a fine opportunity in the FEB OPTIONS which expire in three weeks. right now 5 cents gets you a $5.00 CALL but that may be a tad cheaper after $4.95 is hit in the MARCH contract. That level is also recommended for DAYTRADING today.

01/04/01

I have tried to provide trading TIPS as well as market analysis  and though some things go without repeating others do not. When placing  a trade ALWAYS put in your STOP. WHY?? You just never know when the   U.S. Government wants to SURPRISE you!! Incidentally there should be NO SUCH Surprises by the FED but since Dubya felt that the meeting on the 30th was TOO far away for his liking then I guess BIG AL said LOWER  AWAY. This may only be a short term band aid to a very serious wound  (gee, I sound Bearish). ON TO THE TRADES.

HEATING OIL-has dipped and dropped with many feeling that the Mini Energy crisis has been averted. Well we all have opinions and mine is contrary to most (as usual). With the FEB OIL at 83.50 and the OPTIONS not expiring until the 26th a variety of plays are available for BULLS. I like the LONG 90 CALL/ SHORT 100 CALL for 100 points ($420). Any type of hype or crisis (or more sub arctic temps) will send this market soaring.

JYEN-for a "QUICKIE" trade as the JAN option expires TOMORROW and the YEN sinking to new lows (at least for the past year) may see a REBOUND after the release of the unemployment numbers in the morning. Be Patient and place orders to BUY 8800 CALLS for 11-13 points ($137.50-167.50) if filled consider it a VALUE play for the next 24 hours. (BUY AT LEAST TWO for flexibility).

01/03/01

Got off to a fine start yesterday even though a few markets that we tabbed never got to our price, one must be quick of foot and mind and be able to adjust entry prices accordingly. My apologies that only my customers are able to benefit when I spot these little changes. Again today I will concentrate on so markets that may GAP opeings (energies since the API was released last night) and wait another day before we get into specific OPTION PRICES.

I am BULLISH
WHEAT, SUGAR, GOLD, HEATING OIL, COPPER

I AM BEARISH
MEATS, SOY BEANS, SWISS, S&P,NASDAQ, SILVER

01/02/01

HAPPY NEW CENTURY,
2001 will not have the glitter and sparkle that 2000 started with but everyone hopes it is a better year. A new incoming U.S. President, pressure to lower interest rates,
continued tensions in the Mid East, and bizarre weather patterns will be amongst the key factors that will propel or depress many markets. It will be more difficult than normal to gauge the openings of futures markets on Tuesday since several days have past since we last traded and snow and sub-zero temperatures have hit much of the country over the holiday weekend. I will provide a recap of where most of the commodity groups finished the year and where they MAY be headed.

METALS-have seen better times as SILVER has sunk to near three year lows with March closing at $4.63 making a test of $4.50 almost a lock. GOLD has held itself rather well in comparison with Feb at $473.60. A short term spread LONG TWO FEB GOLD/SHORT ONE MARCH SILVER may produce some quick and surprising profits. COPPER also has been in bearish mode since it broke the 90 cent area in mid Dec Seems headed for a possible double bottom at 82.30 and since March settled at 84.30 a SHORT play near 85.00 is the call.

SOFTS-have SUGAR leading the way after a strong clean out of stops below 10.00 cents and good rebound to close at 10.20. Given the opening range around this price a BUY STOP at 10.33 to GO LONG will be triggered when this fractal is removed 11.00 would be the target. COCOA may have topped last week at 780 (closed at 758 on Friday) and still see TONS of this sweet available. If going SHORT ride down to 711 and look to get long just below 700.

GRAINS-will follow the BEANS so since they are headed back to test the $5.00 level in the March contract (closed at $5.07 3/4)I would not want to be long anything until that time. Watch for any "GAP" openings and DAYTRADE to fill them if over 5 cents.

STOCK MARKET-after five up days (in the S&P) saw a bleak ending to the year with a rather heavy down day. See a continuation in this trend and will be looking to sell rallies that approach the long down trend lines. March S&P closed at 1335 but has given no indication that it will not soon be testing the recent lows at 1270. STAY SHORT.